TECHNOLOGICAL MODERNISATION PROSPECTS FORECAST OF THE MAIN INDUSTRIES IN RUSSIA BASED ON THE ASSESSMENT OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL
Keywords:
modernization, development of the industry, theory of Kondratiyev, upward and downward waves, forecasting, the economy of Russia
Abstract
This article presents theoretical bases of organic modernization and tendencies of development of the main branches of industry in the economy of Russia. The prospects for the modernization of industry are assessed by the criteria for the dynamics of production and exports. The Kondratiev waves downward and upward are identified based on trends in these indicators. According to the Faltsman method, the forecast showed the growth and feasibility of modernizing crop farming, housing construction, and the automotive industry. But, does not show prerequisites for the growth of the oil industry and the military-industrial complex. The results of the study represent practical recommendations for industrial development strategies.
References
1. Kovaleva I.P. (2015). Modernization theory and practice. New word in science and practice: hypotheses and approbation of research results vol. 20, 89-96. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/teoriya-i-praktika-modernizatsii (date accessed: 08/09/2021).
2. Batukova L. (2014) Prerequisites for successful modernization in Russia. Science and innovations. vol. 131, 34-36. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/predposylki-neobhodimye-dlya-provedeniya-uspeshnoy-modernizatsii-v-rossii (date accessed: 14.08.2021).
3. Faltsman V.K. (2012) Variants of technological modernization of Russia. Modern Europe, vol. 4 no. 52, 5-18. URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_18127453_81524789.htm (date accessed: 07.08.2021).
4. Doroshenko Y. A., Starikova M.S., Riapukhina V.N. (2021) Models of Regional Development in Russia: Level of Industrialisation and Innovative Performance. Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics, vol. 32 no. 3, 247–257. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.32.3.25897
5. Malykhina I.O., Riapuhina V.N., Chizhova E.N., Rozdolskaya I.V. (2020) Neo-industrialization as the Bases of the Innovative Trajectory of the Development of Russian Industry before and during the Coronavirus Disease-19 Pandemic. Open Access Maced J Med Sci [Internet]. Dec. 25 [cited 2021 Oct. 31]; 8(E):685-92. Available from: https://oamjms.eu/index.php/mjms/article/view/5676
6. Kondratiev N.D. (2002). Conjuncture supercycles and the theory of foresight. International ND Kondratiev Foundation - M.: Economics, p. 765.
7. Faltsman V.K. (2018) Key tasks and prospects for the Russian economy development in line with the "Kondratieff supercycles". Problems of forecasting, vol. 4 no. 169, 27-37. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/klyuchevye-zadachi-i-perspektivy-razvitiya-rossiyskoy-ekonomiki-v-rusle-kondratievskih-bolshih-tsiklov (date accessed: 07.08.2021).
8. Shapovalov D. A., Khabarov D. A., et al. (2020) Russian market of oil and oil products. International Journal of Applied Sciences and Technologies "Integral", vol. 3. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/rossiyskiy-rynok-nefti-i-nefteproduktov (date accessed: 24.10.2021).
9. Surenkov V.A. (2019). Russian grain market. Development specifics. Innovations and investments, vol. 7. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/rossiyskiy-rynok-zerna-spetsifika-razvitiya (date of access: 10.24.
10. Kenchadze D.D. et al. (2020). Construction in Russia 2020. p. 114 URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/tASKTSkO/Stroitelstvo_2020.pdf (date accessed: 10.24.
11. Romanov M.I. (2021). Development dynamics of the Russia military-industrial complex: problems and prospects. Innovations and investments, vol. 2. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/dinamika-razvitiya-oboronno-promyshlennogo-kompleksa-rossii-problemy-i-perspektivy (date accessed: 24.10.2021).
12. Zakrevskaya Ya.N. (2020). Present automotive industry in Russia. Education and law, vol. 7. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/avtomobilnaya-promyshlennost-rossii-na-sovremennom-etape (date of access: 24.10.2021).
