Model za prognozu trendova u ostvarivanju energetske bezbednosti zemalja i regionalnih kompleksa
Sažetak
U radu je opisan i na primerima primenjen jednostavan, robustan, a opet dovoljno detaljan model koji omogućava brzu i dovoljno tačnu prognozu trendova i njihov mogući uticaj na procese vezane za energetsku i time i globalnu bezbednost. Heuristički model uzima u obzir i različitost u shvatanju energetske paradigme. Bazira se na 4A (Pristupačnost, Prihvatljivost, Dostupnost i Fizički pristup) definiciji energetske bezbednosti i koristi teoriju regionalnih bezbednosnih kompleksa. Razmatra četiri faktora prvog i dvadeset tri faktora drugog nivoa. Kreirani model daje mogućnost uzimanja u obzir faktora koji su teško merljivi, čime se dobija na sveobuhvatnosti prognoze. Model je primenjen na slučajeve EU, Srbije i Kine. Zaključeno je da skup faktora koji deluju u pravcu smanjenja energetske bezbednosti zemalja koje strategijski teže „zelenoj paradigmi” daleko nadmašuje broj onih koji pozitivno deluju. Rezultati upućuju na zaključak da Kina treba da nastavi sa sadašnjom energetskom strategijom. Konkretna primena modela, kroz analizu uticajnih faktora, ukazuje na probleme koji će imati svoje bezbednosne reperkusije. Izdvojeni su faktori na koje treba delovati prioritetno u slučaju da se konkretna situacija želi unaprediti u cilju povećanja i održanja energetske bezbednosti neke zemlje ili regionalnog kompleksa.
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