Inflation analysis in Indonesia: A monetary or fiscal phenomenon?
Keywords:
Inflation, the Quantity of money supply, Interest Rates, Budget Deficits, EG-ECM
Abstract
Abstract: This study seeks to identify and analyze the effects of monetary phenomena (operationalized with the quantity of money supply and interest rates), fiscal phenomena (operationalized with fiscal deficits), and the implementation of inflation-targeting monetary policies on inflation rates in Indonesia. Using Engle-Granger's Error Correction Model (EG-ECM) and time-series data of 1990-2020, this study empirically demonstrates that interest rates negatively affect inflation rates in Indonesia in both the short-run and long-run. Further, the EG-ECM estimation results suggest that inflation in Indonesia is a monetary phenomenon, as indicated by the significantly negative impact of interest rates on inflation rates in both the short and long runs. Inflation in Indonesia is not a fiscal phenomenon because fiscal deficits do not affect inflation rates in both the short and long runs. Besides, we also document that ITF policies negatively affect inflation rates in the long run. Our study implies that an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework remains effective in maintaining price stability in Indonesia. The current ITF policy is flexible and can control publicly expected inflation since its implementation in 2005, leading to stable inflation rates.
References
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Hashem, H. Y. M. (2017). Inflation in Egypt: A fiscal or monetary phenomenon? Business and Economic Horizons, 13(4), 522–535. https://doi.org/10.15208/beh.2017.36
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Langi, T. M., Masinambow, V., & Siwu, H. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga BI, Jumlah Uang Beredar, dan Tingkat Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia. 14(2). https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/jbie/article/view/4184/3713
Lim, Y. C., & Sek, S. K. (2015). An examination on the determinants of inflation. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(7), 678–682. https://doi.org/10.7763/joebm.2015.v3.265
Lissovolik, B. (2003). Determinants of inflation in a transition Economy: The case of Ukraine. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 03, Issue 126, p. 1). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854923.001
Lopez-Martin, B., Ramírez de Aguilar, A., & Sámano, D. (2018). Fiscal policy and inflation: Understanding the role of expectations in Mexico. Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Understanding the Role of Expectations in Mexico, August. https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2018.18
Luwihadi, N. L. G. A., & Arka, S. (2017). Determinan jumlah uang beredar dan tingkat inflasi di Indonesia periode 1984-2014. In Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis (Vol. 6, Issue 4). https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eep/article/view/28323&ved=2ahUKEwi21_Ox87_uAhUq8HMBHasEBYQQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2U6dOPFKFJoNh5wfBrHvTl
Maggi, R., & Saraswati, B. D. (2013). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia: Model demand pull inflation. In Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan (Vol. 6, Issue 2). http://download.garuda.ristekdikti.go.id/article.php?article=1353587&val=953&title=FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA MODEL DEMAND PULL INFLATION
Mishkin, F. S. (2015). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (D. Clinton (ed.); Seventh Ed).
Mishkin, F. S. (2016). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (Eleventh e, Issue September).
Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets.
Ningsih, S., & Kristiyanti, L. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Periode 2014-2016. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sumber Daya, 20(1), 8. http://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/dayasaing/article/view/7258
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Putri, V. K. M. (2021). Penyebab inflasi setelah proklamasi kemerdekaan. Kompas.Com. https://www.kompas.com/skola/read/2021/02/23/215632069/penyebab-inflasi-setelah-proklamasi-kemerdekaan
Rachman, F. (2015). "Does Inflation-targeting framework Make a Significant Difference in Lowering Price Level?" What is Its Implication to Indonesia's Inflation Rate? Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 61(2), 131. https://doi.org/10.7454/efi.v61i2.508
Rosyetti, & Eriyati. (2010). Pengaruh defisit anggaran terhadap inflasi di Indonesia tahun 1981-2010. 69. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/8863-ID-pengaruh-defisit-anggaran-terhadap-inflasi-di-indonesia-tahun-1981-2010.pdf
Setiawan, A. (2012). Inflation-targeting framework Dan Perubahan Respon Kebijakan Moneter. Jurnal BPPK, 5, 65–76. https://jurnal.bppk.kemenkeu.go.id/jurnalbppk/article/view/92
Sholikhin, M. Y., & Cahyono, H. (2016). Pengaruh Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Inflasi dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) di Indonesia. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi (JUPE), 4(3), 1–7. https://ejournal.unesa.ac.id/index.php/jupe/article/view/16315
Sinay, L. J. (2014). Pendekatan vector error correction model untuk analisis hubungan inflasi, BI rate, dan kurs dolar Amerika Serikat. 8(2), 9–18. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/277542-pendekatan-vector-error-correction-model-742a4389.pdf
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Suseno, & Astiyah, S. (2010). Seri kebanksentralan no. 22 - Inflasi. In Bank Indonesia (Vol. 22, Issue 22, pp. 1–68). Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan (PPSK) BI. http://ipief.umy.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/22.-Inflasi.pdf
Susmiati, S., Giri, N. P. R., & Senimantara, N. (2021). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Kurs) Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2018. Warmadewa Economic Development Journal (WEDJ), 4(2), 68–74. https://doi.org/10.22225/wedj.4.2.2021.68-74
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Trisdian, P. A., Pratomo, Y., & Saraswati, B. D. (2015). Volatilitas Inflasi Daerah di Indonesia: Fenomena Moneter atau Fiskal? Studi Pembangunan Interdisiplin, 24, 76–89. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24246/kritis.v24i1p76-89
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World Bank Open Data. (2023b). Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %). World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG
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Yanti, Y. W. T. F., & Soebagyo, D. (2022). Analisis pengaruh jub, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi di Indonesia tahun 2005-2021. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo, 8(2), 249. https://doi.org/10.35906/jep.v8i2.1256
Ahmed, H. (2007). Is inflation a fiscal phenomenon in Pakistan ? 1–46. https://www.ukdataservice.ac.uk/media/263190/ahmad-paper.pdf
Amaliyah, F., & Aryanto, A. (2022). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Owner, 6(2), 1342–1349. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v6i2.737
Ananta, A. D., & Widodo, P. (2021). Analisis determinasi inflasi di Indonesia tahun 2015-2019. Prosiding Seminar Nasional & Call for Paper STIE AAS, September, 189–200.
