STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN RUSSIA’S INDUSTRY: THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FORECAST

Yuri Belkin; Alla Ryzhakova; Nadezhda Sedova; Anatoly Shishkin

doi:10.5937/jaes0-29159

Yuri Belkin Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Department of Commodity Science and Commodity Expertise, Moscow, Russian Federation
Alla Ryzhakova Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Department of Commodity Science and Commodity Expertise, Moscow, Russian Federation
Nadezhda Sedova Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Department of National and Regional Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
Anatoly Shishkin Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Educational Scientific Center “Trade”, Moscow, Russian Federation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/jaes0-29159

Keywords: industry, structural changes, forecasting, COVID-19

Abstract

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of change in industrial production in Russia from 2008 to 2019 across a set of indicators characterizing structural changes in industry, specifically its extractive, manufacturing, and production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water sectors. Design/Methodology/Approach: The work provides a forecast of output in the three sectors of industry using methods such as Holt’s method and factor analysis, with structural shifts projected using the methods of Szalai, Ryabtsev, Gatev, and Kazinets.

Findings: The empirical results show further changes in the structure of industrial production in the Russian Federation and an increase in manufacturing production at the same time due to a decrease in production by the type of activity "Mining".

Practical Implications: Investors who plan to invest in the Russian Federation should bear in mind that investments in manufacturing production are advisable.

Originality/value: To initiate progressive structural changes, the development and qualitative transformation of the structure of the manufacturing industry is necessary

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