Using Correlation Analysis to Examine the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemics on Various Socioeconomic Aspects: Case study of Indonesia
Abstract
This paper diagnoses the determination of Covid-19 on economic and social aspects in Indonesia. Panel data collected from 34 provinces in Indonesia for the 2020-2023 period supports the quantitative method. Three analyzes (Spearman, Kendall, and Pearson) were used to measuring the relationship and its partial effect. Research findings indicate that Covid-19 cases have a negative impact on labor productivity, migration, domestic violence, and sexual harassment. From other results, per capita spending, well-being, unemployment, and poverty actually increased when there was a surge in Covid-19. For the Spearman rho correlation, with a degree of 1 percent (p < 0.01), there is a significant effect between capita spending on well-being, per capita spending and well-being on migration, and poverty on labor productivity. Tested by Kendall’s tau and Pearson, the Covid-19 tragedy positively affected per capita spending, well-being, unemployment, poverty, and mortality, but labor productivity, migration, domestic violence, and sexual harassment were negatively affected by Covid-19. The partial probability level (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01) reveals a significant effect of per capita spending on well-being, migration on per capita spending and well-being, and poverty on labor productivity. Although per capita spending has a significant impact on well-being (5 percent confidence level), there is a slight difference from the Pearson test, where with a tolerance limit of 1 percent, poverty affects sexual harassment significantly. Covid-19 has taught many things, so that humanity does not disappear with conditions that seek peace. Policy makers need to schedule a more inclusive national and regional resilience system.
References
Aburto, J. M., Schöley, J., Kashnitsky, I., … Kashyap, R. (2022). Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: A population-level study of 29 countries. International Journal of Epidemiology, 51(1), 63–74, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab207
Aeni, N. (2021). Pandemi COVID-19: Dampak kesehatan, ekonomi, & sosial [COVID-19 pandemic: Health, economic & social impact]. Jurnal Litbang: Media Informasi Penelitian, Pengembangan dan IPTEK, 17(1), 17-34. https://doi.org/10.33658/jl.v17i1.249
Acharya, A., Wolfson, C., Matta, S., Cardona, C., Lamba, S., & Bishai, D. (2021). The role of public health expenditures in COVID-19 control: Evidence from local governments in England. SSM - Population Health, 15, 100861. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100861
Ahmad, M., Khan, Y. A., Jiang, C., Kazmi, S., & Abbas, S. Z. (2021). The impact of COVID‐19 on unemployment rate: An intelligent based unemployment rate prediction in selected countries of Europe. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 36(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2434
Ahumada, H., Cavallo, E. A., Espina-Mairal, S., & Navajas, F. (2021). Sectoral productivity growth, COVID-19 shocks, and infrastructure. Washington, D.C: Inter-American Development Bank.
Al Wahaibi, A., Al-Maani, A., Alyaquobi, F., Al Harthy, K., Al-Jardani, A., Al Rawahi, B., & Al-Abri, S. (2021). Effects of COVID-19 on mortality: A 5-year population-based study in Oman. International Society for Infectious Diseases, 104, 102–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.12.054
Antipova, A. (2021). Analysis of the COVID-19 impacts on employment and unemployment across the multi-dimensional social disadvantaged areas. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 4(1), 100224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2021.100224
Aziz, M., Ilmi, Z., Hakim, Y. P., Qodri, M., & Darma, D. C. (2021). ‘Monte Carlo Simulation’ predicting on the movement of investments–During the Covid pandemic in Indonesia. Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 12(2), 262-274. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jdm.v12i2.31797
Balakrishnan, V. S. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on migrants and refugees. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21(8), 1076-1077. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00410-2
Barletta, G., Castigo, F., Egger, E-M., Keller, M., Salvucci, V., & Tarp, F. (2022). The impact of COVID-19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique. Journal of International Development. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3599
Bavel, J., Baicker, K., Boggio, P. S., Capraro, V., Cichocka, A., Cikara, M., Crockett, M. J., Crum, A. J., Douglas, K. M., Druckman, J. N., Drury, J., Dube, O., Ellemers, N., Finkel, E. J., Fowler, J. H., Gelfand, M., Han, S., Haslam, S. A., Jetten, J., Kitayama, S., … Willer, R. (2020). Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(5), 460–471. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0884-z
Bradbury-Jones, C., & Isham, L. (2020). The pandemic paradox: The consequences of COVID-19 on domestic violence. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 29(13-14), 2047–2049. https://doi.org/10.1111/jocn.15296
Bright, C. F., Burton, C., & Kosky, M. (2020). Considerations of the impacts of COVID-19 on domestic violence in the United States. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 2(1), 100069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2020.100069
Bojanowska, A., Kaczmarek, Ł. D., Koscielniak, M., & Urbańska, B. (2021). Changes in values and well-being amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. PloS One, 16(9), e0255491. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255491
BPS Statistics – Indonesia (2022). Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2022. Jakarta: Directorate of Statistical Dissemination.
