ДЕМОКРАТСКИ МИР У ОДНОСУ НА РЕГИОНАЛНИ МИР И СТАБИЛНОСТ НА ЗАПАДНОМ БАЛКАНУ
Sažetak
Циљ рада је да се примени теорија демократског мира на контекст регионалног мира и безбедности на западном Балкану, користећи њене унутрашње и спољне компоненте. Због важности регионалне демократизације за регионалну стабилност и позитиван мир, која се тврди на основу теорије, недавно демократско назадовање могло би негативно утицати на њих. Пружамо тестирање и адаптацију познате теорије и њених новијих проширења и новонасталих, кроз упоредну регионалну емпиријску анализу. Након прегледа демократског контекста и анализе регионалних односа, у контексту регионалног приступања ЕУ и номиналне улоге ЕУ као регионалног стабилизатора или демократизатора, испитујемо импликације за регион на основу теоријских увида и очекивања. Утврдили смо да постоји веза између унутрашње демократске праксе и регионалне стабилности, јер су унутрашњи демократски проблеми довели до погоршања билатералне и мултилатералне сарадње, као и до успоравања процеса приступања ЕУ који би требало да допринесе миру у региону. Износимо предлог да регионални мир у много чему зависи од наставка демократизације у свакој регионалној држави, што би допринело свеукупном регионалном смиривању чак и без директног међународног напора у том циљу. Резултати указују да би назадовање демократије имало негативан ефекат на регионални мир и безбедност, и обрнуто, стављајући нормативни нагласак на наставак регионалне демократизације.
Reference
Abazi, Enika. 2021. “Geopolitics in the Western Balkans: Linkages, Leverages and Gatekeepers.” Academicus International Scientific Journal 24 (19): 85–108.
Andjelic, Neven. 2020. “Hybrid Regimes of the Western Balkans: Reflection of a Global Geopolitical Struggle.” Journal of Regional Security 15, no. 2: 263–290.
Albright, Madeleine, et al. 2017. “Liberal Democracy and the Path to Peace and Security.” The Brookings Institution.
Baron, Iris, et al. 2019. “Liberal Pacification and the Phenomenology of Violence.” International Studies Quarterly 63: 199–212.
Bieber, Florian. 2018. “The Rise (and Fall) of Balkan Stabilitocracies”, Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development 10: 176-185.
Bieber, Florian. 2018. “Patterns of Competitive Authoritarianism in the Western Balkans.” East European Politics 34 (3): 337–354.
Bieber, Florian; and Laštro, Čedomir. 2023. “Democratic Patterns and Party Systems in the Western Balkans.” Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft 17: 59–75.
Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group. 2017. “The Crisis of Democracy in the Western Balkans: Authoritarianism and EU Stabilitocracy.” European Fund for the Balkans (EFB) and Centre for the Southeast European Studies of the University of Graz (CSEES).
Baliga, Sandeep, David Lucca, and Tomas Sjostrom. 2009. “Domestic Political Survival and International Conflict: Is Democracy Good for Peace?” Working Paper No. 2009-07, Rutgers University, Department of Economics, New Brunswick, NJ.
Choi, Seung-Whan. 2011. “The Democratic Peace through an Interaction of Domestic Institutions and Norms: Executive Constraints and Rule of Law.” Armed Forces & Society 39, no. 2: 255–283.
Dafoe, Allan, Oneal, John, and Russett, Bruce. 2013. “The Democratic Peace: Weighing the Evidence and Cautious Inference.” International Studies Quarterly 57(1): 201–214.
Dixon, J. William. 1994. “Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 88, no. 1: 14–32.
Doyle, Michael W. 1983. “Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Part 2.” Philosophy & Public Affairs 12, no. 4 (Autumn): 323–353.
EU Serbia Report 2021, Communication on EU Enlargement Policy, 19.10.2021 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-10/Serbia-Report-2021.pdf
EU Serbia Report, 2022. Communication on EU Enlargement Policy, 12.10.2022 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/Serbia%20Report%202022.pdf
EU Serbia Report, 2023 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy 2023, 8.11.2023 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-11/SWD_2023_695_Serbia.pdf
EU Serbia Report, 2024 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy, 2024 , 30.10.2024 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/3c8c2d7f-bff7-44eb-b868-414730cc5902_en?filename=Serbia%20Report%202024.pdf
EU Bosnia and Herzegovina 2021 Report. 2021 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy 19.10.2021.https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-10/Bosnia%20and%20Herzegovina%202021%20report.PDF
EU Bosnia and Herzegovina 2022 Report. 2022 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 12.10.2022.https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/Bosnia%20and%20Herzegovina%20Report%202022.pdf
EU Bosnia and Herzegovina 2023 Report. 2023Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. , 8.11.2023
EU Bosnia and Herzegovina 2024 Report. 2024 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy.
