Komunikacija o rizicima od katastrofa: stavovi građana Srbije

  • Vladimir M. Cvetković Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet bezbednosti, Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd (Srbija) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3450-0658
  • Marko P. Radovanović Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srbije, Beograd (Srbija)
  • Srđan M. Milašinović Kriminalističko-policijski univerzitet, Beograd (Srbija)
Ključne reči: katastrofe, rizici, komunikacija, činioci, inovacije, istraživanje

Sažetak


Predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje stavova građana o različitim činiocima uticaja na sprovođenje efikasne komunikacije o rizicima od katastrofa u Republici Srbiji. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja naučna deskripcija prediktora uspešne komunikacije o rizicima od katastrofa. Korišćenjem onlajn anketnog upitnika, a po principu snežne grudve, sprovedeno je anketiranje 243 ispitanika tokom jula 2021. godine. Rezultati višestruke linearne regresione analize korišćene da se proceni eksplikativna moć šest izabranih varijabli (pol, godine, obrazovanje, bračni status, zaposlenost i visina prihoda) na percepciju komunikacije o rizicima od katastrofa pokazuju da su najznačajniji prediktori informisanosti o rizicima nivo prihoda i pol ispitanika. Dobijeni rezultati su od višestrukog naučnog i praktičnog značaja za unapređenje integrisane komunikacije o rizicima od katastrofa kroz proces poboljšanog razumevanja demografske i socio-ekonomske perspektive komunikacije.