Cascella, M., Rajnik, M., Aleem, A., Dulebohn, S. C., & Di Napoli, R. (2022). Features, evaluation, and treatment of Coronavirus (COVID-19). In StatPearls. StatPearls Publishing. Available at: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32150360/ <Accessed on October 30, 2022>.
Cascio, W. F., & Montealegre, R. (2016). How technology is changing work and organizations. Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior, 3(1), 349-375. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-orgpsych-041015-062352
Chan, E., Cheng, D., & Martin, J. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost in the United States. PloS One, 16(9), e0256835. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256835
Choi, I., Kim, J. H., Kim, N., Choi, E., Choi, J., Suk, H. W., & Na, J. (2021). How COVID-19 affected mental well-being: An 11- week trajectories of daily well-being of Koreans amidst COVID-19 by age, gender and region. PloS One, 16(4), e0250252. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250252
Chowdhury, M. B., & Chakraborty, M. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the migrant workers and remittances flow to Bangladesh. South Asian Survey, 28(1), 38–56. https://doi.org/10.1177/0971523121995365
Crocker, J., Canevello, A., & Brown, A. A. (2017). Social motivation: Costs and benefits of selfishness and otherishness. Annual Review of Psychology, 68, 299–325. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010416-044145
de Vries, K., Erumban, A., & van Ark, B. (2021). Productivity and the pandemic: Short-term disruptions and long-term implications: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on productivity dynamics by industry. International Economics and Economic Policy, 18(3), 541-570. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00515-4
Dewi, R., Kaswandani, N., Karyanti, M. R., Setyanto, D. B., Pudjiadi, A. H., Hendarto, A., Djer, M. M., Prayitno, A., Yuniar, I., Indawati, W., Prawira, Y., Handryastuti, S., Sjakti, H. A., Hidayati, E. L., Muktiarti, D., Soebadi, A., Puspaningtyas, N. W., Muhaimin, R., Rahmadhany, A., Octavius, G. S., … Putri, N. D. (2021). Mortality in children with positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test: Lessons learned from a tertiary referral hospital in Indonesia. International Society for Infectious Diseases, 107, 78–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.04.019
Dhawan, S. (2020). Online learning: A panacea in the time of COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Educational Technology Systems, 49(1), 5–22. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047239520934018
Espino-Díaz, L., Fernandez-Caminero, G., Hernandez-Lloret, C.-M., Gonzalez-Gonzalez, H., & Alvarez-Castillo, J.-L. (2020). Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on education professionals. Toward a paradigm shift: ICT and neuroeducation as a binomial of action. Sustainability, 12(14), 5646. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145646
Faudiana, N. M. (2021). The impact of Covid-19 pandemic on poverty in the socio-economic field. Journal of Islamic Economic Scholar, 2(2), 85-90. https://doi.org/10.14421/jies.2021.2.2.91-106
Finch, W. H., & Hernández Finch, M. E. (2020). Poverty and Covid-19: Rates of incidence and deaths in the United States during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic. Frontiers in Sociology, 5, 47. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2020.00047
Gautam, A., & Singh, V. (2020). Parametric versus non-parametric time series forecasting methods: A review. Journal of Engineering Science and Technology Review, 13(3), 165-171. https://doi.org/10.25103/jestr.133.18
Giuntella, O., Hyde, K., Saccardo, S., & Sadoff, S. (2021). Lifestyle and mental health disruptions during COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(9), e2016632118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016632118
Grunberg, L., Everard, J., & O'Toole, M. (1984). Productivity and safety in worker cooperatives and conventional firms. International Journal of Health Services: Planning, Administration, Evaluation, 14(3), 413–432. https://doi.org/10.2190/QCT5-V6P6-UF8Y-A3V3
Harapan, H., Itoh, N., Yufika, A., Winardi, W., Keam, S., Te, H., Megawati, D., Hayati, Z., Wagner, A. L., & Mudatsir, M. (2020). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A literature review. Journal of Infection and Public Health, 13(5), 667–673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2020.03.019
