„НУКЛЕАРНО ДЕЉЕЊЕ“ У ЕВРОПИ: ИЗМЕЂУ ПРОЛИФЕРАЦИЈЕ, КОНТРОЛЕ И ЕЛИМИНАЦИЈЕ

  • Marina Kostić Šulejić Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd
Ključne reči: нуклеарно оружје, нуклеарно дељење, проширено нуклеарно одвраћање, европска безбедност, НАТО, непролиферација

Sažetak


Студија истражује стање, контроверзе и будућност политике и распореда снага „нуклеарног дељења“ у Европи, у условима рата у Украјини од 2022. године и на Блиском истоку од 2023. године, као и растуће конфликтности међународних односа. Циљ рада је да утврди могуће правце развоја политике и распореда снага „нуклеарног дељења“ разматрајући опције пролиферације, контроле нуклеарног и конвенционалног наоружања и његове забране и повлачења нуклеарног наоружања са територија ненуклеарних држава. Рад се користи методама историјске анализе и анализе садржаја, синтезе и компаративне методе. Аутор ове сценарије испитује кроз анализу стратешких докумената, доктрина и говора кључних актера, различитих предлога о новим споразумима о контроли наоружања у Европи и активности других европских актера укључених у нуклеарну размену у Европи. Закључак који аутор доноси јесте да актуелни трендови доводе до пролиферацијске кризе у Европи, због чега се морају јачати супротни трендови и снаге које позивају на контролу наоружања и разоружање.

Reference

Извори на ћирилици:

Костић Шулејић, Марина. 2022. Стратешка стабилност у мултиполарном свету. Београд: Институт за међународну политику и привреду.
Костић Шулејић, Марина. 2024. Војна неутралност и нуклеарно оружје – између поседовања и забране. Београд: Институт за међународну политику и привреду.
Обреновић, Миле. 2024. “(Не)успех Немачке у спровођењу америчке стратегије проширеног одвраћања Русије”, Национални интерес - National Interest 49 (3): 51-70.
Пејић, Игор М. 2024. „Проширено одвраћање: концепт, изазови и проблеми.“ Национални Интерес - National Interest 49 (3): 7-28.

Извори на латиници:

A BASIC/ORG project - Briefing 8. 2005. “NATO: Nuclear Sharing or Proliferation?” https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/90409/05-04%20NATO%20Nuclear%20Sharing%20or%20Proliferation.pdf.
Alberque, William. 2017. The NPT and the Origins of NATO's Nuclear Sharing Arrangements. Proliferation Papers 57. Paris: IFRI.
Army Recognition 2025. “Greece Redefines Strategic Balance in Mediterranean with Delivery of Final Rafale Fighter Jets.” https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2025/greece-redefines-strategic-balance-in-mediterranean-with-delivery-of-final-rafale-fighter-jets.
Audenaert, Didier. 2020. Belgium should not change strategy on her contribution to NATO’s nuclear role sharing. Egmont Paper 110. Bruxelles: Egmont.
Bini, Elisabetta and Igor Londero (eds.). 2017. Nuclear Italy: An International History of Italian Nuclear Policies during the Cold War. Trieste: Edizioni Universita de Trieste.
Chevreuil, Astrid. 2024. “France’s Nuclear Offer to Europe.” https://www.csis.org/analysis/frances-nuclear-offer-europe.
Clearwater, John. 1999. U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Canada. Toronto, Oxford, New York: Dundurn Press.
Department of Defence. 2023. “Department of Defense Announces Pursuit of B61 Gravity Bomb Variant.” https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/article/3571660/department-of-defense-announces-pursuit-of-b61-gravity-bomb-variant/.
El Pais. 2022. „US offered disarmament measures to Russia in exchange for deescalation of military threat in Ukraine.” https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-02-02/us-offers-disarmament-measures-to-russia-in-exchange-for-a-deescalation-of-military-threat-in-ukraine.html.
F-35 Lightning II 2024. “F-35: A Dominant Capability For the 21st Century.” https://www.f35.com/f35/global-enterprise/poland.html.
German NSS 2023. “Robust. Resilient. Sustainable. Integrated Security for Germany National Security Strategy.” https://www.nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Security-Strategy-EN.pdf.
Gheorghe, Eliza. 2022. “Balance of Power Redux: Nuclear Alliances and the Logic of Extended Deterrence.” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 15: 87–109.
Hooton, Dr Peter. 2024. “The Extended Nuclear Deterrence Myth.“ https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/the-extended-nuclear-deterrence-myth/
ICAN 2024 n.d. “Is nuclear sharing legal?” https://www.icanw.org/faq_is_nuclear_sharing_legal.
ICAN n.d. “Netherlands”, https://www.icanw.org/netherlands.
IIPS. 2009. “A New Phase in the Japan-US Alliance ‘The Japan US Alliance toward 2020’,” Project Report, Research, Group on the Japan-US Alliance. Tokyo: Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS). https://npi.or.jp/research/data/J-US-SEC2009e.pdf.
Ikegami, Masako. 2012. “The Paradox of Extended Nuclear Deterrence in the Era of Global Nuclear Disarmament.” The 13th PIIC Beijing seminar on International Security, Paper prepared for a session ‘Nuclear disarmament and w world free of nuclear weapons’. https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Masako_Ikegami.pdf.
Jembrzycki, Szymon, 2020. “The Legality of the NATO Nuclear Sharing Program under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.” Rocznik Bezpieczeństwa Międzynarodowego 14 (2): 263-276. DOI: 10.34862/rbm.2020.2.14
Jones, Matthew. The Official History of the UK Strategic Nuclear Deterrent. Volume I. London and New York: Routledge.
Kacprzyk, Artur. 2023. NATO Nuclear Adaptation Rationales for Expanding the Force Posture in Europe. PISM Report. Warsaw: PISM.
Kamp, Dr. Karl-Heinz and Major General Robertus C.N. Remkes. 2011. “Options for NATO Nuclear Sharing Arrangements.“ https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NTI_Framework_Chpt4.pdf.
Kostić Šulejić, Marina. 2023. “Zeitenwende and the German National Security Policy: Analysis of the First National Security Strategy.” The Review of International Affairs 74 (1188): 79-105. DOI: 10.18485/iipe_ria.2023.74.1188.4.
Kostić, Marina T, Andrej Stefanović. 2021. “The Biden Administration and Arms Control.” Политика националне безбедности 21 (2): 45-73. DOI: 10.22182/pnb.2122021.3.
Kostić, Marina T. 2019, “Isključiva priroda evropskih, evroatlantskih i evroazijskih integracija i previranja na evropskom postsovjetskom prostoru.” Međunarodni problemi 71 (4): 498–526. DOI: 10.2298/MEDJP1904498K.
Kostić, Marina T. 2020. “Strateška stabilnost i mogućnosti uključivanјa Kine u pregovore o kontroli strateškog naoružanјa.” Međunarodni problemi 72 (4): 678–708. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/MEDJP2004678K.
Kostić, Marina. 2021. “France, the UK and prospects of multilateralization of formal strategic arms control.” Српска политичка мисао – Serbian Political Thought 73 (3): 27-56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22182/spm.7332021.2.
Kristensen, Hans M. 2005. U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe - A Review of Post-Cold War Policy, Force Levels, and War Planning. Washington: Natural Resources Defense Council.
Kristensen, Hans M., Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight. 2023. “Nuclear weapons sharing, 2023.” https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-11/nuclear-weapons-sharing-2023/
Kühn, Ulrich. 2016. “The Sudden German Nuke Flirtation.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2016/12/the-sudden-german-nuke-flirtation?lang=en.
Lockheed Martin 2024. “Romania becomes the 20th Member of the F-35 Global Alliance.” https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2024-11-21-Romania-Becomes-the-20th-Member-of-the-F-35-Global-Alliance
N1. 2021. „Ministri odbrana zemalja severne Evrope ne prihvataju predlog Rusije.” https://rs.n1info.com/svet/ministri-odbrana-zemalja-severne-evrope-ne-prihvataju-predlog-rusije/.
Narang, Vipin. 2024. “Nuclear Threats and the Role of Allies,” Remarks by Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Dr. Vipin Narang at CSIS, Washington, August 1, 2024. https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3858311/nuclear-threats-and-the-role-of-allies-remarks-by-acting-assistant-secretary-of/.
NATO 2022. “NATO’s Nuclear Sharing Arrangements.” https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/2/pdf/220204-factsheet-nuclear-sharing-arrange.pdf.
NATO NPT. “Negotiations of Articles I and II the NPT, Selected Documents, Volume 2 (1966-1968).” https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/3/pdf/200305-NPT_Book_VOL2.pdf.
NfP 2024. “Foreign minister criticises president for declaring Poland’s willingness to host US nuclear weapons.” https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/05/06/foreign-minister-criticises-president-for-declaring-polands-willingness-to-host-us-nuclear-weapons/.
Norris, Robert S., William M. Arkin анд William Burr, 1999. “Where they were.” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 55 (6): 26-35. DOI: 10.1080/00963402.1999.11460389.
NPT RevCon 2015. “2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.” https://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2015/pdf/NPT%20CONF2015%20MC.I%20SR.1.pdf.
Oğuz, Şafak. 2023. “F-35 Crisis between the U.S. and Türkiye: Is This the End of American Nuclear Assurance for Türkiye?” Insight Turkey 25 (1), 75-89. DOI: 10.25253/99.2023251.5.
Palowski, Jakub. 2023. “Polish F-35 Jets To Be Nuclear Capable? Polish National Security Bureau Takes the Floor.” Defence 24. https://defence24.com/defence-policy/polish-f-35-jets-to-be-nuclear-capable-polish-national-security-bureau-takes-the-floor.
Pleyer, Severin. 2023. “F-35A’s Nuclear Role: A Critical Assessment.” The Defence Horizon Journal. https://tdhj.org/blog/post/f35-nuclear-role-assessment/.
Politico 2024a. “As Trump looms, top EU politician calls for European nuclear deterrent.” https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-nuclear-warfare-detterence-manfred-weber-vladimir-putin-ukraine-russia-war/.
Reuters 2024. “Turkey's KAAN fighter jet conducts first flight.” https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-kaan-fighter-jet-conducts-first-flight-2024-02-21/.
Rigert, Bernd. 2023. “Makron i NATO: svojevremeno „klinički mrtav“, sad ponovo živ”, Deutshe Welle. https://www.dw.com/sr/makron-i-nato-svojevremeno-klini%C4%8Dki-mrtav-sad-ponovo-%C5%BEiv/a-65790018.
Rühle, Michael. 2008. “NATO’s Future Nuclear Doctrine: Factor Shaping a Decision.” In Nuclear Doctrines and Strategies, eds. Mark Fitzpatrick, ‎A. I. Nikitin and ‎Sergeĭ Oznobishchev, 58-63. Amsterdam: IOS Press.
Snyder, Susi & Wilbert van der Zeijden. 2011. Withdrawal Issues: What NATO countries say about the future of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. Utrecht: IKV Pax Christi.
Spagnuolo, Laura. 2009. „NATO nuclear burden sharing and NPT obligations (PDF).“ https://web.archive.org/web/20120317052018/http://www.basicint.org/sites/default/files/gtz13.pdf.
Sputnik International 2021b. “Moscow on Nukes in Belarus: All Options on Table if NATO Refuses to Discuss Security Proposals.” https://sputniknews.com/20211221/russian-mod-on-nukes-in-belarus-all-options-on-table-if-nato-refuses-to-discuss-security-proposals-1091691606.html.
Stefanović, Andrej and Kostić Šulejić, Marina. 2024. “Making a Comprehensive Arms Control Agreement for Europe in Times of Crisis: Rationale, Structure, and Outcomes.” Политика националне безбедности 27 (2): 79-107. DOI: 10.5937/pnb27-51889.
Treshchanin, Dmitry, Tetiana Iarmoshchuk and Robert Coalson. 2018. “The Unsolved Mystery Of Soviet Nukes In Czechoslovakia.“ Radio Free Europe. https://www.rferl.org/a/the-unsolved-mystery-of-soviet-nukes-in-czechoslovakia-/29466252.html.
Von Hlatky, Stéfanie and Émile Lambert-Deslandes. 2024. “The Ukraine War and nuclear sharing in NATO. International Affairs 100 (2): 509–530. DOI: 10.1093/ia/iiae001.
Williams, Nicholas. 2024. “NATO-Russia: Is There a Future?” CERIS-ULB Diplomatic School of Brussels. https://www.ceris.be/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/CERIS-THE-NATO-RUSSIA-FOUNDING-ACT-Nicholas-Williams.pdf.