Reference

Alcántara-Ayala, I., & Moreno, A. R. (2016). Landslide risk perception and communication for disaster risk management in mountain areas of developing countries: a Mexican foretaste. Journal of Mountain Science, 13(12), 2079–2093.
Altheide, D. L. (1995). An ecology of communication: Cultural formats of control: Transaction Publishers.
Appleby-Arnold, S., Brockdorff, N., Fallou, L., & Bossu, R. (2019). Truth, trust, and civic duty: Cultural factors in citizens‘ perceptions of mobile phone apps and social media in disasters. Journal of contingencies and crisis management, 27(4), 293–305.
Austin, L., Fisher Liu, B., & Jin, Y. (2012). How audiences seek out crisis information: Exploring the social-mediated crisis communication model. Journal of applied communication research, 40(2), 188–207.
Bier, V. M. (2001). On the state of the art: risk communication to the public. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 71(2), 139–150.
Bouckenooghe, D., Devos, G., & Van den Broeck, H. (2009). Organizational change questionnaire–climate of change, processes, and readiness: Development of a new instrument. The Journal of Psychology, 143(6), 559–599.
Bradley, D. T., McFarland, M., & Clarke, M. (2014). The effectiveness of disaster risk communication: a systematic review of intervention studies. PLoS currents, 6.
Breakwell, G. M. (2000). Risk communication: factors affecting impact. British medical bulletin, 56(1), 110–120.
Breakwell, G. M. (2000). Risk communication: factors affecting impact. British medical bulletin, 56(1), 110–120.
Brynielsson, J., Granåsen, M., Lindquist, S., Narganes Quijano, M., Nilsson, S., & Trnka, J. (2018). Informing crisis alerts using social media: Best practices and proof of concept. Journal of contingencies and crisis management, 26(1), 28–40.
Chakma, U. K., Hossain, A., Islam, K., Hasnat, G. T., & Kabir. (2020). Water crisis and adaptation strategies by tribal community: A case study in Baghaichari Upazila of Rangamati District in Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(2), 37–46.
Couldry, N., & Hepp, A. (2018). The mediated construction of reality: John Wiley & Sons.
Cvetković, V. (2021). Innovative solutions for disaster early warning and alert systems: a literary review. Paper presented at the XI International scientific conference Archibald Reiss days, November 9–10, 2021.Belgrade: University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies.
Cvetković, V. M., Tomašević, K. S., & Milašinović, S. (2019). Security risks of climate change: case study of Belgrade. Sociološki pregled, 53(2), 596–626. DOI: 10.5937/socpreg53-22371
Cvetković, V., & Grbić, L. (2021). Public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. Časopis Geografskog instituta “Jovan Cvijić”, 71(1), 43–58.
Cvetković, V., & Jovanović, M. (2020). Examination of the factors that influence public perception of mythically-based human behaviour in disaster conditions. Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, 100(2), 161–179.
Cvetković, V., Nikolić, N., Nenadić, R. U., Ocal, A., & Zečević, M. (2020). Preparedness and Preventive Behaviours for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17(11), 4124.
Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., & Ivanov, A. (2019). Young adults‘ fear of disasters: A case study of residents from Turkey, Serbia and Macedonia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 35, 101095.
Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., Lyamzina, Y., Noji, E., Nikolić, N., & Milošević, G. (2021). Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Exposure to Radiation vs. Social Benefits. Energies, 14, 2464.
Cvetković, V., Roder, G., Ocal, Adem, Tarolli, P., & Dragićević, S. (2018). The Role of Gender in Preparedness and Response Behaviours towards Flood Risk in Serbia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 15(12), 2761.
Cvetković, V., Tanasić, J., Ocal, A., Nikolić, N., & Dragašević, A. (2021). Capacity Development of Local Self-Governments for Disaster Risk Management. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 18.
Eiser, J. R., Donovan, A., & Sparks, R. S. J. (2015). Risk perceptions and trust following the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash crises. Risk analysis, 35(2), 332–343.
Fakhruddin, B., Clark, H., Robinson, L., & Hieber-Girardet, L. (2020). Should I stay or should I go now? Why risk communication is the critical component in disaster risk reduction. Progress in Disaster Science, 8, 100139.
Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., & Dahe, Q. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Cambridge University Press.
Frewer, L. (2004). The public and effective risk communication. Toxicology letters, 149(1–3), 391-397.
Frewer, L. J., Howard, C., Hedderley, D., & Shepherd, R. (1996). What determines trust in information about food-related risks? Underlying psychological constructs. Risk analysis, 16(4), 473–486.
Gierlach, E., Belsher, B. E., & Beutler, L. E. (2010). Cross‐cultural differences in risk perceptions of disasters. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 30(10), 1539–1549.
Glik, D. C. (2007). Risk communication for public health emergencies. Annu. Rev. Public Health, 28, 33–54.
Gurmankin, A. D., Baron, J., & Armstrong, K. (2004). Intended message versus message received in hypothetical physician risk communications: exploring the gap. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 24(5), 1337–1347.
Hansson, S., Orru, K., Siibak, A., Bäck, A., Krüger, M., Gabel, F., & Morsut, C. (2020). Communication-related vulnerability to disasters: A heuristic framework. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 51, 101931.
Harvey, N., & Twyman, M. (2007). Two-route models of trust in sources of risk communication. London: University College London.
Hendtlass, C. (2008). Risk Communication Workshop Handbook. New Zealand Centre for Advanced Engineering
Hussaini, A. (2020). Environmental Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction at Kaduna International Airport, Kaduna Nigeria. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(1).
Janković, B. (2021). The role of the police in disasters caused by pandemic infectious diseases. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 3(1), 41–50.
Jha, D. (2020). Indicator based assessment of integrated flood vulnerability index for Brunei Darussalam. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(2), 47–70.
Johansson, M. (2017). Experience of data collection in support of the assessment of global progress in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030–A Swedish pilot study. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 24, 144–150.
Kääriäinen, J. T. (2007). Trust in the police in 16 European countries: A multilevel analysis. European journal of criminology, 4(4), 409–435.
Lachlan, K. A., Spence, P. R., Lin, X., Najarian, K., & Del Greco, M. (2016). Social media and crisis management: CERC, search strategies, and Twitter content. Computers in Human Behaviour, 54, 647–652.
Magdalenić, Z. (2010). Toward a sociological understanding of the sustainable development. Sociološki pregled, 44(2), 309–324. DOI: 10.5937/socpreg1002309M
