БЕЗБЕДНОСНА ДИЛЕМА И СПОЉНА ПОЛИТИКА ЗЕМАЉА ИСТОЧНЕ ЕВРОПЕ У КОНТЕКСТУ УКРАЈИНСКЕ КРИЗЕ
Sažetak
Абстракт: Стабилност курса унутрашње и спољне политике директно зависи од унутрашње, регионалне, па и глобалне безбедности. Успостављање јасног спољно-политичког правца захтева дугорочна/стратешка партнерства, извесне и позитивне безбедносно-политичке прилике у окружењу, што је посебно отежано у динамичном геополитичком окружењу какав је простор Источне Европе. Честа промена спољно-политичких праваца држава Источне Европе резултат је сукоба међусобно искључивих геостратешких интереса и претензија у различитим историјско-политичким контекстима, што је често водило кризним, па и конфликтним мометима. Неповољне безбедносне прилике на простору Источке Европе које су условљене актуелним сукобом у Украјини подстакли су безбедносну дилему, чији су ефекти убрзо забележени у свим друштвеним обастима. Имајући то у виду, предмет овог рада је истраживање и критичка анализа безбедносне дилеме као фактора спољно-политичког деловањау контексту украјинског конфликта која обухвата, како дугорочне/стратешке, тако и краткорочне правце, те регионалне и глобалне политичке циљеве земаља Источне Европе. Из предмета анализе изузете су земље Источне Европе које су непосредне учеснице Украјинског сукоба: Руска Федерација и Украјина, а фокус ће бити на процени спољно-политичких праваца деловања земаља поменуте регије.
Reference
About Hungary 2024. FM: Reality and ideology are "far apart" in politics today. https://abouthungary.hu/news- in-brief/fm-reality-and-ideology-are-far-apart-in-politics-today. 4. 3. 2024,
Ahmatović 2024: Šejla Ahmatović. Slovak PM says EU, NATO members weighing sending troops to Ukraine. https://www.politico.eu/article/slovak-pm-fico-says-eu-and-nato-states-consider-sending-troops-to- ukraine/. 4. 3. 2024,
Aligica 2024: Paul Dragos Aligica. Frictions aside, Romania remains steady in support of Ukraine. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/romana-ukraine-relations/. 16. 3. 2024,
AP News 2023: https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-nuclear-weapons-shipments-lukashenko-poland- a035933e0c4baa0015e2ef2c1f5d9b1a. 21. 3. 2024,
AP News 2023. Bulgaria agrees to send heavy military equipment to Ukraine for the first time since the invasion. https://apnews.com/article/bulgaria-ukraine-armored-carriers-military-aid- 7f256492a063c154ca614c18ab95aced. 9. 3. 2024,
Astapenia 2023: Ryhor Astapenia. Chatham house. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/12/russias-war- ukraine-has-strengthened-lukashenka-undermined-belarus. 21. 3. 2024,
Brookes 2023: Peter Brookes. Russia’s strategy in sending tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-belarus-nuclear/. 20. 2. 2024,
Воскресенье 2014. https://www.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-podtverdil-chto-s-territorii-belarusi-byli- zapuscheny-rakety-po-pozitsijam-v-ukraine-no-eto-487330-2022/. 21. 3. 2024,
Euronews 2024. Central European countries show deep rifts on Ukraine war at V4 meeting. https://www.euronews.com/2024/02/27/central-european-countries-show-deep-rifts-on-ukraine-war-at-v4- meeting. 28. 2. 2024,
Genctruk 2023: Ahmet Genctruk. Poland places orders for $23.8B in weapons purchases. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/poland-places-orders-for-238b-in-weapons-purchases/2984964. 20. 2. 2024,
Gencturk 2023: Ahmet Gencturk. War in Ukraine forced Bulgaria to improve defense capabilities: Defense minister. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/war-in-ukraine-forced-bulgaria-to-improve-defense- capabilities-defense-minister/2983275. 10. 3. 2024,
Gencturk-Eruygur 2023: Ahmet Gencturk-Eruygur. Romania, Ukraine agree to elevate relations to strategic partnership. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/romania-ukraine-agree-to-elevate-relations-to-strategic- partnership/3014633. 11. 3. 2024,
Government of The Czech Republic 2023. Czechia sends hundreds of heavy military systems worth tens of billions to Ukraine during the first year of Russian invasion. https://vlada.gov.cz/en/media- centrum/tiskove-zpravy/czechia-sends-hundreds-of-heavy-military-systems-worth-tens-of-billions-to- ukraine-during-the-first-year-of-russian-invasion-203252/. 1. 3. 2024,
Goslin 2023: Tim Goslin. Attacks on Ukraininas in Chechia are on the rise. https://balkaninsight.com/2023/10/12/attacks-on-ukrainians-in-czechia-are-on-the-rise/. 26. 2. 2024
George-Weyeman 2023: Mathew George-Pieter Weyeman. Tensions on the Belarus border: A look at military spending and arms import patterns. https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical- backgrounder/2023/tensions-belarus-border-look-military-spending-and-arms-import-patterns. 20. 2. 2024,
Herz 1950: John H. Herz. Idealist Internationalism and the Securitiy Dilemma. World Politics. Vol. 2, No. 2, 1950, pp. 157-180,
Ilie 2023: Luiza Ilie. Romania bolsters defences to stop Ukraine war crossing NATO threshold. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-bolsters-defences-stop-ukraine-war-crossing-nato- threshold-2023-09-29/. 13. 3. 2024,
Istepanov 2024: Aslan Istepanov. Slovakia’s Stance on the Ukrainian War. https://www.ankasam.org/slovakias- stance-on-the-ukrainian-war/?lang=en. 3. 3. 2024,
