Underbalancing in a Regional World
Abstract
This paper adapts underbalancing theory to explain regional powers’ decisions when faced with the politics of great power intrusion. The paper finds two situations where regional powers defy expectations and details the causal models using India (1979-1980) and Russia (1996-1999) as illustrative cases. The cases find underbalancing theory wanting at the regional level. In each case, the regional power performs a variety of diplomatic maneuvers—including but not limited to balancing and underbalancing—to mitigate the fallout of great power decisions. This is explained by the power asymmetries dividing great and regional powers, both constraining the actions of regional powers while motivating more creative diplomatic practices. It is said that great powers are “Gullivers,” tied down by their many responsibilities. This paper tells a different story, in which obstinate great powers make decisions without consideration for the locale where those decisions are carried out. It is the regional powers that are tied down by geostrategic position and regional security externalities. However weak or strong, these externalities create threats too salient to ignore. The findings suggest international political processes and outcomes can only be comprehensible by accounting for regional contexts and regional powers.
References
Bibliography
Acharya, Amitav 1992. “Regional Military-Security Cooperation in the Third World: A Conceptual Analysis of the Relevance and Limitations of ASEAN.” Journal of Peace Research 29 (1):1-27.
Adler, Emannual and Michael Barnett. 1998. Security Communities. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bajpai, Kanti. 1996. “Security and SAARC.” South Asian Survey 3 (1): 295-307.
Barry, Donald D. 2002. Russian Politics: The Post-Soviet Phase. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Bhargava, G.S. 1983. South Asian Security After Afghanistan. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
Brudenell, Anna Maria. 2008. “Russia’s Role in the Kosovo Conflict of 1999.” The RUSI Journal 153 (1): 30-34.
Buzan, Barry, Ole Wæver, and Jaap de Wilde. 1998. Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Boulder, CO: Lynne Reinner.
Buzan, Barry and Ole Wæver. 2003. Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Cheema, Pervaiz Iqbal. 1983. “The Afghanistan Crisis and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma.” Asian Survey 23 (3): 227-243.
Colaresi, Michael P., Karen Rasler, and William R. Thompson. 2007. Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Copeland, Dale C. 2012. “Realism and Neorealism in the Study of Regional Conflict.” In International Relations Theory and Regional Transformation, edited by T.V. Paul, 49-73. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Dash, Kishore C. 2001. “The Challenge of Regionalism in South Asia.” International Politics 38 (2): 201-228.
Dash, Kishore C. 2008. Regionalism in South Asia: Negotiating Cooperation, Institutional Structures. New York: Routledge.
Destradi, Sandra. 2010. “Regional Powers and their Strategies: Empire, Hegemony, and Leadership.” Review of International Studies 36 (4): 903-930.
Destradi, Sandra. 2017. “Reluctance in International Politics: A Conceptualization.” European Journal of International Relations 23 (2): 315-340.
Deutsch, Karl et al. 1957. Political Community and the North Atlantic Area. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Elman, Colin. 2005. “Explanatory Typologies in Qualitative Studies of International Politics.” International Organization 59 (2): 293-326.
Fawcett, Louise. 2004. “Exploring Regional Domains: A Comparative History of Regionalism.” International Affairs 80 (3): 429-446.
Ferguson, Chaka. 2012. “The Strategic Use of Soft Balancing: The Normative Dimensions of the Chinese-Russian ‘Strategic Partnership’.” Journal of Strategic Studies 35 (2): 197-222.
Frye, Alton. 2000. “The New NATO and Relations with Russia.” The Journal of Strategic Studies 23 (3): 92-110.
Fukuyama, Francis. 1982. “Pakistan Since the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan.” Strategic Issues Research Memorandum/Paper No. 82. Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College.
Galeano, Eduardo. 1973. Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent. New York: Monthly Review Press.
George, Alexander L. and Andrew Bennett. 2004. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Ghosh, Partha S. and Rajaram Panda. 1983. “Domestic Support for Mrs. Gandhi’s Afghan Policy: The Soviet Factor in Indian Politics.” Asian Survey 23 (3): 261-279.
Gibbs, David N. 2006. “Reassessing Soviet Motives for Invading Afghanistan: A Declassified History.” Critical Asian Studies 38 (2): 239-263.
Girardet, Edward. 1985. Afghanistan: The Soviet War. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Gobarev, Vicktor. 1999. “Russia-NATO Relations After the Kosovo Crisis: Strategic Implications.” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies 12 (3): 1-17.
Goh, Evelyn. 2007. “Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia: Analyzing Regional Security Strategies.” International Security 32 (3): 113-157.
Götz, Elias. 2021. “Neoclassical Realist Theories, Intervening Variables, and Paradigmatic Boundaries.” Foreign Policy Analysis 17 (2): 1-13.
Gupta, Amit. 1997. Building An Arsenal: The Evolution of Regional Power Force Structures. Westport, CT: Praeger.
