Income convergence of the Western Balkan States on their path to accession to the European Union

  • Sonja Milutinović Univerzitet u Kragujevcu, Fakultet za hotelijesrtvo i turizam u Vrnjačkoj Banji
  • Tanja Stanišić Faculty of Hotel Management and Tourism in Vrnjačka Banja, University of Kragujevac
  • Vladimir Radivojević Faculty of Economics, University of Priština with temporary headquarters in Kosovska Mitrovica
Keywords: income convergence, economic development, European economic integration, Western Balkan States, New Member States, Global Economic Crisis

Abstract


The common and main strategic goal of all Western Balkan States is integration into the European Union. Therefore, the transition of the Western Balkan region, as was the case with other Central European transition countries, must be seen as a part of the European integration process. The aim of this research is to tests whether income convergence exists between Western Balkan States and the developed European Union countries, with a comparison with New Member States. In order to test this assumption, regression analysis is used. The results did not confirm the existence of income convergence in the entire observed period (1995-2019). However, the results indicate a strong impact of the Global Economic Crisis on income convergence, so it existed in the years before and after the Global Economic Crisis. Results also showed faster growth of the New Member States than the Western Balkan States.

Author Biography

Sonja Milutinović, Univerzitet u Kragujevcu, Fakultet za hotelijesrtvo i turizam u Vrnjačkoj Banji

asisitent za užu naučnu oblast opšta ekonomija

References

Akinci, M. & Yilmaz, O. (2012). Per Capita Income Convergence among European Union Countries: Haldane - Hall Approach. Marmara Journal of European Studies, 20(2), 39-61. Retrieved from https://www.acarindex.com/dosyalar/makale/acarindex-1423908433.pdf.


Cavenaile, L. & Dubois, D. (2011). An Empirical Analysis of Income Convergence in the European Union. Applied Economics Letters, 18(17), 1705-1708. doi: 10.1080/13504851.2011.560104.


EBRD. (2016-17). Transition Report 2016-17 – Transition for All: Equal Opportunities in an Unequal World. London, United Kingdom.


EBRD. (2013). Transition Report 2013 – Stuck in Transition? London, United Kingdom.


EBRD. (2010). Transition report 2010 – Recovery and Reform. London United Kingdom.


El Оuardighi, J. & Somun-Kapetanović, R. (2009). Convergence and Inequality of Income: the Case of Western Balkan Countries. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 6(2), 207-225. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/50829266_Convergence_and_Inequality_of_income_the_case_of_Western_Balkan_countries.


Gligorić, M. (2014). Paths of Income Convergence Between Country Pairs Within Europe. Economic Annals, 59(201), 123-156. doi: 0.2298/eka1401123g.


Lucas R.E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 251-272. Retrieved from https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/docs/darcillon-thibault/lucasmechanicseconomicgrowth.pdf.


Matkowski, Z. & Prochniak, M. (2004). Real economic convergence in the EU accession countries. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(3), 5-38. Retrieved from https://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs131.pdf.


Matkowski, Z. & Prochniak, M. (2007). Economic convergence between the CEE-8 and the European Union. Eastern European Economics, 45(1), 59-76. doi: 10.2753/EEE0012-8775450103.


Matkowski, Z., Prochniak, M. & Rapacki, R. (2016, September). Real Income Convergence between Central Eastern and Western Europe: Past, Present, and Prospects. Paper presented at the Conference on Economic Tendency Surveys and Economic Policy Copenhagen. Retrieved form http://www.pte.pl/pliki/1/8905/Ekonomista2016-6-pages-84-123.pdf.


Milutinović, S. (2021). Types and methods of measuring income convergence. Ekonomski izazovi, 10(19), 34-42. doi: 10.5937/EkoIzazov2119034M.


Milutinović, S. & Durkalić, D. (2018, November). Income convergence between Western Balkan countries and European Union. Paper presented at the Contemporary Issues in Economics, Business and Management – EBM2018 Conference. Retrieved from https://ebm.ekfak.kg.ac.rs/sites/default/files/download/EBM%202018.pdf.


IMF. (2015). The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition. Washington DC: Murgasova, Z., Ilahi, N., Miniane, J., Scott, A. & Vladkova-Hollar, I.


Novak, M. & Darmo, Ľ. (2019). Okun’s Law over the Business Cycle: Does it Change in the EU Countries after the Financial Crisis? Prague Economic Papers28(2), 235-254. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.694.


Prochniak, M. & Witkowski, B. (2016). On the Use of Panel Stationarity Tests in Convergence Analysis: Empirical Evidence for the EU Countries. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 11(1). doi: 10.12775/EQUIL.2016.004.


Rapacki, R. & Prochinak, M. (2009). Real Beta and Sigma Convergence in 27 Transition Countries, 1990-2005. Post-Comunist Economies, 21(3), 307-326. doi:10.1080/14631370903090616.


Romer, P. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. Retrieved from https://www.gsid.nagoya-u.ac.jp/sotsubo/Papers/Increasing%20Returns%20and%20Long-Run%20Growth.pdf.


Romer P.M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71-102. Retrieved from https://web.stanford.edu/~klenow/Romer_1990.pdf.


Savić, Lj. & Mićić, V. (2014, November). The Global Economic Crisis – Effects and Consequences. Paper presented at the Contemporary Issues in Economics, Business and Management – EBM 2014 Conference.


Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94. doi: 10.2307/1884513.


Stanisic, N. (2012). The Effects of Economic Crisis on the Income Convergence in the European Union. Acta Oeconomica, 62(2), 161-182. doi: 10.1556/AOecon.62.2012.2.2.


Stanišić, N. (2016). Income convergence in the process of the Western Balkan States’ accession to the European Union. Economic Horizons, 18(1), 3-14. doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1601003S.


Stanišić, N., Makojević, N. & Ćurčić Tubić, T. (2018). The EU Enlargement and Income Convergence: Central and Eastern European Countries vs. Western Balkan Countries. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 6(3), 29-41. doi: 10.15678/EBER.2018.060302.


The World Bank. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators.


Todaro, M.P. & Smith, S.C. (2011). Economic development (11th ed.), Boston: Prentice Hall.


Tsanana, E., Katrakilidis, C. & Pantelidis, P. (2012). Balkan Area and EU-15: An Empirical Investigation of Income Convergence. In A. Karasavvoglou & P. Polychronidou (Eds.), Balkan and Eastern European Countries in the Midst of the Global Economic Crisis, Contributions to Economics (pp. 23-33). Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. doi: 10.1007/978-3-7908-2873-3_2.


Praščević, A. (2013). Achievements of Economic Policy in Overcoming the Effects of the Global Economic Crisis on Serbian Economy. Economic Horizons, 15(1), 19-32. doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1301017P.


Vojinović, B. & Oplotnik, Z. (2008). Real Convergence in the New EU Member States, Praque Economic Papers. 17(1), 23-39, DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.317.


Vojinović, B., Acharya, S. & Prochniak, M. (2009). Convergence Analysis Among the Ten European Transition Economies. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 50(2), 123-141. Retrieved from https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/18049/HJeco0500200170.pdf.

Published
2022/09/01
Section
Original Scientific Paper