Извори из архива:

“State Department telegram 6389 to U.S. Embassy United Kingdom, 29 May 1963, Secret.” National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16314-document-19-state-department-telegram-6389-u.
Memcon 1954. “Memorandum of Conversation (Memcon), ‘German Atomic Energy Program,’ 27 October 1954, Confidential.” National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16300-document-01-memorandum-conversation-memcon.
Memcon 1961. “Memorandum of Conversation. Private Conversation between the President and Chancellor Adenauer.” November 21. National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16305-document-07-memorandum-conversation-private.
Memcon 1963b. “Memcon, ‘Non-Dissemination and the MLF,’ 10 October 1963, Secret.” National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16320-document-25-memcon-non-dissemination-and-mlf.
Memcon 1963а. “Memcon, "MLF, Disarmament, 30 May 1963, Secret.” National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16315-document-20-memcon-mlf-disarmament-30-may-1963.
Memcon 1964. “Memcon, ‘Tripartite Discussion of Non-Dissemination,’ 12 May 1964, Secret.” National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16321-document-26-memcon-tripartite-discussion-non.
NSA 2020. “The U.S. Nuclear Presence in Western Europe, 1954-1962, Part II.” National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2020-09-16/us-nuclear-presence-western-europe-1954-1962-part-ii.
Office of the Historian 2024. “The Truman Doctrine, 1947”, https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/truman-doctrine.
UK MoD 1962. “Notes on Talks during the Minister of Defence’s Visit to the United States.” September 19. National Security Archive. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16306-document-08-ministry-defence-notes-talks

Документа:

Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris, France, 27 May, 1997. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_25468.htm.
MFA RF 2024. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence.” https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/.
MID 2021. “Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.“ Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y.
MID 2021. Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees. 2021. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en.
NPT 1970. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MFA RF). 2024. Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/.
TPNW 2021. “Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.” https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n17/209/73/pdf/n1720973.pdf.
Treaty between the Federal Republic of Germany and the French Republic on Franco-German Cooperation and Integration. 2019. https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/19-0232-1900417_en_fin_reinschrift_ws_aa105-og_ck_010219__cle079d7b.pdf
Treaty on the final settlement with respect to Germany. 19990. UN Treaty Collection No. 29226. https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%201696/volume-1696-I-29226-English.pdf.
WH Joint Statement 2021. “U.S.-Russia Presidential Joint Statement on Strategic Stability.” https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/16/u-s-russia-presidential-joint-statement-on-strategic-stability/.
Objavljeno
2025/02/19
Rubrika
Naučni radovi