Hauke, J., & Kossowski, T. M. (2011). Comparison of values of Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients on the same sets of data. Quaestiones Geographicae, 30(2), 87-93. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10117-011-0021-1
Hsiang, S., Allen, D., Annan-Phan, S., Bell, K., Bolliger, I., Chong, T., Druckenmiller, H., Huang, L. Y., Hultgren, A., Krasovich, E., Lau, P., Lee, J., Rolf, E., Tseng, J., & Wu, T. (2020). The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature, 584(7820), 262–267. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8
Jatmiko, M. I., Syukron, M., & Mekarsari, Y. (2020). Covid-19, harassment and social media: A study of gender-based violence facilitated by technology during the pandemic. The Journal of Society and Media, 4(2), 319–347. https://doi.org/10.26740/jsm.v4n2.p319-347
Kane, D., Maher, N., & Eogan, M. (2021). Assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Sexual Assault Treatment Unit activity. BMJ Sexual & Reproductive Health, 47(4), 1-2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjsrh-2021-201143
Khan, J. R., Awan, N., Islam, M. M., & Muurlink, O. (2020). healthcare capacity, health expenditure, and civil society as predictors of COVID-19 case fatalities: A global analysis. Frontiers in Public Health, 8, 347. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00347
Kollamparambil, U., & Oyenubi, A. (2021). Behavioural response to the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa. PloS One, 16(4), e0250269. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250269
Kumar, V., Alshazly, H., Idris, S. A., & Bourouis, S. (2021). Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on society, environment, economy, and education. Sustainability, 13(24), 13642. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132413642
Kusumaningrum, S., Siagian, C., & Beazley, H. (2021). Children during the COVID-19 pandemic: Children and young people’s vulnerability and wellbeing in Indonesia. Children's Geographies. https://doi.org/10.1080/14733285.2021.1900544
León-Gómez, I., Mazagatos, C., Delgado-Sanz, C., Frías, L., Vega-Piris, L., Rojas-Benedicto, A., & Larrauri, A. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Spain: Monitoring excess mortality (MoMo) and the surveillance of confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Viruses, 13(12), 2423. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122423
Lestari, D., Hudayah, S., & Busari, A. (2022). Understanding the ‘shadow economy’ in SMEs – A malpractice from Indonesia, 2009-2020. Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen, 37(1), 77-95. http://dx.doi.org/10.24856/mem.v27i01.2558
Li, K., Foutz, N. Z., Cai, Y., Liang, Y., & Gao, S. (2021). Impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns and stimulus payments on low-income population's spending in the United States. PloS One, 16(9), e0256407. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256407
Lumayag, L., Del Rosario, T., & Sutton, F. S. (2020). Reflections on collective insecurity and virtual resistance in the times of COVID-19 in Malaysia. Migration Letters, 17(5), 719–731. https://doi.org/10.33182/ml.v17i5.1013
Malik, N., Suliswanto, M. S. W., & Rofik, M. (2021). The unemployment rate amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Propose the best practices policy to maintain labor market stability. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, 25(1), 48-61. https://doi.org/10.22146/jsp.56450
Marques de Miranda, D., da Silva Athanasio, B., Sena Oliveira, A. C., & Simoes-E-Silva, A. C. (2020). How is COVID-19 pandemic impacting mental health of children and adolescents?. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 51, 101845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101845
Megasari, N., Utsumi, T., Yamani, L. N., Juniastuti, Gunawan, E., Furukawa, K., Nishimura, M., Lusida, M. I., & Mori, Y. (2021). Seroepidemiological study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in East Java, Indonesia. PloS One, 16(5), e0251234. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251234
Ministry of Law and Human Rights – Republic of Indonesia. (2022). Kekerasan dalam rumah tangga dalam perspektif sosiologi [Domestic violence from a sociological perspective]. Available at: https://ditjenpp.kemenkumham.go.id/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=649:kekerasan-dalam-rumah-tangga-dalam-perspektif-sosiologi&catid=101&Itemid=181 <Accessed on January 20, 2022>.
