OPTIMIZATION FORECASTING USING BACK-PROPAGATION ALGORITHM

Budi  Raharjo; Nurul  Farida; Purwo  Subekti; Rima Herlina S  Siburian; Putu Doddy Heka  Ardana; Robbi Rahim

doi:10.5937/jaes0-30175

Budi Raharjo Universitas STEKOM, Department of Information System, Semarang, Indonesia
Nurul Farida Universitas Islam Balitar, Department of Management, Blitar, Indonesia
Purwo Subekti Universitas Pasir Pengaraian, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Riau , Indonesia
Rima Herlina S Siburian Universitas Papua, Department of Forestry, Papua Barat, Indonesia
Putu Doddy Heka Ardana Universitas Ngurah Rai, Department of Civil Engineering, Denpasar, Indonesia
Robbi Rahim Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Manajemen Sukma, Medan, Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/jaes0-30175

Keywords: Optimization, back-propagation, parameter, indonesia

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the back-propagation model by optimizing the parameters for the prediction of broiler chicken populations by provinces in Indonesia. Parameter optimization is changing the learning rate (lr) of the backpropagation prediction model. Data sourced from the Directorate General of Animal Husbandry and Animal Health processed by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Data is the population of Broiler Chickens from 2017 to 2019 (34 records). The analysis process uses the help of RapidMiner software. Data is divided into 2 parts, namely training data (2017-2018) and testing data (2018-2019). The backpropagation model used is 1-2-1; 1-25-1 and 1-45-1 with a learning rate (0.1; 0.01; 0.001; 0.2; 0.02; 0.002; 0.3; 0.03; 0.003). From the three models tested, the 1-45-1 model (lr = 0.3) is the best model with Root Mean Squared Error = 0.028 in the training data. With this model, the prediction results obtained with an accuracy value of 91% and Root Mean Squared Error = 0.00555 in the testing data.

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