Heat-waves and mortality in Czech cities: a case study for the summers of 2015 and 2016
Abstract
The aim of this paper was to assess the impact of heat-waves on mortality in ten Czech cities, using data recorded during the summers of 2015 and 2016. Temperature-related mortality during heat-waves was investigated by comparing mortality figures on heat-wave days and those on other days by means of the Mann-Whitney U test. Results for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (CVD+R) mortality, as well as for mortality in the over-65 age group, show statistically significant differences (p <0.05) during heat-waves compared with other days in seven of ten cities investigated. The effect of heat-waves on mortality did not reach statistical significance in Olomouc, Plzeň and Liberec. The results suggest that further studies addressing spatial patterns of mortality during heat-waves in urban areas are required to assess the vulnerability of the urban populations in particular cities and types of neighbourhood.
References
Ballester, J., Rodó, X., & Giorgi, F. (2009). Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming. Clim. Dyn, 35, 1191–1205. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0641-5
Basu R. (2009). High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiological studies from 2001 to 2008. Environmental Health, 8(1), 40-52. doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-8-40
Bogdanović, D.C., Milošević, Z.G., Lazarević, K.K., Dolićanin, Z.C., Randelović, D.M., & Bogdanović, S.D. (2013). The impact of the July 2007 heat wave on daily mortality in Belgrade, Serbia. Central European Journal of Public Health, 21(3), 140-145.
Bobvos, J., Fazekas, B. & Paldy, A. (2015). Assessment of heat-related mortality in Budapest from 2000 to 2010 by different indicators. Idojaras, 119(2), 143-158.
Bobvos, J., Malnasi, T., Rudnai, T., Cserbik, D. & Paldy, A. (2017). The effect of climate change on heat-related excess mortality in Hungary at different area levels. Idojaras, 121(1), 43-62.
Carson, C., Hajat, S., Armstrong, B., & Wilkinson, P. (2006). Declining vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in London over the 20th century. American Journal of Epidemiology, 164(1), 77-84. doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwj147
Christidis, N., Jones, G. S., & Stott, P. A. (2015). Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave. Nature Climate Change, 5(1), 46-50. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2468
D'Amato, G., Pawankar, R., Vitale, C., Lanza, M., Molino, M., Stanziola, A., Sanduzzi, A., Vatrella, A., D'Amato, M. (2016). Climate Change and Air Pollution: Effects on Respiratory Allergy. Allergy Asthma Immunology Research, 8(5), 391-395. doi: 10.4168/aair.2016.8.5.391
D'Ippoliti, D., Michelozzi, P., Marino, C., de Donato, F., Menne, B., Katsouyanni, K., Kirchmayer, U., analitis, A., Medina-Ramon, M., Paldy, A., Atkinson, R., Kovats, S., Bisanti, L., Schneider, A., Lefranc, A., Inguez, C., & Perucci, C. (2010). The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project. Environmental Health. doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-9-37
De Perez, E.C., Van Alast, M., Bischiniotis, K., Mason, S., Nissan, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E., Zsoter, E., & Van den Hurk, B. (2018). Global predictibility of temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letter, 13, doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a.
Djurdjev, B., Arsenović D., & Savić, S. (2012). Temperature-Related Mortality in Belgrade in the Period 1888-2008. Acta Geographica Slovenica, 52(2). 385-395.
EEA (2017). Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016. An indicator-based report. Luxembourg.
Fouillet, A., Rey, G., Laurent, F., Pavillon, G., Bellec, S., Guihenneuc-Jouyhaux, C., Clavel, J.,Jougla, E., & Hemon, D. (2006). Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France. Internacional archives of occupational and environmental health, 80 (1), 16-24. DOI 10.1007/s00420-006-0089-4
Forzieri, G., Cescatti, A., Batista, F., & Feyen, L. (2017). Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study. Lancet Planet Health. DOI:10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30082-7
Graczyk, D., Kundzewicz, W.Z., Chorynski, A., Forland, J.E. Pinskwar, I. & Szwed, M. (2018). Heat-related mortality durng hot summers in Polish cities. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2554-x
Grize ,I., Huss, A., Thommen, O., Schindler, C., Braun-Fabrlander, C. (2005). Heat wave 2003 and mortality in Switzerland. Swiss Med. Wkly, 135, 200-205. DOI: 2005/13/smw-11009
Huang, C.; Barnett, A.G.; Wang, X.; Vaneckova, P.; Fitzgerald, G.; Tong, S. (2011). Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: A systematic review. Environ. Health Perspect, 119, 1681–1690. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1103456
Huth, R., Kysely, J., Pokorna, L. (2000): A GCM simulation of heat waves, dry spells, and their relationship to circulation. Climatic Change, 46, 29-60. doi.org/10.1023/A:1005633925903
Hutter, H.P., Moshammer, H., Wallner, P., Leitner, B., Kundi, M. (2007): Heatwaves in Vienna: effects on mortality. Wiener Klinische Wochenschrift, 119(7-8), 223-227. doi.org/10.1007/s00508-006-0742-7
IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., et al, Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA, 2014; pp. 1–32.
Kovats S. & Hajat S. (2008). Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review. Annual Review of Public Health, 29, 41-55. Doi.org/10.1146/annurev.pubhealth.29.020907.090843
Kopp, J., Frajer, J., & Pavelková, R. (2015). Driving forces of the development of suburban landscape – A case study of the Sulkov site west of Pilsen. Quaestiones Geographicae, 34(3), 51-64. doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2015-0028
Kyselý, J. (2002). Temporal fluctuations in heat waves at Prague-Klementinum, the Czech Republic, from 1901-1997, and their relationship to atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology, 22, 33-50. DOI: 10.1002/joc.720
Kyselý, J. (2003). Časová proměnlivost horkých vln v ČR a extrémní horká vlna z roku 1994. Meteorologické zprávy, 56, 13-19.
Kysely J. & Huth R. (2004). Heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic examined through synoptic and 'traditional' approaches. Climate research, 25. 265-274. DOI: 10.3354/cr025265
Kysely, J., Pokorna L., Kyncl, J. & Kriz, B. (2009). Excess cardiovascular mortality associated with cold spells in the Czech Republic. BMC Public Health. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-9-19
Le Tertre, A., Lefranc, A., Eilstein, D., Declercq, C., Medina, S., Blanchard M.,.Ledrans, M. (2006). Impact of 2003 heat wave on all-cause mortality in 9 French cities. Epidemiology, 17, 75–79. DOI: 10.1097/01.ede.0000187650.36636.1f
Li, T.; Ban, J.; Horton, R.M.; Bader, D.A.; Huang, G.; Sun, Q.; Kinney, P.L. (2015). Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China. Sci. Rep., 5, 4–11. DOi: 10.1038/srep11441
Lhotka, O., Kyselý, J., & Farda, A. (2018). Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties. Theoretical and applied climatology, 131(3-4), 1043-1054. DOI 10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3
Michelozzi, P., De Donato, F., Bisanti, L., Russo, A., Cadum, E., DeMaria, M., D Ovidio, M., Costa, G., & Perucci, CA. (2005). The impact of the summer 2003 heat wave on mortality in four Italian cities. Eurosurveillance, 10(7-9), 161-164.
Nayak, S.G., Shrestha, S., Kinney, P.L., Ross Z., Sheridan S.C., Plantea C.I., Hsu W.H., Muscatello N., & Hwang S.A. (2018). Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State. Public Health, 161, 127-137. doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2017.09.006
Paci, D. (2014). Human Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe. Report for the PESETA II project. JRC. European Commission, Luxembourg.
Pascal, M., Laaidi, K., Ledrans, M., Baffert, E., Caserio-Schonemann, C., Le Tertre, A., Manach J., Medina, S., Rudant, J., & Empereur-Bissonnet, P. (2006). France’s heat health watch warning system. International Journal of Biometeorology, 50, 144-153. DOI 10.1007/s00484-005-0003-x
Robine, JM., Cheung, SL., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, JP., & Herrmann, FR. (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C R Biol 331, 171–178. doi:10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001
Robinson, PJ. (2001). On the definition of a heat wave. J Applied Meteorology 40(4), 762–775. doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040%3C0762:OTDOAH%3E2.0.CO;2
Rožnovský, J., Litschmann, T., Středová, H., Středa, T., Salaš, P., & Horká, M. (2017). Microclimate Evaluation of the Hradec Králové City using HUMIDEX. Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 47(3), 231-246. DOI: 10.1515/congeo-2017-0012
Sheridan, SC., Kalkstein, AJ., & Kalkstein LS. (2009). Trends in heat- related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004. Nat Hazards 50(1), 145–160. DOI:10.1007/s11069-008-9327-2
Středová, H., Středa, T., & Litschmann, T. (2015). Smart tools of urban climate evaluation for smart spatial planning. Moravian geographical reports, 23(3), 47-57. doi.org/10.1515/mgr-2015-0017
Tolasz, R., Míková, T., Valeriánová, A., & Voženílek, V. (2007). Atlas podnebí Česka. Prague: ČHMÚ, UPOL.
Urban, A., Burkart, K., Kysely, J., Schuster, C., Plavcova, E., Hanzlikova, H., Štepanek, P., & Lakes T. (2016). Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. doi:10.3390/ijerph13030284
Urban, A., & Kysley, J. (2014). Comparison of UTCI with other thermal indices in the assessment of heat and cold effects on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. doi:10.3390/ijerph110100952
Urban, A, Hondula, D. M., Hanzlíková, H., Kyselý, J., (2019). The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015 - a comparison of selected thermal indices. International Journal of Biometeorology, 63(4), 535-548. doi: 10.1007/s00484-019-01684-3
Vyberčki, D., Švec, M., Faško, P., Savinova, H., Trizna, M., & Mičietova E. (2015). The effects of the 1996-2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia. Moravian Geographical Reports, 23(3), 58-70. doi.org/10.1515/mgr-2015-0018
Vyberčki, D., Labudova, L., Eštokova, M., Faško, P., & Trizna M. (2018). Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia. Theoretical Applied Climatology, 133, 925-936. DOI 10.1007/s00704-017-2224-4
Vysoudil, M., Lehnert, M., & Kladivo, P. (2016). Heat stress in the urban and suburban landscape and its spatial differentiation through the example of a medium-sized city. Dela, 46, 163-182.
Vandentorren, S., Suzan F., Medina, S., Pascal M., Maulpoix, A., Choen, JK., & Ledrans, M. (2004). Mortality in 13 French Cities during the August 2003 Heat Wave. American Journal of Public Health, 94(9), 1518-1520.
WMO & WHO (2015). Heatwaves and Health: Guidance on Warning-System Development. Geneva.
Internet 1: CHMI XX: http://portal.chmi.cz/historicka-data/pocasi/uzemni-teploty
Internet2: CHMI: portal.chmi.cz/files/portal/docs/meteo/om/weather_links/Pocasi/Klimat_stanice.xls