Predicting Economic Activity in Serbia By Constructing Serbian Leading Economic Indicator (SERLEI)

Sandra S Kamenković; Zoran Grubišić

doi:10.5937/industrija41-4036

Sandra S Kamenković Beogradska bankarska akademija, Fakultet za bankarstvo, osiguranje i finansije
Zoran Grubišić Beogradska bankarska akademija, Fakultet za bankarstvo, osiguranje i finansije

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija41-4036

Keywords: Markov Regime-Switching Model, Time Lag, Economic indicator, Business Cycle,

Abstract

Timely identification of the next stage of the business cycle, or a shift in economic activity from the previous trend, is a critical factor for the success of counter-cyclical economic policy. This paper is based on the construction of a new leading indicator of the business cycle which, with a certain time lag, suggests the next stage of the business cycle in the Republic of Serbia. SERLEI (Serbian Leading Economic Indicator) is tested in the period of expansion and at the beginning of recession in the Serbian economy to show to what extent it was possible to predict a shift in business cycles

Author Biographies

Sandra S Kamenković, Beogradska bankarska akademija, Fakultet za bankarstvo, osiguranje i finansije

Naučna oblast Ekonomija i finansije

Zoran Grubišić, Beogradska bankarska akademija, Fakultet za bankarstvo, osiguranje i finansije

Naučna oblast Ekonomija i finansije

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