Mittal, S., & Singh, T. (2020). Gender-based violence during COVID-19 pandemic: A mini-review. Frontiers in Global Women's Health, 1, 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgwh.2020.00004
Mustajab, D., Bauw, A., Rasyid, A., Irawan, A., Akbar, M. A., & Hamid, M. A. (2021). Working from home phenomenon as an effort to prevent COVID-19 attacks and its impacts on work productivity. The International Journal of Applied Business, 4(1), 13-21. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/tijab.V4.I1.2020.13-21
Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., Agha, M., & Agha, R. (2020). The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. International Journal of Surgery, 78, 185–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.04.018
Ohrnberger, J., Segal, A. B., Forchini, G., … Hauck, K. (2021). The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance. European Journal of Public Health, 31(5), 1009–1015. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckab138
Osterrieder, A., Cuman, G., Pan-Ngum, W., Cheah, P. K., Cheah, P. K., Peerawaranun, P., Silan, M., Orazem, M., Perkovic, K., Groselj, U., Schneiders, M. L., Poomchaichote, T., Waithira, N., Asarath, S. A., Naemiratch, B., Ruangkajorn, S., Skof, L., Kulpijit, N., Mackworth-Young, C., Ongkili, D., … Cheah, P. Y. (2021). Economic and social impacts of COVID-19 and public health measures: Results from an anonymous online survey in Thailand, Malaysia, the UK, Italy and Slovenia. BMJ Open, 11(7), e046863. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046863
Pahrudin, P., Chen, C-T., & Liu, L-W. (2021). A modified theory of planned behavioral: A case of tourist intention to visit a destination post pandemic Covid-19 in Indonesia. Heliyon, 7(1), e08230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08230
Paredes, M. R., Apaolaza, V., Fernandez-Robin, C., Hartmann, P., & Yañez-Martinez, D. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on subjective mental well-being: The interplay of perceived threat, future anxiety and resilience. Personality and Individual Differences, 170, 110455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2020.110455
Porter, C., Favara, M., Sánchez, A., & Scott, D. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on physical domestic violence: Evidence from a list randomization experiment. SSM - Population Health, 14, 100792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100792
Prasetyaningtyas, S. W., Heryanto, C., Nurfauzi, N. F., & Tanjung, S. B. (2021). The effect of work from home on employee productivity in banking industry. Journal of Applied Management, 19(3), 507-521. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ub.jam.2021.019.03.05
Prawoto, N., Purnomo, E. P., & Zahra, A. A. (2020). The impacts of Covid-19 pandemic on socio-economic mobility in Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 8(3), 57-71. https://doi.org/10.35808/ijeba/486
Purba, J. H., Fathiah, R., & Steven, S. (2021). The impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the tourism sector in Indonesia. Riset: Jurnal Aplikasi Ekonomi Akuntansi dan Bisnis, 3(1), 389-401. https://doi.org/10.37641/riset.v3i1.82
Puth, M-T., Neuhäuser, M., & Ruxton, G. D. (2015). Effective use of Spearman's and Kendall's correlation coefficients for association between two measured traits. Animal Behaviour, 102, 77-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2015.01.010
Rahmawati, R., Darma, D. C., ZA, S. Z., & Asnawati, A. (2021). Perluasan wawasan tentang ‘informasi toxic’ pada serangan pasca COVID-19 di Indonesia [Expanding insight into 'toxic information' on post-COVID-19 attacks in Indonesia]. Minda Baharu, 5(2), 183-195. https://doi.org/10.33373/jmb.v5i2.3480
Rajagukguk, E. (2021). Covid-19 increases unemployment. Available at: https://law.ui.ac.id/v3/covid-19-increases-unemployment-by-prof-erman-rajagukguk/ <Accessed on February 28, 2022>.
Ram, K., & Yadav, S. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on poverty estimates in India: A study across caste, class and religion. Contemporary Voice of Dalit. https://doi.org/10.1177/2455328X211051432
Ratnasari, S. L., Rahmawati, R., Ramadania, R., Darma, D. C., & Sutjahjo, G. (2021). Ethical work climate in motivation and moral awareness perspective: The dilemma by the COVID-19 crisis?. Journal Public Policy and Administration, 20(4), 398-409. http://dx.doi.org/10.13165/VPA-21-20-4-04
Roy, J., Hasid, Z., Lestari, D., Darma, D. C., & Kurniawan A, E. (2021). Covid-19 maneuver on socio-economic: Exploitation using correlation. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 9(2), 146-162. https://doi.org/10.21009/JPEB.009.2.6
Saladino, V., Algeri, D., & Auriemma, V. (2020). The psychological and social impact of Covid-19: New perspectives of well-being. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 577684. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.577684
Sanchez, G., & Achilli, L. (2020). Stranded: The impacts of COVID-19 on irregular migration and migrant smuggling. Policy Briefs, 2020/20. Migration Policy Centre, Washington, D.C. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/67069 <Accessed on January 17, 2022>.
Sevindik, I., Tosun, M. S., & Yilmaz, S. (2021). Local response to the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of Indonesia. Sustainability, 13(10), 5620. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13105620
Shang, Y., Li, H., & Zhang, R. (2021). Effects of pandemic outbreak on economies: Evidence from business history context. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 632043. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.632043
Shereen, M. A., Khan, S., Kazmi, A., Bashir, N., & Siddique, R. (2020). COVID-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses. Journal of Advanced Research, 24, 91–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2020.03.005
Shimizutani, S., & Yamada, E. (2021). Resilience against the pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on migration and household welfare in Tajikistan. PloS One, 16(9), e0257469. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257469
Sifat, R. I. (2020). Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domestic violence in Bangladesh. Asian Journal of Psychiatry, 53, 102393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajp.2020.102393
Singhal T. (2020). A Review of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). Indian Journal of Pediatrics, 87(4), 281–286. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12098-020-03263-6
Sirkeci, I., & Yucesahin, M. M. (2020). Coronavirus and migration: Analysis of human mobility and the spread of COVID-19. Migration Letters, 17(2), 379–398. https://doi.org/10.33182/ml.v17i2.935
Stuart H. (2016). Reducing the stigma of mental illness. Global Mental Health, 3, e17. https://doi.org/10.1017/gmh.2016.11
Suryahadi, A., Izzati, R. A., & Yumna, A. (2021). The impact of Covid-19 and social protection programs on poverty in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 57(3), 267-296. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2021.2005519
Task Force for Handling COVID-19 – Republic of Indonesia. (2022). Peta sebaran COVID-19 [COVID-19 distribution map]. [Online] Available at: https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran-covid19 <Accessed on March 18, 2022>.
The Databooks. (2022). Jumlah kasus pemerkosaan dan pencabulan (2017 - 2021) [Number of cases of rape and obscenity (2017 - 2021)]. [Online] Available at:https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2021/12/15/jumlah-kasus-pemerkosaan-dan-pencabulan-meningkat-31-dalam-lima-tahun-terakhir#:~:text=Jumlah%20kasus%20kriminal%20kesusilaan%20yang,pada%202020%20menjadi%206.872%20kasus. <Accessed on December 9, 2022>.
The Nature. (2022). Deltacron: The story of the variant that wasn’t. [Online] Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00149-9 <Accessed on March 5, 2022>.
Wang, J. (2012). On the relationship between Pearson correlation coefficient and Kendall’s Tau under bivariate homogeneous shock model. International Scholarly Research Network, 2012, 717839. https://doi.org/10.5402/2012/717839
Wijaya, M. Y. (2022). The estimation of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia. Kesmas: National Public Health Journal, 17(1), 25-31. http://dx.doi.org/10.21109/kesmas.v17i1.5413
Yaya, S., Otu, A., & Labonté, R. (2020). Globalisation in the time of COVID-19: Repositioning Africa to meet the immediate and remote challenges. Globalization and Health, 16, 51. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-020-00581-4