13. Faltsman V.K. (2019) What if Russia runs out of own oil resources? Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 4:152-160. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-4-152-160
14. Faltsman V. (2017) Overcoming the Crisis in Russia’s Foreign Trade, Russian Politics & Law, 55:6, 436-456, DOI: 10.1080/10611940.2017.1574501
15. Doroshenko Y.A., Malykhina I.O., Somina I.V. (2020) Methodology of the Formation of a Comprehensive Support Mechanism of Innovation and Investment Development in the Region. In: Karabegović I. (eds) New Technologies, Development and Application III. NT 2020. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 128. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46817-0_103
16. Doroshenko Y.A., Minaeva L.A., Somina I.V., Glagoleva N.N. (2020) Mechanism of Stimulate the Growth of Highly Competitive Technology Business. In: Karabegović I. (eds) New Technologies, Development and Application III. NT 2020. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 128. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46817-0_102
2. Batukova L. (2014) Prerequisites for successful modernization in Russia. Science and innovations. vol. 131, 34-36. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/predposylki-neobhodimye-dlya-provedeniya-uspeshnoy-modernizatsii-v-rossii (date accessed: 14.08.2021).
3. Faltsman V.K. (2012) Variants of technological modernization of Russia. Modern Europe, vol. 4 no. 52, 5-18. URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_18127453_81524789.htm (date accessed: 07.08.2021).
4. Doroshenko Y. A., Starikova M.S., Riapukhina V.N. (2021) Models of Regional Development in Russia: Level of Industrialisation and Innovative Performance. Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics, vol. 32 no. 3, 247–257. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.32.3.25897
5. Malykhina I.O., Riapuhina V.N., Chizhova E.N., Rozdolskaya I.V. (2020) Neo-industrialization as the Bases of the Innovative Trajectory of the Development of Russian Industry before and during the Coronavirus Disease-19 Pandemic. Open Access Maced J Med Sci [Internet]. Dec. 25 [cited 2021 Oct. 31]; 8(E):685-92. Available from: https://oamjms.eu/index.php/mjms/article/view/5676
6. Kondratiev N.D. (2002). Conjuncture supercycles and the theory of foresight. International ND Kondratiev Foundation - M.: Economics, p. 765.
7. Faltsman V.K. (2018) Key tasks and prospects for the Russian economy development in line with the "Kondratieff supercycles". Problems of forecasting, vol. 4 no. 169, 27-37. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/klyuchevye-zadachi-i-perspektivy-razvitiya-rossiyskoy-ekonomiki-v-rusle-kondratievskih-bolshih-tsiklov (date accessed: 07.08.2021).
8. Shapovalov D. A., Khabarov D. A., et al. (2020) Russian market of oil and oil products. International Journal of Applied Sciences and Technologies "Integral", vol. 3. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/rossiyskiy-rynok-nefti-i-nefteproduktov (date accessed: 24.10.2021).
9. Surenkov V.A. (2019). Russian grain market. Development specifics. Innovations and investments, vol. 7. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/rossiyskiy-rynok-zerna-spetsifika-razvitiya (date of access: 10.24.
10. Kenchadze D.D. et al. (2020). Construction in Russia 2020. p. 114 URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/tASKTSkO/Stroitelstvo_2020.pdf (date accessed: 10.24.
11. Romanov M.I. (2021). Development dynamics of the Russia military-industrial complex: problems and prospects. Innovations and investments, vol. 2. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/dinamika-razvitiya-oboronno-promyshlennogo-kompleksa-rossii-problemy-i-perspektivy (date accessed: 24.10.2021).
12. Zakrevskaya Ya.N. (2020). Present automotive industry in Russia. Education and law, vol. 7. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/avtomobilnaya-promyshlennost-rossii-na-sovremennom-etape (date of access: 24.10.2021).
13. Faltsman V.K. (2019) What if Russia runs out of own oil resources? Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 4:152-160. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-4-152-160
14. Faltsman V. (2017) Overcoming the Crisis in Russia’s Foreign Trade, Russian Politics & Law, 55:6, 436-456, DOI: 10.1080/10611940.2017.1574501
15. Doroshenko Y.A., Malykhina I.O., Somina I.V. (2020) Methodology of the Formation of a Comprehensive Support Mechanism of Innovation and Investment Development in the Region. In: Karabegović I. (eds) New Technologies, Development and Application III. NT 2020. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 128. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46817-0_103
16. Doroshenko Y.A., Minaeva L.A., Somina I.V., Glagoleva N.N. (2020) Mechanism of Stimulate the Growth of Highly Competitive Technology Business. In: Karabegović I. (eds) New Technologies, Development and Application III. NT 2020. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 128. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46817-0_102