EU Montenegro 2021 Report. 2021 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy 19.10.2021.
EU Montenegro 2022 Report. 2022 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 12.10.2022 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/Montenegro%20Report%202022.pdf
EU Montenegro 2023 Report. 2023 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 8.11.2023 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/e09b27af-427a-440b-a47a-ed5254aec169_en?filename=SWD_2023_694%20Montenegro%20report.pdf
EU Montenegro 2024 Report. 2024 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 30.10.2024 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/a41cf419-5473-4659-a3f3-af4bc8ed243b_en?filename=Montenegro%20Report%202024.pdf
EU North Macedonia 2021 Report. 2021 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy 19.10.2021. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-10/North-Macedonia-Report-2021.pdf
EU North Macedonia 2022 Report. 2022 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 12.10.2022 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/48ba61f0-41ae-4cff-9517-29fac190f4bd_en?filename=North%20Macedonia%20Report%202022.pdf
EU North Macedonia 2023 Report. 2023 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 8.11.2023
https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-11/SWD_2023_693%20North%20Macedonia%20report.pdf
EU North Macedonia 2024 Report. 2024 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 30.10.2024 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/5f0c9185-ce46-46fc-bf44-82318ab47e88_en?filename=North%20Macedonia%20Report%202024.pdf
EU Albania 2021 Report. 2021 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy 19.10.2021. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-10/Albania-Report-2021.pdf
EU Albania 2022 Report. 2022 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 12.10.2022 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/Albania%20Report%202022.pdf
EU Albania 2023 Report. 2023 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 8.11.2023 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-11/SWD_2023_690%20Albania%20report.pdf
EU Albania 2024 Report. 2024 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. 30.10.2024 https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/a8eec3f9-b2ec-4cb1-8748-9058854dbc68_en?filename=Albania%20Report%202024.pdf
EU 2023 Human Rights and Democracy in the World Annual Report - Report of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. 29.5.2024
EU 2024 Annual Report on Human Rights and Democracy in the World. 22.05.2025. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/2024-annual-report-human-rights-and-democracy-world_en
Fjelde, Hanne, Carl Henrik Knutsen, and Havard Mokleiv Nygard. 2021. “Which Institutions Matter? Re-Considering the Democratic Civil Peace.” International Studies Quarterly 65: 223–237.
Galtung, Johan. 1969. “Violence, Peace, and Peace Research.” Journal of Peace Research 6, no. 3: 167–191.
Gafuri, Adea; and Muftuler-Bac, Meltem. 2020. “Caught Between Stability and Democracy in the Western Balkans: A Comparative Analysis of Paths of Accession to the European Union.” East European Politics 37(2), 267–291
Gartzke, Erik, and Alex Weisiger. 2013. “Permanent Friends? Dynamic Difference and the Democratic Peace.” International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 1 (March): 171–185.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 1992. “Democracy and Peace.” Journal of Peace Research 29, no. 4: 369–376.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, and Havard Hegre. 1997. “Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, no. 2: 283–310.
Hegre, Havard, et al. 2001. “Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War.” The American Political Science Review 95, no. 1: 33–48.
Hegre, Havard; Bernhard, Michael; and Teorell, Jan. 2020. “Civil Society and the Democratic Peace.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 64, no. 1: 32–62.
Jones, Zachary, and Yonatan Lupu. 2018. “Is There More Violence in the Middle?” American Journal of Political Science 62, no. 3: 652–667.
Kapidžić, Damir. 2020. “The Rise of Illiberal Politics in Southeast Europe.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 20(4):1-17
Ker-Lindsay, James, et al. 2017. “The National Politics of EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 17 (4): 511-522.
Kmezić, Marko. 2020. “Rule of Law and Democracy in the Western Balkans: Addressing the Gap Between Policies and Practice.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 20, no. 1: 183–198.
Klemenc, Jelka; Hrabálek, Martin; and Đorđević, Vladimir. 2021. “Regional Security Cooperation Revisited: The Western Balkans as the Future Security Provider.” European Security 30 (2): 285–304.
Kulkova, Miroslava. 2019. “From Negative to Positive Peace in Western Balkans: A Case for Eclectic Theory.” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 13, no. 3: 26-47.
Lakić, Danijela. 2024. “Manjkavost liberalnog nacionalizma kao uslova pozitivnog mira na Balkanu.” Srpska politička misao 86, no. 4 (2024): 27–46.
Lavrič, Miran; and Bieber, Florian. 2021. “Shifts in Support for Authoritarianism and Democracy in the Western Balkans.” Problems of Post-Communism 68 (1): 17–26.
Levitin, Oleg and Sanfey Peter. 2018. “Regional Cooperation in the Western Balkans.” The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London.
Maoz, Zeev, and Russett, Bruce. 1993. “Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946–1986.” American Political Science Review 87, no. 3: 624–638.
Mirel, Pierre. 2018. “The Western Balkans: Between Stabilisation and Integration into the European Union.” European Issues No. 459, Foundation Robert Schuman.
Oneal, John R. 2012. “Transforming Regional Security through Liberal Reforms.” In International Relations Theory and Regional Transformation, edited by Paul T.V., 158–180. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Passarelli, Gianluca. 2018. “The Presidentialisation of Political Parties in the Western Balkans.” In The Presidentialisation of Political Parties in the Western Balkans, edited by Gianluca Passarelli. Palgrave Macmillan.
Passarelli, Gianluca. 2022. “The Process of Democratisation, the Political Parties and the Electoral Systems in the Western Balkans (1990–2020).” Political Studies Review 20 (4): 537–549.
Petrović, Milenko and Garth Wilson. 2021. “Bilateral Relations in the Western Balkans as a Challenge for EU Accession.” Journal of Contemporary European Studies 29 (4): 1-18.
Radeljić, Branislav; and Đorđević, Vladimir. 2020. “Clientelism and the Abuse of Power in the Western Balkans.” Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 22(5), 597–612.
Raknerud, Arvid, and Håvard Hegre. 1997. “The Hazard of War: Reassessing the Evidence for the Democratic Peace.” Journal of Peace Research 34, no. 4: 385–404.
Richmond, Oliver P. 2005. “Constructing the Liberal Peace from Below.” In The Transformation of Peace, edited by Oliver P. Richmond, 125–148. Palgrave Macmillan.
Rioux, Jean-Sebastien. 1998. “A Crisis-Based Evaluation of the Democratic Peace Proposition.” Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue canadienne de science politique 31, no. 2: 263–283.
Ross-Smith, Nicholas, Markovic-Khaze, Nina, and Kovacevic, Maja. 2020. “The EU’s Stability-Democracy Dilemma in the Context of the Problematic Accession of the Western Balkan States.” Journal of Contemporary European Studies (2020).
Rummel, Rudolph 1995. “Democracies Are Less Warlike than Other Regimes.” European Journal of International Relations 1, no. 4: 457–479.
Ruggeri, Andrea, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. 2010. “Political Opportunity Structures, Democracy, and Civil War.” Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 3: 299–310.
Russett, Bruce. 1994. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Snyder, Jack, and Edward D. Mansfield. 2008. “Democratization and Civil War.” Occasional Papers of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. Columbia University, 2008.
Trošić-Jelisavac, Sanja; and Arnaudov, Mitko. 2024. “Political Antagonisms, Misaligned Security Policies, and Economic Integration Efforts in the Western Balkans: Present Challenges and Future Perspectives.” In Global Security and International Relations After the Escalation of the Ukrainian Crisis, Article 19, 429–454.
Van Belle, Douglas A. 1997. “Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace.” Journal of Peace Research 34, no. 4: 405–411.
Veri, Francesco, and Jensen Sass. 2023. “The Domestic Democratic Peace: How Democracy Constrains Political Violence.” International Political Science Review 44, no. 5: 676–693.
Vulović, Marina. 2023. “Western Balkan Foreign and Security Ties with External Actors: An Arena of Geostrategic Rivalry for the EU or a Local Power Struggle?” SWP Comment No. 8, German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Sources:
Reporters Without Borders. World Press Freedom Index 2021–2024. Paris: RSF. https://rsf.org
Freedom House. Nations in Transit 2021–2024. Washington, DC: Freedom House.
Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2021–2024.
Coppedge, Michael, et al. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Dataset, Versions 12–15. V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg.
OSCE/ODIHR. Annual Report 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.
Bertelsmann Stiftung. Transformation Index (BTI) 2022–2024: Governance in International Comparison. Gütersloh.
Institute for Economics & Peace. Positive Peace Report 2021-2024. Sydney.
Institute for Economics & Peace. Global Peace Index 2022–2024.
International IDEA. The Global State of Democracy Report 2022–2024. Stockholm.
World Justice Project. Rule of Law Index 2022–2024. Washington, DC.
Economist Intelligence Unit. Democracy Index 2022–2024. London.
