National interest

CONSEQUENCES OF THE ISRAELI WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST SINCE 2023

Slobodan Jankovic — Sat, 22 Nov 2025 14:21:16 +0100

In this paper, the causes and, in particular, the consequences of the war efforts undertaken by the Jewish country in the period of approximately two years (October 2023-October 2025) in the Middle East are analyzed. The author highlighted the shortcomings of various theoretical frameworks in the IR discipline. In contrast, the Matteo Marconi variation of the Italian neoclassical geopolitical school, which emphasizes culture, history, and will, is crucial in influencing the aims of foreign policy. Therefore, that line of thought is suitable as an explanatory tool for the described behavior of a physically-geographically small state. The first two chapters are dedicated to explaining the history and religion as factors that shape Israeli foreign policy. In the following chapters, the history and geopolitical reasoning of the episodes of the unique war effort, aimed against Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas, and generally against Palestinians and Iran, are presented.

The author concludes that consequences are multifaceted, referring to the distribution of power, modes of its dissemination, and theoretically highlighting the weakness of the concept of soft power in a changing world order. Israel managed to secure the reward for the series of war crimes, including the genocide, with Western support. This reveals the comprehensive breakdown of international law and the mechanisms of the post-Second World War order.

Key words: Israel, Palestine, World Order, Iran, Middle East, Donald Trump, Netanyahu

TWELVE-DAY WAR FROM POINT OF VIEW OF STRATEGY

Nebojša Vukovic — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 18:46:23 +0100

The short-lived war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 was the culmination of decades of conflict between two states in the Middle East region. This war is multiple inspirable for research from different sciences or disciplines (military strategy, geopolitics, geostrategy, polemology, study of international relations, etc.) and can be analysed and viewed from a variety of conceptual and methodological angles. A deeper (scientific) understanding of this war requires not only its description and listing of the relevant events in it, but also its interpretation and explanation on the basis of already established and verified scientific paradigms. In this work, the Israeli-Iranian war will be investigated with the help of a significant paradigm from a (military) strategy. It is about the concept of two types of strategy -- sequential and cumulative -- by US Admiral Joseph Wylie. The results that have come about are as follows -- the Israeli armed forces and the state of Israel itself have resorted to a sequential, and Iran and its armed forces to a cumulative strategy. Israel has gradually neutralized or degraded Iran's partners and allies in order to have a "free hand" for the ultimate operation – the attack on Iran. On the other hand, Iran resorted to missile attacks in response to Israeli aggression whose effects should have had a cumulative effect on Tel Aviv's position

Offensive realism and minilateralism in the balkans

Aleksandar Đekić — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 18:51:17 +0100

This paper analyzes the emergence of new minilateral defense arrangements in the Balkans, focusing on the Tirana and Zagreb Declarations of 2025. Although these initiatives are formally aligned with NATO and EU frameworks and rhetoric, they essentially represent strategic balancing efforts among small states reacting to the perceived shift in regional power and the growing influence of Serbia and its external partners. The study applies the theoretical framework of offensive realism, contrasting it with liberal institutionalism, to explain why states seek narrower, faster, and more controllable security formats even within existing alliances.

The analysis demonstrates that minilateralism functions as an operational mechanism within broader institutional structures rather than an alternative to them. In an environment of persistent uncertainty, states turn to selective cooperation formats that enable rapid decision-making, interoperability, and industrial coordination when multilateral institutions appear too slow or ambiguous. The Tirana Declaration, linking Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo, and the Zagreb Declaration, connecting Croatia and Slovenia, reveal a layered response aimed at consolidating capabilities and signaling cohesion under the guise of Euro-Atlantic solidarity. Parallel to this, Serbia’s asymmetric counterbalancing strategy, anchored in defense-industrial cooperation with Hungary, political and symbolic coordination with Russia, and technological and training partnerships with China, illustrates how a non-aligned actor adapts to regional consolidation efforts without directly opposing major institutions.

The findings confirm three major propositions. First, offensive realism remains a reliable explanatory framework for state behavior even within heavily institutionalized environments. Second, institutions primarily shape rhetoric and procedural legitimacy but not the actual distribution of power. Third, minilateralism has become an intermediate channel that shortens the time between threat perception and coordinated response. The research concludes that institutions can organize discourse, but power continues to organize reality, and that the persistence of uncertainty inevitably drives states toward new, flexible, and interest-driven security configurations.