Mano, R., A, K., & Rapaport, C. (2019). Earthquake preparedness: A Social Media Fit perspective to accessing and disseminating earthquake information. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(2), 19–31.
McComas, K. A. (2006). Defining moments in risk communication research: 1996–2005. Journal of health communication, 11(1), 75–91.
McIntyre, J. J., Lachlan, K., & Spence, P. R. (2012). Attending to the future: The role of learning in emergency response. Journal of Emergency Management, 10(1), 41.
Mileti, D. S., Fitzpatrick, C., & Farhar, B. C. (1992). Fostering public preparations for natural hazards: Lessons from the Parkfield earthquake prediction. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 34(3), 16–39.
Mitrović, V. L. (2020). Double Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic. Sociološki pregled, 54(3), 609–626.
Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., & Atman, C. J. (2002). Risk communication: A mental models approach. Cambridge University Press
National Research, C. (1989). Improving risk communication.
Nelson, L. D., Spence, P. R., & Lachlan, K. (2009). Learning from the media in the aftermath of a crisis: Findings from the Minneapolis Bridge collapse. Electronic News 3(4), 176–192.
Ocal, A., Cvetković, V., Baytiyeh, H., Tedim, F., & Zečević, M. (2020). Public reactions to the disaster COVID-19: A comparative study in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 11(1), 1864–1885.
Ogie, R., Rho, J. C., Clarke, R. J., & Moore, A. (2018). Disaster Risk Communication in Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Communities: The Role of Technology. Proceedings (2), 1256. DOI:10.3390/proceedings2191256
Olawuni, P., Olowoporoku, O., & Daramola, O. (2020). Determinants of Residents‘ Participation in Disaster Risk Management in Lagos Metropolis Nigeria. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(2), 1–18.
Otašević, B., Trbojević, J., & Mitrović, D. (2014). Motivation for helping behaviour after the floods in 2014: The role of personality and national identity. Sociološki pregled, 48(4), 485–505. DOI: 10.5937/socpreg1404485O
Perić, J., & Cvetković, V. M. (2019). Demographic, socio-economic and psychological perspective of risk perception from disasters caused by floods: case study Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(2), 31–45.
Perry, R. W., & Lindell, M. (1989). Communicating threat information for volcano hazards. Bad Tidings Communications and Catastrophe Hillsdale: Lawrence Erlbaum and Associates, 62.
Persensky, J., Browde, S., Szabo, A., Peterson, L., Specht, E., & Wight, E. (2004). Effective risk communication: the nuclear regulatory commission‘s guidelines for external risk communication. Washington, DC: United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Rabinovich, A., & Morton, T. A. (2012). Unquestioned answers or unanswered questions: Beliefs about science guide responses to uncertainty in climate change risk communication. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 32(6), 992–1002.
Rowan, K. E. (1991). Goals, obstacles, and strategies in risk communication: A problem‐solving approach to improving communication about risks. Journal of applied communication research, 19(4), 300–329.
Salmon, C. T., Park, H. S., & Wrigley, B. J. (2003). Optimistic bias and perceptions of bioterrorism in Michigan corporate spokespersons. Fall 2001. Journal of health communication, 8(S1), 130-143.
Sansom, G. T., Aarvig, K., Sansom, L., Thompson, C., Fawkes, L., & Katare, A. (2021). Understanding risk communication and willingness to follow emergency recommendations following anthropogenic disasters. Environmental Justice, 14(2), 159–167.
Savage, I. (1993). Demographic influences on risk perceptions. Risk analysis, 13(4), 413–420.
Sellnow, T. L., & Seeger, M. W. (2021). Theorizing crisis communication: John Wiley & Sons.
Shepherd, J., & van Vuuren, K. (2014). The Brisbane flood: CALD gatekeepers‘ risk communication role. Disaster Prevention and Management 23 (4).
Siegrist, M., & Gutscher, H. (2008). Natural hazards and motivation for mitigation behaviour: People cannot predict the affect evoked by a severe flood. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 28(3), 771–778.
Spence, P. R., Lachlan, K. A., & Griffin, D. R. (2007). Crisis communication, race, and natural disasters. Journal of Black Studies, 37(4), 539–554.
Svendsen, E. R., Yamaguchi, I., Tsuda, T., Guimaraes, J. R. D., & Tondel, M. (2016). Risk communication strategies: lessons learned from previous disasters with a focus on the Fukushima radiation accident. Current environmental health reports, 3(4), 348–359.
Tabachnick, B. G., Fidell, L. S., & Ullman, J. B. (2007). Using multivariate statistics (Vol. 5): Pearson Boston, MA.
Twyman, M., Harvey, N., & Harries, C. (2008). Trust in motives, trust in competence: Separate factors determining the effectiveness of risk communication. Judgment and Decision Making, 3(1), 111.
Ulmer, R. R., Sellnow, T. L., & Seeger, M. W. (2017). Effective crisis communication: Moving from crisis to opportunity: Sage Publications.
Van Craen, M., & Skogan, W. G. (2015). Differences and similarities in the explanation of ethnic minority groups‘ trust in the police. European journal of criminology, 12(3), 300–323.
Vibhas, S., Bismark, A. G., Ruiyi, Z., Anwaar, M. A., & Rajib, S. (2019). Understanding the barriers restraining effective operation of flood early warning systems. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(2), 1–19.
Visschers, V. H. M., Wiedemann, P. M., Gutscher, H., Kurzenhäuser, S., Seidl, R., Jardine, C. G., & Timmermans, D. R. M. (2012). Affect-inducing risk communication: current knowledge and future directions. Journal of Risk Research, 15(3), 257–271.
Vos, S. C., Sutton, J., Yu, Y., Renshaw, S. L., Olson, M. K., Gibson, C. B., & Butts, C. T. (2018). Retweeting risk communication: the role of threat and efficacy. Risk analysis, 38(12), 2580–2598.
Wardman, J. K., & Mythen, G. (2016). Risk communication: against the Gods or against all odds? Problems and prospects of accounting for Black Swans. Journal of Risk Research, 19(10), 1220–1230.
Whitmarsh, L. (2009a). Behavioural responses to climate change: Asymmetry of intentions and impacts. Journal of environmental psychology, 29(1), 13–23.
Whitmarsh, L. (2009b). What‘s in a name? Commonalities and differences in public understanding of “climate change” and “global warming”. Public understanding of science, 18(4), 401–420.
Williams, G. C., Lynch, M. F., McGregor, H. A., Ryan, R. M., Sharp, D., & Deci, E. L. (2006). Validation of the” Important Other” Climate Questionnaire: Assessing Autonomy Support for Health-Related Change. Families, Systems, & Health, 24(2), 179.
Wray, R., & Jupka, K. (2004). What does the public want to know in the event of a terrorist attack using plague? Biosecurity and bioterrorism: biodefense strategy, practice, and science, 2(3), 208–215.
Wray, R., Rivers, J., Jupka, K., & Clements, B. (2006). Public perceptions about trust in emergency risk communication: qualitative research findings. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 24(1), 45.
Xuesong, G., & Kapucu, N. (2019). Examining Stakeholder Participation in Social Stability Risk Assessment for Mega Projects using Network Analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 1–31.

Objavljeno
2022/01/15
Broj časopisa
Rubrika
Originalni naučni rad