Anggoro, D. A. (2010). Analisis Hubungan Variabel Moneter di Indonesia Sebelum dan Sesudah Penerapan Kebijakan Inflation-targeting framework (ITF) Periode (1991.1-2014.4). Director, 15(40), 6–13. http://awsassets.wwfnz.panda.org/downloads/earth_summit_2012_v3.pdf%0Ahttp://hdl.handle.net/10239/131%0Ahttps://www.uam.es/gruposinv/meva/publicaciones jesus/capitulos_espanyol_jesus/2005_motivacion para el aprendizaje Perspectiva alumnos.pdf%0Ahttps://ww
Bank Indonesia. (2023). Tujuan Kebijakan Moneter. Website. https://www.bi.go.id/id/fungsi-utama/moneter/default.aspx
Biro Analisa Anggaran dan Pelaksanaan APBN-SETJEN DPR RI. (2019). Peran Positif Defisit Anggaran Dalam Mendorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. Biro Analisa Anggaran Dan Pelaksanaan APBN-SETJEN DPR RI, 53(9), 1–3. https://www.dpr.go.id/doksetjen/dokumen/apbn_Peran_Positif_Defisit_Anggaran_Dalam_Mendorong_Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi20150130084913.pdf
Candrono, P., Sarwedi, & Yuliati, L. (2015). Pengaruh defisit anggaran terhadap inflasi di Indonesia tahun 2001 . Q1-2013 . Q4 : Pendekatan fiscal theory of price level ( The effect of budget deficit on inflation in Indonesia 2001 . Q1- 2013 . Q4 : Fiscal theory of price level approach). 41–52. http://repository.unej.ac.id/bitstream/handle/123456789/75095/Judul-04.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Databank World Bank. (2021). Real interest rate (%)-Indonesia. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FR.INR.RINR?locations=ID&view=chart
Don Sama Lelo, Y., Dwi Astuti, R., & Suharsih, S. (2018). The determinant of inflation in Indonesia: Partial adjustment model approach. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 19(2), 157–166. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.19.2.5007
Doyin, S., & Ikechukwu, K. (2005). Is inflation always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon? Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107(2), 239–259. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2005.00406.x
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2013). Basic econometrics. In N. Fox (Ed.), Introductory Econometrics: A Practical Approach (fifth Edition). Douglas Reiner.
Hashem, H. Y. M. (2017). Inflation in Egypt: A fiscal or monetary phenomenon? Business and Economic Horizons, 13(4), 522–535. https://doi.org/10.15208/beh.2017.36
Heru Perlambang. (2010). Analisis pengaruh jumlah uang beredar, suku bunga Sbi, nilai tukar terhadap tingkat inflasi. Media Ekonomi, 19(2), 49–69. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/224598-none-f4d91019.pdf
Hussain, M. I., & Zafar, T. (2018). The interrelationship between money supply, inflation, public expenditure, and economic growth. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 7(1), 1–24. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/296307338.pdf
Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. (2022). Defisit APBD. https://djpk.kemenkeu.go.id/?ufaq=apa-yang-dimaksud-dengan-defisit-apbd-dan-bagaimana-tindak-lanjutnya
Krisnaldy. (2017). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar, Produk Domestik Bruto, Kurs Dan Tingkat Bunga Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Pendekatan Error Corection Model. Media Ekonomi, 19(2), 43. http://openjournal.unpam.ac.id/index.php/kreatif/article/view/708%0Ahttps://media.neliti.com/media/publications/224598-none-f4d91019.pdf
Langi, T. M., Masinambow, V., & Siwu, H. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga BI, Jumlah Uang Beredar, dan Tingkat Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia. 14(2). https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/jbie/article/view/4184/3713
Lim, Y. C., & Sek, S. K. (2015). An examination on the determinants of inflation. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(7), 678–682. https://doi.org/10.7763/joebm.2015.v3.265
Lissovolik, B. (2003). Determinants of inflation in a transition Economy: The case of Ukraine. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 03, Issue 126, p. 1). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854923.001
Lopez-Martin, B., Ramírez de Aguilar, A., & Sámano, D. (2018). Fiscal policy and inflation: Understanding the role of expectations in Mexico. Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Understanding the Role of Expectations in Mexico, August. https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2018.18
Luwihadi, N. L. G. A., & Arka, S. (2017). Determinan jumlah uang beredar dan tingkat inflasi di Indonesia periode 1984-2014. In Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis (Vol. 6, Issue 4). https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eep/article/view/28323&ved=2ahUKEwi21_Ox87_uAhUq8HMBHasEBYQQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2U6dOPFKFJoNh5wfBrHvTl
Maggi, R., & Saraswati, B. D. (2013). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia: Model demand pull inflation. In Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan (Vol. 6, Issue 2). http://download.garuda.ristekdikti.go.id/article.php?article=1353587&val=953&title=FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA MODEL DEMAND PULL INFLATION
Mishkin, F. S. (2015). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (D. Clinton (ed.); Seventh Ed).