DEMOCRATIC PEACE IN RELATION TO REGIONAL PEACE AND STABILITY IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

Uroš Popadić — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 19:15:11 +0100

The paper aims to apply the theory of democratic peace to the context of regional peace and security in the Western Balkans, using both its internal external components. Due to the importance of regional democratisation for regional positive peace, as the theory would suggest, the recent democratic backsliding could negatively affect it. We provide a testing and adaptation of the famous theory and its recent adaptations and emerging corollaries, and produce a comparative regional empirical analysis to do so. After an overview of the democratic situation, and an analysis of regional relations, in the context of regional EU accession and the nominal role of the EU as a regional stabiliser or democratiser, we examine the implications for the region based on the theoretical insight and expectations. We found that there is a link between internal democratic practice and regional stability, as internal democratic issues led to deterioration of bilateral and multilateral cooperation, as well as to a slowing down of the EU accession process which is meant to contribute to peace in the region. We put forward the proposal that regional peace depends in many ways upon the continuation of democratisation in each regional state, which would contribute to an overall regional pacification even without direct external effort to that end. The results indicate that democratic backsliding would have a negative effect on regional peace and security, and vice versa, putting a normative emphasis on the continuation of regional democratisation.

ENERGY COOPERATION IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN AS AN INSTRUMENT OF POWER TRANSFORMATION IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS: THE CASE OF AZERBAIJAN AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Veljko Mijušković, Petar Ranković — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 18:47:47 +0100

The paper is structured into six sections. The first section examines the geopolitical significance of energy security and the security of supply. Energy security has become an increasingly prominent factor in international politics, while diversification of supply is presented as a pathway to building greater resilience against external risks. The second section discusses how structural realism explains the underlying interests driving energy cooperation between the European Union and Azerbaijan, shaping the transformation of the security and energy architecture of Europe and the South Caucasus. The third section analyzes Azerbaijan’s geopolitical position and its historical role in Eurasian energy flows. The fourth section explores Europe’s decades-long dependence on Russian gas. The fifth section focuses on the development of bilateral cooperation between the European Union and Azerbaijan. Finally, the sixth section highlights the limitations and risks associated with energy cooperation between the two sides.

POLITICAL COMMUNICATION AND THE POWER OF SOCIAL NETWORKS IN NATIONAL CRISES

Ana Jevtović — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 18:54:45 +0100

This research focuses on social networks and their role as activists during political crises within nation-states. Demonstrations and other forms of civil protest become more expressive with increased media coverage, where specific political demands are often hidden under the guise of non-violence. The author identifies five characteristic phases of message creation that, through various digital formats and modalities, contribute to increased visibility in the traditional public sphere. This amplifies the crisis's intensity, increasing the risk of escalation and internationalization. The nation-state and social networks are often incompatible during times of crisis, resulting in divided public opinion over possible solutions and their consequences. In a networked society, this leads to increased production of fear and moral panic, along with the spread of fake news, disinformation, and rumors. These dynamics can result in numerous incidents and further mobilization of youth, who represent a particularly vulnerable group. The new audience is increasingly overlapping, polarizing, shifting, and restructuring in accordance with changed social contexts and a digital environment that enables actor anonymity. Media technology, through digitalization and artificial intelligence, is becoming a conditio sine qua non for managing specific spaces and political relationships within a community, which also means that the course of action during crises is changing.

THE CULTURE OF SECRECY IN THE DIGITAL AGE: BETWEEN NECESSITY, ABUSE, AND CYBERSECURITY

Goran Matić — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0100

The culture of secrecy represents an institutionalized model of information management that has evolved from ancient civilizations to modern digital societies. Historically, secrecy was justified by security and political interests, but it often transformed into a mechanism for concentrating power and restricting democratic oversight (Greenwald, No Place to Hide, 2014, 45–60). In the Roman Empire, information was safeguarded in formal archives (tabularia), while the Qin and Han dynasties in China developed complex bureaucratic systems for managing confidential data. Modern secrecy mechanisms, such as the D-Notice system in the United Kingdom, continue to institutionalize information control. The digital transformation has expanded the concept of secrecy through algorithms and mass surveillance, enabling new methods of concealing and manipulating data. Examples such as the misuse of Pegasus spyware or the mass classification of public contracts illustrate how technology not only facilitates information management but also enables more subtle forms of secrecy. At the same time, whistleblowers like Edward Snowden highlight the vulnerabilities of digital privacy, while legal mechanisms such as the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) in the U.S. and initiatives for document declassification promote transparency.

This paper analyzes the historical development of the culture of secrecy, its transformation in the digital age, and contemporary challenges in balancing legitimate security protection with the need for transparency. Special attention is given to public control mechanisms, including freedom of information, declassification processes, and the role of whistleblowers in preserving transparency as a fundamental element of democratic society.

ON THE SAVA ROAD

Ljubiša Despotović — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 19:01:19 +0100

Between the Reich and Republic. The History of the German Postwar Right

Dušan Dostanić — Thu, 20 Nov 2025 19:02:56 +0100