Gupta, Jyotirindra Das. 1980. “India 1979: The Prize Chair and the People’s Share – Electoral Diversion and Economic Reversal.” Asian Survey 20 (2): 176-187.
Gupta, Jyotirindra Das. 1981. “India in 1980: Strong Center, Weak Authority.” Asian Survey 21 (2): 147-161.
Gupta, Bhabni Sen. 1982. The Afghan Syndrome: How to Live with Soviet Power. New Delhi: Vikas Publishing House.
Haider, Zaglul. 2001. “Crises of Regional Cooperation in South Asia.” Security Dialogue 32 (4): 423-437.
Hameiri, Shahar. 2013. “Theorizing Regions Through Changes in Statehood: Rethinking the Theory and Method of Comparative Regionalism.” Review of International Studies 39 (2): 313-335.
Hanif, Melanie. 2010. “Indian Involvement in Afghanistan in the Context of the South Asian Security System.” Journal of Strategic Security 3 (2): 13-26.
Heller, Regina. 2014. “Russia’s Quest for Respect in the International Conflict Management in Kosovo.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 47 (3): 333-343.
Hemmer, Christopher and Peter J. Katzenstein. 2002. “Why is There No NATO in Asia? Collective Identity, Regionalism, and the Origins of Multilateralism.” International Organization 56 (3): 575-607.
Hilali, A.Z. 2001. “China’s Response to the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan.” Central Asian Survey 20 (3): 323-351.
Horn, Robert C. 1983. “Afghanistan and the Soviet-Indian Influence Relationship.” Asian Survey 23 (3): 244-260.
Hughes, James. 2013. “Russia and the Secession of Kosovo: Power, Norms and the Failure of Multilateralism.” Europe-Asia Studies 65 (5): 992-1016.
Hurrell, Andrew. 1992. “Brazil as a Regional Great Power: A Study in Ambivalence.” In Regional Great Powers in International Politics, edited by Iver B. Neumann, 16-48. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Hurrell, Andrew. 1995. “Explaining the Resurgence of Regionalism in World Politics.” Review of International Studies 21 (4): 331-358.
Hutto, J. Wesley. 2021. “Power Dynamics at the Global-Regional Nexus: Examining Structural Constraints on Regional Conflict Management.” International Politics: doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-021-00307-2.
Ikenberry, G. John. 2016. “Between the Eagle and the Dragon: America, China, and Middle State Strategies in East Asia.” Political Science Quarterly 131 (1): 9-43.
Jain, Romi. 2005. “India and SAARC: An Analysis.” Indian Journal of Asian Affairs 18 (2): 55- 74.
Jones, Erik. 2018. “Towards a Theory of Disintegration.” Journal of European Public Policy 25 (3): 440-451.
Jonson, Lena. 2000. “Russia, NATO and the Handling of Conflicts at Russia’s Southern Periphery: At a Crossroads?” European Security 9 (4): 45-72.
Kahneman, Daniel and Amos Tversky. 1997. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica 47: 263-291.
Kelly, Robert E. 2007. “Security Theory in the ‘New Regionalism’.” International Studies Review 9 (2): 197-229.
Lake, David A. 1997. “Regional Security Complexes: A Systems Approach.” In Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World, edited by David A. Lake and Patrick M. Morgan, 45-67. University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press.
Lemke, Douglas. 2002. Regions of War and Peace. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Levy, Jack S. 1992. “Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems.” Political Psychology 13 (2): 283-310.
Lopez-Lucia, Elisa. 2020. “A Tale of Regional Transformation: From Political Community to Security Regions the Politics of Security and Regionalism in West Africa.” Political Geography 82: 1-10.
Lynch, Dov. 1999. “‘Walking the Tightrope’: The Kosovo Conflict and Russia in European Security, 1998-August 1999.” European Security 8 (4): 57-83.
Mastro, Oriana Skylar. 2019. “It Takes Two to Tango: Autocratic Underbalancing, Regime Legitimacy and China’s Responses to India’s Rise.” Journal of Strategic Studies 42 (1): 114-152.
Menon, Rajan. 1978. “India and the Soviet Union: A New Stage of Relations?” Asian Survey 18 (7): 731-750.
Miller, Benjamin. 2005. States, Nations, and the Great Powers: The Sources of Regional War and Peace. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Morgan, Patrick M. 1997. “Regional Security Complexes and Regional Orders.” In Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World, edited by David A. Lake and Patrick M. Morgan, 20-42. University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press.
Muni, S.D. 1985. “SARC: Building Regionalism From Below.” Asian Survey 25 (4): 391-404.
Muni, S.D. 1996. “Regionalism Beyond the Regions: South Asia Outside SAARC.” South Asian Survey 3 (1): 327-338.
NATO, Statement on Kosovo Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council, (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Washington, DC, 23 and 24 April 1999), available at: https://www.nato.int/docu/pr/1999/p99 062e.htm, accessed February 10, 2022.
