ASSESSMENT OF MOVEMENT OF THE BELEX15 INDEX USING LINEAR REGRESSION AND NEURAL NETWORK

  • Marijana Petrović University in Novi Sad, Faculty of Economics in Subotica, Serbia

Abstract


The stock market remains a focus of attention for researchers. So far, various technical and statistical methods and models have been developed and used to show different results, but none with great success. In this paper the author used two approaches to estimate price movement in stock market: simple linear regression and backpropagation neural network.The aim of this paper is to estimate the value of the Belex15 stock exchange index and to analyze its movement using two aforementioned approaches.

References

Heaton, J., (2012). Introduction to the Math of Neural Networks. Heaton Research.

Heaton, J., (2015). Artficial Intelligence for Humans. Vol. 3: Deep Learning and Neural Networks. Heaton Research.

Roiger, R.J., Geatz, M.W. (2003). Data mining- a tutorial-based primer. Pearson.

Maimon, O., Rokach, L. (2005). Data mining and knowledge discovery handbook. Springer.

Olaniyi, S. A., Adewole, S., Kayode, S., Jimoh, R.G. (2011). Stock Trend Prediction Using Regression Analysis – A Data Mining Approach. ARPN Journal of Systems and Software, I (4), 651-656.

Adhikari, R., Agrawal, R.K. (2013). An Introductory Study on Time Series Modeling and Forecasting. ARPN Journal of Systems and Software, 154-157.

Pathak, A. (2014). Predictive time series analysis of stock prices using neural network classifier. International Journal of Computer Science & Engineering Technology (IJCSET), 5(3), 191-195.

Hajizadeh, E., Ardakani, H. D., Shahrabi, J. (2010). Application of data mining techniques in stock markets: A survey. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 2, 109-118.

Altay, E., Satman, M.H. (2005). Stock market forecasting: Artificial neural network and linear regression comparison in an emerging market. Journal of Financial Management and Analysis, 18-33.

Beogradskaberzaa.d.Retrieved April 12th, 2019,from: https://www.belex.rs/trgovanje/indeksi/belex15/istorijski

Kumar, GN., C. (2018) Machine Learning Types and Algorithms. Retrieved May 7th, 2019,from: https://towardsdatascience.com/machine-learning-types-and-algorithms-d8b79545a6ec

Statistic how to. F Statistic / F Value: Simple Definition and Interpretation. Retrieved June 10th,2019,from: https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-statistics/f-statistic-value-test/

Ekonomskifakultet Subotica. Regresionaikorelacionaanaliza. Retrieved June 10th, 2019. from: http://www.ef.uns.ac.rs/Download/statistika/2017-01-20-regresiona-i-korelaciona-analiza.pdf

Cheuseva, S. (2018). How to use LINEST function in Excel – formula examples. Retrieved June 10th2019. from: https://www.ablebits.com/office-addins-blog/2018/07/25/excel-linest-function-formula-examples/

Published
2019/10/08
Section
Original Scientific Paper