The Rise of China as a Hegemonic Power: The Case for a Partial Peaceful Rise

  • Mohamed Bin Huwaidin Department of Government and Society, United Arab Emirates University
  • Osman Antwi-Boateng Department of Government and Society, United Arab Emirates University
Keywords: power transition theory, China's rise, partial peaceful rise, Sino-US relations, international security

Abstract


China’s rise is a significant concern for international security. It is essential to understand the trajectory of China’s rise in order to determine world safety and prosperity measures in a period of great uncertainty. This study provides an overview of the two main possible security consequences of China’s rise, that is, a peaceful rise and a warlike rise, by surveying arguments found in the literature regarding both aspects. The research extends beyond the often-made binary argument of “peaceful rise versus non-peaceful rise” since aspects of both arguments can explain the country’s rise. This research offers a nuanced assessment of China’s rise by positing a partial peaceful rise explanation whereby China seeks a non-confrontational way of asserting itself globally vis-a-vis the United States, while at the same time, modernizing and expanding its military capabilities in preparation for any eventualities.

 

References

Albert, Eleanor. 2018. “China’s Big Bet on Soft Power.” Council on Foreign Relations, 11. February 9. Accessed January 10, 2021. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-big-bet-soft-power.

Allison, Graham. 2015. “The Thucydides trap: Are the U.S. and China headed for war?” The Atlantic. September 24. Accessed December 31, 2020. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/.

Bernstein, Richard, and Ross H. Munro. 1998. The Coming Conflict with China. New York: Vintage Books.

Bijian, Zheng. 2005. “China’s ‘peaceful rise’ to great-power status.” Foreign Affairs 84 (5): 18–24.

Bingguo, Dai. 2010. “Stick to the path of peaceful development”. China Daily. December 13. Accessed May 20, 2020. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2010-12/13/content_11690133.htm.

Brettell, Karen and Karen Pierog. 2021. “RPT-China Unlikely to Wield U.S. Bond Weapon as Tensions Stay High. Reuters. April 1. Accessed April 7, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-china/china-unlikely-to-wield-u-s-bond-weapon-as-tensions-stay-high-idUSL1N2LT255?edition-redirect=in.

Buzan, Barry, and Michael Cox. 2013. “China and the US: Comparable cases of ‘peaceful rise’?” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 6 (2): 109–132.

Chan, Minnie. 2016. “Beijing ready to impose air defence identification zone in South China Sea pending US moves.” South China Morning Post. June 1. Accessed May 20, 2021. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1960954/beijing-ready-impose-air-defence-identification-zone-south-china-sea.

Dellios, Rosita, and James Ferguson. 2013. China’s Quest for Global Order from Peaceful Rise to Harmonious World. Lanham: Lexington Books.

Fearon, James. 1995. “Rationalist explanations for war.”I nternational Organization 49 (3): 379–414.

Friedberg, Aaron L. 2011. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.

Gartzke, Erik. 2007. “The capitalist peace.” American Journal of Political Science 51 (1): 166–191.

Garver, John W. 2016. “China and Iran: Expanding cooperation under conditions of US domination.” In Toward Well-Oiled Relations? China’s Presence in the Middle East following the Arab Spring, edited by Niv Horesh, 180–205. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

Gill, Bates. 2007. Rising Star: China’s New Security Diplomacy. Washington: Brooking Institution Press.

Glaser, Charles. 2011. “Will China’s Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism.” Foreign Affairs, March/April. Accessed April 10, 2021. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2011-03-01/will-chinas-rise-lead-war.

Guo, Sujian. 2006. China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’ in the 21st Century. New York: Routledge.

Hachigian, Nina. 2014. Debating China: The U.S.-China Relationship in Ten Conversations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hanemann, Thilo, Daniel H. Rosen, and Cassie Gao. 2017. “Two-way street: 2017 update, US-China direct investment trend.” National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and Rhodium Group. May 9. Accessed July 7, 2020. http://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/RHG_Two-Way-Street_2017-Update_Final_9May2017.pdf.

Hu, Angang, Yilong Yan, and Xiao Tang. 2018. Xi Jinping’s New Development Philosophy. Singapore: Springer.

Ikenberry, John G. (2014a). “The Rise of China and the Future of Liberal World Order.” The C Douglas Dillion Lecture, Chatham House. May 7. Accessed March 10, 2021. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/field/field_document/20140507RiseofChina.pdf.

Ikenberry, John G. 2014b. “The Illusion of Geopolitics: The Enduring Power of the Liberal Order.” Foreign Affairs 93 (3): 80–90.

Jerden, Bjorn, and Linus Hagstrom. 2012. “Rethinking Japan’s China Policy: Japan as an Accommodator in the Rise of China, 1978–2011.” Journal of East Asian Studies 12 (2): 215–250.

Jervis, Robert. 1978. “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma. World Politics 30 (2): 167–214.

Jonson, Christopher. 2014. Decoding China’s Emerging ‘Great Power’ Strategy in Asia. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.

Kagan, Donald. 2005. The Peloponnesian War: Athens and Sparta in Savage Conflict 431-404 BC. London: Harper Perennial.

Kang, David. 2015. “China’s Power in the Regional Context (1): Northeast Asia.” In Assessing China’s Power, edited by Jae Ho Chung, 185-206. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

Keohane, Robert O., and Joseph Nye. 2001. Power and Interdependence. Longman, Classics in Political Science.

Kim, Woosang, and Scott Gates. 2015. “Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China.” International Area Studies Review 18 (3): 219-226.

Kissinger, Henry. 2011. On China. New York: The Penguin Press.

Kristof, Nicholas D., and Sheryl WuDunn. 1995. China Wakes: The Struggle for the Soul of a Rising Power. New York: Vintage Books.

Lo, Kinling. 2019. “China doesn’t want to supplant the US, but it will keep growing, Beijing says.” South China Morning Post. September 27. Accessed February 7, 2021. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3030717/china-doesnt-want-supplant-us-it-will-keep-growing-beijing.

McDonald, Joe, and Paul Wisemen. 2021. “Under Biden, China faces renewed trade Pressure.” AP. January 26. Accessed May 26, 2021. https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-technology-beijing-global-trade-22f525e41676d4e6abf96f3ca9255d15.

Mearsheimer, John. 2014. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.

Mosher, Steven, W. 2000. Hegemon: China’s Plan to Dominate Asia and the World. San Francisco: Encounter Books.

Nye, Joseph. 2008. “Public diplomacy and soft power.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 616 (1): 94–109.

O’Hanlon, Michael. 2000. “Why China cannot conquer Taiwan.” International Security 25 (2): 51–86.

Organski, A. F.K. (1968). World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.

Organski, A. F. K., and Jacek Kugler. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Shambaugh, David. 2021. Where Great Powers Meet, America and China in Southeast Asia. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Shambaugh, David. 2013. China Goes Global, The Partial Power. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Shengli, Ling, and Lv Huiyi. 2018. “Why are China and the U.S. Not Destined to Fall into the “Thucydides’ Trap”?” China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies 4 (4): 495–514.

Snyder, Glenn. 1984. “The security dilemma in alliance politics.” World Politics 36 (4): 466–67.

Statista. 2021. “The Total Value of U.S. Trade in Goods (Export and Import) with China from 2010 to 2020.” February 9. Accessed April 17, 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/277679/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-china-ince-2006/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20total%20value,billion%20U.S.%20dollar%20import%20value.

Steinfeld, Edward. 2010. Playing Our Game: Why China’s Rise Doesn’t Threaten the West. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Swaine, Michael, Mike Mochizuki, Michael Brown, Paul Giarra, Douglas Paal, Rachel Odell, Raymond Lu, Oliver Palmer, and Xu Ren. 2013. “China’s military & the U.S.-Japan alliance in 2030: A strategic net assessment.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Accessed February 17, 2021. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/net_assessment_full.pdf.

Tang, Siew Mun et al. 2020. The State of Southeast Asia: 2020 Survey Report. Singapore: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Thucydides. 1972. History of the Peloponnesian War. New York: Penguin Books.

Thucydides. n.d. The History of the Peloponnesian War: The First Book. Translated by R. Crawley. Accessed December 10, 2020. http://classics.mit.edu/Thucydides/pelopwar.1.first.html.

Weede, Erich. 2010. “The Capitalist Peace and the Rise of China: Establishing Global Harmony by Economic Interdependence.” International Interactions 36 (2): 206–2013.

Westcott, Ben, and Steven Jiang. 2020. “China is embracing a new brand of foreign policy. Here's what wolf warrior diplomacy means.” CNN. May 29. Accessed February 17, 2021. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/28/asia/china-wolf-warrior-diplomacy-intl-hnk/index.html.

Whiting, Allen S. 1989. China Eyes Japan. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Workman, Daniel. 2017. “China’s Top Trading Partners.” World’s Top Exports. Accessed March 25, 2021. http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/.

World Bank. 2018. “Belt and Road Initiative." March 29. Accessed March 25, 2021. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative.

Yang, Shih-Yueh. 2013. “Power transition, balance of power, and the rise of China: A theoretical reflection about rising great power.” The China Review 13 (2): 35–66.

Zhihui, Li. 2015. “China voice: Ten reasons China, U.S. can avoid Thucydides Trap.” Xinhuanet. September 27. Accessed January 7, 2021. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-09/27/c_134664509.htm.

Zhou, Cissy. 2020. “We’re not Wolf Warriors, we’re only standing up for China, says senior official.” South China Morning Post. December 5. Accessed May 10, 2021. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112733/were-not-wolf-warriors-were-only-standing-china-says-senior.

Published
2023/04/06
Section
Articles