Veštačka inteligencija u politici velikih sila: moguće posledice po civilnu kontrolu vojske

Dušan Spasojević

doi:10.5937/socpreg59-55295

Dušan S. Spasojević Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet bezbednosti, Beograd (Srbija) https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6525-4839

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/socpreg59-55295

Ključne reči: veštačka inteligencija, međunarodni odnosi, bezbednost, politika odbrane, civilno-vojni odnosi

Sažetak

Veštačka inteligencija danas protkiva sve pore društvenog života, uključujući međunarodne odnose i bezbednost, gde pažnju stručne javnosti prevashodno zaokuplja u kontekstu oružanih sukoba i rivalstva velikih sila. U naučnim istraživanjima do sada nisu dovoljno razmatrane posledice njene upotrebe na civilno-vojne odnose, iako je reč o ključnoj institucionalnoj komponenti politike odbrane i važnom aspektu nacionalne bezbednosti. Ova studija kvalitativnom analizom dostupnih podataka prati proces međusobnog dejstva inherentnih svojstava veštačke inteligencije i politike velikih sila, i testiranjem postojećih teorija ispituje: zašto velike sile nekritički stavljaju veštačku inteligenciju u funkciju bezbednosti i kako će se to odraziti na civilno-vojne odnose? Takođe, u radu se, posledično već iznetom istraživačkom pitanju, analiziraju neke od novih bezbednosnih dilema poput one na relaciji: vojna bezbednost društva okrenuta ka spolja – unutrašnje vrednosti, ideologije i institucije. Kratki istorijski kontekst fenomena i njegova definiciona određenost se i na ovom primeru legitimišu kao neophodni u kreiranju akademske zaokruženosti rada.

Reference

Allen, G., Chan, T. (2017, July). Artificial Intelligence and National Security. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. Available at: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/artificial-intelligence-and-national-security

Associated Press (2024, May 4). An AI-controlled fighter jet took the Air Force leader for a historic ride. What that means for war. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-fighter-jets-air-force-6a1100c96a73ca9b7f41cbd6a2753fda#

Avramov, S., Kreća, M. (1993). International Public Law, thirteenth edition. Beograd: Zavod za udžbenike i nastavna sredstva. [In Serbian]

Brooks, R. А. (2018, April 27). The Origins of “Artificial Intelligence”. Available at: https://rodneybrooks.com/forai-the-origins-of-artificial-intelligence/

Clark, B., Patt, D., Schramm, H. (2020, February 11). Mosaic Warfare: Exploiting Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems to Implement Decision-Centric Operations. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Available at: https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/mosaic-warfare-exploiting-artificial-intelligence-and-autonomous-systems-to-implement-decision-centric-operations/publication/1

Clausewitz, C. von (2007). On War. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

CNN (2024, February 14). AI could disrupt the election. Congress is running out of time to respond. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/14/tech/ai-bill-us-presidential-election/index.html

Congressional Research Service (2019, January). Artificial Intelligence and National Security.

The Economist (2024, August 25). Is Xi Jinping an AI doomer?: China’s elite is split over artificial intelligence. Available at: https://www.economist.com/china/2024/08/25/is-xi-jinping-an-ai-doomer

Federal Register (2019, February 14). Executive Order 13859 of February 11, 2019, Maintaining American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence. Available at: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/02/14/2019-02544/maintaining-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence

Garten, W. J. R., Dean, F. A. (1982). The Evolution of the Talos Missile. Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory Technical Digest, 3 (2), 117-122.

Huntington, S. P. (1957). The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.

Huntington, S. P. (ed.) (1962). Changing Patterns of Military Politics. New York: The Free Press of Glencoe.

Imura, T. (2024, July 31). Unmanned Maritime Systems and Warships: Interpretations under the Law of the Sea. Center for International Maritime Security. Available at: https://cimsec.org/unmanned-maritime-systems-and-warships-interpretations-under-the-law-of-the-sea/

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) (2018). Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Defence. The Military Balance, Chapter 1, Part 2. London: IISS.

Kissinger, H. A., Schmidt, E., Huttenlocher, D. (2024). The Age of AI: And our Human Future. London: John Murray.

Kovačević, A. (2023). Machine learning and cyber security, 158-173. In: B. Banović and N. Stekić (eds.), Proceedings of the conference Strategic and normative framework of the Republic of Serbia for responding to modern security risks. Beograd: University of Belgrade - Faculty of Security Studies. [In Serbian]

Kovačević, A., Demić, E. (2023). Artificial Intelligence for Detecting Fake News on Social Media - Attitude Survey. Međunarodniproblemi, 75 (4), 685-710. [In Serbian]

Lasswell, H. D. (1937). Sino-Japanese Crisis: The Garrison State versus the Civilian State. China Quarterly, 11, 643-649.

Lasswell, H. D. (1941, Jan.). The Garrison State. American Journal of Sociology, 46 (4), 455-468.

Lasswell, H. D. (1962). The Garrison State Hypothesis Today. In: Huntington, Samuel P (ed.). ChangingPatterns of Military Politics, 51-70. New York: The Free Press of Glencoe.

Lasswell, H. D. (1997). Essays on the Garrison State. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.

Mayor, A. (2018). Gods and Robots: Myths, