Dve decenije depopulacije u Srbiji 2002–2022
Sažetak
Osnovna karakteristika kretanja ukupnog stanovništva u Srbiji od početka 21. veka je sve izraženija depopulacija. Razlika u broju rođenih i umrlih se kontinuirano povećava na štetu rođenih, a emigracija tradicionalno nadmašuje imigraciju tokom čitavog analiziranog perioda 2002–2022. godine.
Problem u analizi populacione dinamike u Srbiji je izostanak metodološke usaglašenosti u rezultatima popisa stanovništva, pa je glavni cilj rada metodološko usklađivanje popisnih podataka kako bi se što realnije sagledale populacione promene u periodu poslednja tri popisa 2002, 2011. i 2022. godine.
Ukupno posmatrano, depopulacija u Srbiji je veća za oko 135 hiljada u periodu 2002–2022, ukoliko uradimo korekciju zvanično objavljenih podataka, dok je značaj negativnog migracionog salda u ukupnim populacionim promenama povećan na preko 20%. Smanjenje stanovništva je prisutno u čak 95% naselja u Srbiji.
Reference
Duszczyk, M., Kaczmarczyk, P. (2022). The War in Ukraine and Migration to Poland: Outlook and Challenges. Intereconomics 57, 164–170. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/с10272-022-1053-6.
DZS (2023). The Census of Population, Households and Dwellings in 2021. Republic of Croatia. Zagreb: Državni zavod za statistiku Republike Hrvatske. Available at: https://dzs.gov.hr. [In Croatian]
Eurostat (2023). Population change – Demographic balance and crude rates at national level, Statistical office of the European Union. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser.
Lutz, W., Gailey, N. (2020). Depopulation as a policy challenge in the context of global de- mographic trends. UNDP Serbia.
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., Scherbov, S. (2001). The end of world population growth. Nature, 412(6846), 543–545. https://doi.org/10.1038/35087589
Marinković, I. (2018). Depopulation in southeastern Serbia. In: Lj. Mitrović (ed). The population of south-eastern Serbia: demographic problems of south-eastern Serbia and the prospect of creating the national strategy and policy to increase birth rate (99–106). Niš: Srpska akademija nauka i umetnosti – Ogranak SANU u Nišu; Univerzitet u Nišu – Filozofski fakultet. Available at https://www.ogranaknis.sanu.ac.rs/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/demografija2018cw.pdf. [In Serbian]
Msemburi, W., Karlinsky, A., Knutson, V. et al. (2023). The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature 613, 130–137. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05522-2.
Nikitović, V. (2019). Approaching Regional Depopulation in Serbia. Beograd: Institut druš- tvenih nauka. [In Serbian]
Nikitović, V. (2022). Multifaceted Nature of Depopulation in Serbia – Recent Trends and Prospect. In: National Human Development Report – Serbia 2022: Human Development in Response to Demographic Change, (55–72). Beograd: UNDP Srbija, Beograd.
NSI (2023). Population and housing census 2021 in the Republic of Bulgaria. National Statistical Institute Republic of Bulgaria. https://census2021.bg/
Penev, G. (2021). Demographic summary of Serbia in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Demografija 18, 1–18. DOI: 10.5937/demografija2118002P [In Serbian]
Penev, G., Marinković, I. (2012). First results of the census of population of Serbia 2011 and their comparability with results of prior two censuses. Demografija (9), 45–68. [In Serbian]
Penev, G., Predojević Despić, J. (2019). The Population Change in Serbia in the Post- Yugoslav Period (1991–2017): Significant Demographic Aspects. Sociološki pregled,53 (3), 1183–1216. DOI: 10.5937/socpreg53-21902
Raineri, L., Strazzari, F. (2021). Dissecting the EU response to the ‘migration crisis’. In: The EU and crisis response. Manchester, England: Manchester University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7765/9781526148346.00015
RZS (2020). Estimation of external migrations and corrections to the preparation of population estimates. Presentation of project results. Beograd: Republički zavod za statistiku. [In Serbian]
Spasovski, M., Ilić, J. (1989). Problems of demographic development and depopulation of rural areas in Serbia. Zbornik radova XXXVI. Beograd: Geografski fakultet. [In Serbian]
Stanković, V. (2006). General and methodological information about the Census, In: G. Penev (ed.), Population and households of Serbia Census 2002. Beograd: RZS – CDI, IDN – DDS. [In Serbian]
UN (2022). United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. UN DESA/POP/2022/ TR/NO. 3. Available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org. development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf.