ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛНА ОГРАНИЧЕЊА ЉУДСКОГ КАПИТАЛА У ТРАНЗИЦИОНИМ ЕКОНОМИЈАМА: КАДА ОБРАЗОВАЊЕ НЕ ПРОИЗВОДИ РАСТ?
Ključne reči:
људски капитал, институције, економски раст, неусклађеност образовања и тржишта рада, одлив мозгова, иновације, продуктивност, транзиционе економије, Западни Балкан, Србија.
Sažetak
Овај рад анализира однос између образовања, институција и економског раста, са посебним фокусом на проблем неусклађености између акумулације људског капитала и институционалног оквира његове употребе. Иако значајан део литературе наглашава позитивну улогу образовања у подстицању економског развоја, емпиријски налази указују да ова веза није универзална, нити линеарна. Земље са сличним нивоом образовања често остварују различите развојне исходе. Полазећи од институционалног приступа, у раду се аргументује да институције делују као филтер који одређује начин на који се људски капитал користи и алоцира. У одсуству квалитетних институција, образовање не мора довести до повећања продуктивности, већ може резултирати неефикасном алокацијом ресурса. У раду се развија концептуални модел условљеног ефекта и заснива се на анализи постојећих емпиријских налаза. Резултати указују да образовање има значајан позитиван утицај на раст, пре свега у земљама са високим институционалним квалитетом, док је у слабијим институционалним оквирима тај ефекат ограничен. Посебан допринос рада се огледа у интеграцији теорије људског капитала и институционалне економије, као и у наглашавању условљености образовања као фактора раста.
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2. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. In: Handbook of Economic Growth, P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pp. 385-472, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
3. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail – The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. London: Profile Books.
4. Amsden, A. H. (1989). Asia’s Next Giant – South Korea and Late Industrialization. New York: Oxford University Press.
5. Autor, D. H. (2014). Skills, education, and the rise of earnings inequality among the “other 99 percent”. Science, 344(6186), 843-851.
6. Bartlett, W., Uvalić, M., Durazzi, N., Monastiriotis, V., & Sene, T. (2016). From University to Employment: Higher Education Provision and Labour Market Needs in the Western Balkans. Luxembourg: European Commission.
7. Bartlett, W., & Uvalić, M. (2018). Higher education and the graduate labour market in the Western Balkans. In: Western Balkan Economies in Transition: Recent Economic and Social Developments, Osbild, R. and Bartlett, W. (eds.), Springer, pp. 47-60.
8. Bartlett, W. (2013). Structural Unemployment in the Western Balkans: Challenges for Skills Anticipation and Matching Policies. European Planning Studies, 21(6), 890-908.
9. Becker, G. S. (1993). Human Capital – A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. Third Edition. Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press.
10. Brown, P., Lauder, H., & Cheung, S. Y. (2020). The Death of Human Capital? Its Failed Promise and How to Renew It in an Age of Disruption. New York: Oxford University Press.
11. Busemeyer, M. R., & Trampusch, C. (eds). (2012). The Political Economy of Collective Skill Formation. New York: Oxford University Press.
12. Cappelli, P. (2014). Skill Gaps, Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatches: Evidence for the US. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 20382, 1-67.
13. Collins, R. (2019). The Credential Society – An Historical Sociology of Education and Stratification. New York: Columbia University Press.
14. Docquier, F., & Rapoport, H. (2011). Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development. Discussion Paper Series, Discussion Paper No. 5590, The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn, pp. 1-62.
15. European Commission. (2024). European Innovation Scoreboard 2024: Serbia Country Profile.
16. European Training Foundation (ETF). (2022). “Use It or lose It” – How do migration, human capital and labour market interact in the Western Balkans? Report drafted by Isilda Mara and Michael Landesmann for the European Training Foundation, under the supervision of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw).
17. Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS). (2024). Labour Migration in the Western Balkans – Consequences for the Region’s Democratic Life. Policy Brief.
18. Grzymala-Busse, A. (2007). Rebuilding Leviathan – Party Competition and State Exploitation in Post-Communist Democracies. New York: Cambridge University Press.
19. Hall, P. A., & Soskice, D. (eds). (2001). Varieties of Capitalism – The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage. New York: Oxford University Press.
20. Hall, R. E., & Jones, C. I. (1999). Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Ouptup Per Worker Than Others? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 83-116.
21. Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2021). Education and Economic Growth. In: The Economics of Education, Second Edition, S. Bradley & C. Green (Eds.), pp. 171–210. London: Academic Press.
22. Hellman, J. S., Jones, G., & Kaufmann, D. (2000). “Seize the State, Seize the Day” – State Capture, Corruption, and Influence in Transition. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2444., 1-50.
23. Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
24. McGuinness, S., Pouliakas, K., & Redmond, P. (2018). Skills Mismatch: Concepts, Measurement, and Policy Approaches. Journal of Economic Survey, 00(0), 1-31.
25. McGuinness, S. (2006). Overeducation in the Labour Market. Journal of Economic Surveys, 20(3), 387-418.
26. Meyer, J.-B., Kaplan, D., & Charum, J. (2001). Scientific Nomadism and the New Geopolitics of Knowledge. International Social Science Journal, 53, 309-321.
27. Murphy, K. M., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1991). The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 503-530.
28. North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
29. OECD (2022). Education at a Glance 2022: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.
30. OECD. (2023). Education at a Glance 2023. Paris: OECD Publishing.
31. OECD. (2025). Economic Convergence Scoreboard for the Western Balkans 2025. Paris: OECD Publishing.
32. OECD. (2025a). Education Attainment. OECD Education GPS. https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/education-attainment.html?utm (Accessed, 30.05.2026.)
33. Pritchett, L. (2001). Where Has All the Education Gone? The World Bank Economic Review, 15(3), 367-391.
34. Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131-165.
35. Rodrik, D. (2007). One Economics – Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
36. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. The Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), Part 2: The Problem of Development: A Conference of the Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Systems), S71-S102.
37. Schiff, M., & Docquier, F. (2016). Institutional impact of brain drain, human capital, and inequality: a political economic analysis. Latin American Journal of Economics, 53(1), 95-110.
38. Schultz, T. W. (1961). Investment in Human Capital. The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1-17.
39. Stančetić, V. (2020). Spoils System Is Not Dead: The Development and Effectiveness of the Merit System in Western Balkans. HKJU-CCPA, 20(3), 415-438.
40. Svejnar, J. (2002). Transition Economies: Performance and Challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1), 3-28.
41. World Bank (2026). Unlocking the Development Potential of Migration in the Western Balkans. https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/unlocking-the-development-potential-of-migration-in-the-western-balkans (Accessed, 30.05.2026.)
42. World Bank. (2023). Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI).
43. World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). (2024). Global Innovation Index 2024. Geneva: WIPO.
44. World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). (2025). Global Innovation Index 2025. Geneva: WIPO.
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2026/07/07
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