Mishkin, F. S. (2016). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (Eleventh e, Issue September).
Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets.
Ningsih, S., & Kristiyanti, L. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Periode 2014-2016. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sumber Daya, 20(1), 8. http://journals.ums.ac.id/index.php/dayasaing/article/view/7258
Panjaitan, M. N. Y., & Wardoyo. (2014). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia. 21(3), 182–193. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/97274-ID-none.pdf
Putri, V. K. M. (2021). Penyebab inflasi setelah proklamasi kemerdekaan. Kompas.Com. https://www.kompas.com/skola/read/2021/02/23/215632069/penyebab-inflasi-setelah-proklamasi-kemerdekaan
Rachman, F. (2015). "Does Inflation-targeting framework Make a Significant Difference in Lowering Price Level?" What is Its Implication to Indonesia's Inflation Rate? Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 61(2), 131. https://doi.org/10.7454/efi.v61i2.508
Rosyetti, & Eriyati. (2010). Pengaruh defisit anggaran terhadap inflasi di Indonesia tahun 1981-2010. 69. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/8863-ID-pengaruh-defisit-anggaran-terhadap-inflasi-di-indonesia-tahun-1981-2010.pdf
Setiawan, A. (2012). Inflation-targeting framework Dan Perubahan Respon Kebijakan Moneter. Jurnal BPPK, 5, 65–76. https://jurnal.bppk.kemenkeu.go.id/jurnalbppk/article/view/92
Sholikhin, M. Y., & Cahyono, H. (2016). Pengaruh Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Inflasi dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) di Indonesia. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi (JUPE), 4(3), 1–7. https://ejournal.unesa.ac.id/index.php/jupe/article/view/16315
Sinay, L. J. (2014). Pendekatan vector error correction model untuk analisis hubungan inflasi, BI rate, dan kurs dolar Amerika Serikat. 8(2), 9–18. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/277542-pendekatan-vector-error-correction-model-742a4389.pdf
Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI). (2021). Jumlah uang beredar (M1). Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/seki/tabel/TABEL1_1.xls
Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI). (2023). Suku Bunga, Diskonto, Imbalan. Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/SEKI/tabel/TABEL1_25_2.xls
Sukirno, S. (2000). Makroekonomi modern perkembangan perkiraan dari klasik hingga keynesian baru (I). PT RajaGrafindo Persada.
Suseno, & Astiyah, S. (2010). Seri kebanksentralan no. 22 - Inflasi. In Bank Indonesia (Vol. 22, Issue 22, pp. 1–68). Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan (PPSK) BI. http://ipief.umy.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/22.-Inflasi.pdf
Susmiati, S., Giri, N. P. R., & Senimantara, N. (2021). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Kurs) Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2018. Warmadewa Economic Development Journal (WEDJ), 4(2), 68–74. https://doi.org/10.22225/wedj.4.2.2021.68-74
Tim Kajian Pusat Kebijakan Ekonomi Makro. (2012). Tim kajian pola krisis ekonomi. https://fiskal.kemenkeu.go.id/data/document/2013/kajian/pkem/Pola Krisis Ekonomi.pdf
Trisdian, P. A., Pratomo, Y., & Saraswati, B. D. (2015). Volatilitas Inflasi Daerah di Indonesia: Fenomena Moneter atau Fiskal? Studi Pembangunan Interdisiplin, 24, 76–89. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24246/kritis.v24i1p76-89
World Bank Open Data. (2023a). Consumer price index (2010 = 100). World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL
World Bank Open Data. (2023b). Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %). World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG
World Bank Open Data. (2023c). Persentase defisit anggaran terhadap PDB nominal di Indonesia tahun 1990-2020. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/country/indonesia
World Bank Open Data. (2023d). Pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar dan pertumbuhan PDB di Indonesia tahun 1990-2020. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/country/indonesia
Yanti, Y. W. T. F., & Soebagyo, D. (2022). Analisis pengaruh jub, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi di Indonesia tahun 2005-2021. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo, 8(2), 249. https://doi.org/10.35906/jep.v8i2.1256