Nel, Philip. 2010. “Redistribution and Recognition: What Emerging Regional Powers Want.” Review of International Studies 36 (4): 951-974.
Nolte, Detlef and Luis L. Schenoni. 2021. “To Lead or Not to Lead: Regional Powers and Regional Leadership.” International Politics: doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-021 00355-8.
Nolte, Detlef. 2010. “How to Compare Regional Powers: Analytical Concepts and Research Topics.” Review of International Studies 36 (4): 881-901.
Norris, John. 2005. Collision Course: NATO, Russia, and Kosovo. Westport, CT: Praeger.
Paliwal, Avinash. 2017. My Enemy’s Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal. London: Hurst & Co.
Pape, Robert A. 2005. “Soft Balancing Against the United States.” International Security 30 (1): 7-45.
Paul, T.V. 2005. “Soft Balancing in the Age of US Primacy.” International Security 30 (1): 46 71.
Paul, T.V. 2012. International Relations Theory and Regional Transformation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Prys, Miriam. 2012. Redefining Regional Power in International Relations: Indian and South African Perspectives. London: Routledge.
Reichwein, Alexander. 2012. “The Tradition of Neoclassical Realism.” In Neoclassical Realism in European Politics: Bringing Power Back In, edited by Asle Toje and Barbara Kunz, 30-60. Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press.
Romanenko, Sergei. 2000. “The Kosovo Crisis and Russia.” Croatian International Relations Review 6 (18): 11-19.
Schweller, Randall L. 2006. Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Sergounin, Alexander A. 1997. “Russian Domestic Debate on NATO Enlargement: From Phobia to Damage Limitation.” European Security 6 (4): 55-71.
Smith, Chris. 1994. India’s Ad Hoc Arsenal: Direction or Drift in Defence Policy? New York: Oxford University Press.
Smith, Karen. 2018. “South Africa: Still an Ambivalent (Sub)Regional Leader?” Regional Powers and Contested Leadership, edited by Hannes Ebert and Daniel Flemes, 113-136. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Stewart-Ingersoll, Robert, and Derrick V. Frazier. 2012. Regional Powers and Security Orders: A Theoretical Framework. London: Routledge.
Tessman, Brock and Wojtek Wolfe. 2011. “Great Powers and Strategic Hedging: The Case of Chinese Energy Security Strategy.” International Studies Review 13 (2): 214-240.
Thomas, Daniel C. 2017. “Beyond Identity: Membership Norms and Regional Organization.” European Journal of International Relations 23 (1): 217-240.
UN Security Council, “Resolution 1244 (1999)” S/RES/1244 (1999), available at: https://peacemaker.un.org/kosovo-resolution1244, accessed June 12, 2022.
Van Evera, Stephen. 1997. Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science. Ithica: Cornell University Press.
Waltz, Kenneth. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Warleigh-Lack, Alex. 2006. “Towards a Conceptual Framework for Regionalization: Bridging ‘New Regionalism’ and ‘Integration Theory’.” Review of International Political Economy 13 (5): 750-771.
Washburn, Charles. 1871. The History of Paraguay: With Notes of Personal Observations, and Reminiscences of Diplomacy Under Difficulties. Boston: Lee and Shepard.
Webber, Douglas. 2012. “How Likely is it that the European Union will Disintegrate? A Critical Analysis of Competing Theoretical Perspectives.” European Journal of International Relations 20 (2): 341-365.
Weller, Marc. 1999. “The Rambouillet Conference on Kosovo.” International Affairs 75 (2): 211-251.
Wriggins, W. Howard. 1984. “Pakistan’s Search for a Foreign Policy After the Invasion of Afghanistan.” Pacific Affairs 57 (2): 284-303.
Authors retain copyright of the published papers and grant to the publisher the non-exclusive right to publish the article, to be cited as its original publisher in case of reuse, and to distribute it in all forms and media.
The published articles will be distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY). It is allowed to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, and remix, transform, and build upon it for any purpose, even commercially, as long as appropriate credit is given to the original author(s), a link to the license is provided and it is indicated if changes were made. / The published articles will be distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 4.0 International license (CC BY-SA). It is allowed to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, and remix, transform, and build upon it for any purpose, even commercially, as long as appropriate credit is given to the original author(s), a link to the license is provided, it is indicated if changes were made and the new work is distributed under the same license as the original.
Users are required to provide full bibliographic description of the original publication (authors, article title, journal title, volume, issue, pages), as well as its DOI code. In electronic publishing, users are also required to link the content with both the original article published in Journal of Regional Security and the licence used.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted to deposit author’s pre-print / author’s post-print (accepted version) / publisher's version (PDF) of their work in an institutional repository, subject-based repository, author's personal website (including social networking sites, such as ResearchGate, Academia.edu, etc.), and/or departmental website prior or during the submission process / at any time after the acceptance of the manuscript / at any time after publication.
Full bibliographic information (authors, article title, journal title, volume, issue, pages) about the original publication must be provided and links must be made to the article's DOI and the license.