Janicek 2024: Karel Janicek. Deep divisions on Russia’s war in Ukraine were evident at a meeting of 4 Central European countries. https://apnews.com/article/czech-republic-poland-ukraine-war-russia- cb30efe44a452b8e4871aa1d1182ddda. 2. 3. 2024,
Kirichenko 2023: David Kirichenko. To protect Europe, the West should send arms to Moldova. https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/22/to-protect-europe-the-west-should-send-arms-to-moldova. 18. 3. 2024,
Kumar Sen 2023: Ashish Kumar Sen. Romania Worries About Fallout from Ukraine War. https://cepa.org/article/romania-worries-about-fallout-from-ukraine-war/. 13. 3. 2024),
Laster-Michael 2023: Maya Lester KC-Michael O’Kane. Belarus – sanctions regime. https://globalsanctions.co.uk/region/belarus/. 20. 2. 2024,
Lukiv 2024: Jaroslav Lukiv. Trump will not give a penny to Ukraine - Hungary PM Orban. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68533351. 6. 3. 2024,
Mackinder 2004: Halford J. Mackinder. „The Geographical Pivot of History“. The Geographical Journal. год. 2004. Vol. 170, No. 4, 298-321,
McGrath-Ghirda 2023: Stephen McGrath-Vadim Ghirda. ‘No risk’ that NATO member Romania will be dragged into war, senior alliance official says. https://apnews.com/article/romania-ukraine-nato-russia-war-drones- 8a80bf6604bbd5506d1eef1358ddc9c2. 15. 3. 2024),
McGrath-Obreja 2024: Stephen McGrath-Aurel Obreja. Moldova faces multiple threats from Russia as it turns toward EU membership, foreign minister says. https://apnews.com/article/moldova-russia-war-ukraine- transnistria-eu-6c14d96e8cdc0bc699f0315eecaab4f6. 16. 3. 2024,
Мијалковић 2018. Саша Мијалковић. Национална безбедност – четврто, измењено и допуњено издање. Београд: Криминалистичко-полицијска академија,
Necsutu 2023: Madalin Necsutu. Romanians Hosting Ukrainian Refugees Complain of Delay in Payments. https://balkaninsight.com/2023/03/23/romanians-hosting-ukrainian-refugees-complain-of-delay-in- payments/. 12. 3. 2024,
Nikolov 2023: Krassen Nikolov. Bulgarian president accuses Ukraine of not wanting to stop Russian war. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/bulgarian-president-accuses-ukraine-of-not-wanting-to- stop-russian-war/. 7. 3. 2024,
Novakova 2024: Veronica Novakova. Russian invasion of Ukraine: How does it affect the Czech Republic?. https://www.humanrightscentre.org/blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-how-does-it-affect-czech-republic. 1. 3. 2024,
Ozturk 2024: Mustafa Ozturk. Hungary's position on war in Ukraine remains unchanged: Orban. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/hungarys-position-on-war-in-ukraine-remains-unchanged-orban/3125375. 5. 3. 2024,
Pasha-Lutsevych 2024: Valeriu Pasha-Orysia Lutsevych. Is Moldova a new battleground in Russia’s war?. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/moldova-new-battleground-russias-war. 18. 3. 2024,
Pollet 2024: Mathieu Pollet. Slovak PM: Ukraine must give up territory to end Russian invasion. https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-ukraine-cede-territory-russia-moscow- invasion-nato-entry/. 3. 3. 2024,
Potter 2024: Benjamin Potter. Unrecognized Republic, Recognizable Consequences. https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press/MCU-Journal/Journal-of-Advanced- Military-Studies-SI-2022/Unrecognized-Republic-Recognizable-Consequences-Russian-Troops-in-Frozen- Transnistria/. 16. 3. 2024,
Seltzer 2019: Nicholas Seltzer. Liberalism and the Security Dilemma: Are International Institutions Effective?. Reno: University of Nevada,
Shiping 2009: Tang Shiping. The Security Dilemma: A Conceptual Analysis. Security Studies. DOI: 10.1080/09636410903133050, 587–623,
Shtreber: 2013. Источна Европа. https://shtreber.com/istocna-evropa. [11. 1. 2024.],
Szczerbiak 2022: Aleks Szczerbiak. How will the Russia-Ukraine war affect Poland’s rule of law dispute with the EU? https://www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-analysis/how-will-the-russia-ukraine-war-affect- polands-rule-of-law-dispute-with-the-eu/. 28. 2. 2024,
Suetomi 2022. Junko Suetomi. Japan introduces further sanctions against Russia and Belarus. https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/japan-introduces-further-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-3/. 20. 2. 2024,
Thorpe 2023: Nick Thorpe. What has Hungary's Orban got against Ukraine?. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67725570. 5. 3. 2024,
Трапара 2014: Трапара Владимир. „Савремени значај макиндеровог концепта Источне Европе: случај украјинске кризе“, Институт за међународну политику и привреду. год. 2014. год. LXV, бр. 1155– 1156, 26–43,
United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Standard country or area codes for statistical use . https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methodology/m49/#geo-regions. 15. 1. 2024,
Вилијамс 2012: Пол Вилијамс: Увод устудије безбедности. Београд: Факултет безбедности – Универзитет у Београду,
Zankina 2023: Emilia Zankina. Pro-Russia or anti-Russia: Political dilemmas and dynamics in Bulgaria in the context of the war in Ukraine. https://www.populismstudies.org/pro-russia-or-anti-russia-political- dilemmas-and-dynamics-in-bulgaria-in-the-context-of-the-war-in-ukraine/. 8. 3. 2024,
Wivel 2011: Anders Wivel. Security Dilemma. International Encyclopedia of Political Science. 2011, 2389- 2391.