„БАУК ПРЕД НАШИМ ВРАТИМА” - МОЖЕ ЛИ РУСКА ПРЕТЊА ДА УЈЕДИНИ ЕВРОПУ?
Sažetak
Када је француски председник Емануел Макрон на екстравагантан начин упоредио руског лидера Владимира Путина и његову политику са злим митолошким бићем, ,,бауком на прагу Европе”, он је одразио, у бројним европским престоницама уврежену перцепцију агресивне и експанзионистичке Русије која угрожава безбедност читавог континента. Идеја акутне руске претње је постала звезда водиља убрзане милитаризације држава чланица Европске уније (ЕУ) и покушаја унапређења заједничких одбрамбених капацитета. Иницијална каписла таквом развоју био је рат у Украјини, међу заговорницима веће интеграције и аутономије у сектору одбране представљен као потенцијална прекретница за европску безбедност, али и као својеврсни коперникански обрт који ће дуготрајну фантазију о европској стратешкој аутономији, независној од променљивих приоритета Сједињених Америчких Држава, приближити реалности. Циљ овог рада састоји се у преиспитивању претпоставке о оваквој улози рата у Украјини, на два основна начина. Прво, доводи се у питање сама кредибилност идеје о руској претњи која угрожава цео континент. Друго, указује се да деловање Москве, услед различите перцепције претње и дивергентних интереса, не изазива једнаки степен забринутости код свих држава ЕУ. Основна хипотеза рада је да наглашавање руске претње није довољан фактор за успостављање кохезивног и јединственог приступа држава ЕУ питањима одбране и безбедности. Ослањајући се на претпоставке теорије равнотеже претње за разматрање одлука о уравнотежавању и равнотежу интереса да би се осликали дивергентни интереси унутар ЕУ, у раду се указује на изазове са којима се суочава једна заједница суверених држава када треба да се понаша као велика сила у анархичном међународном систему.
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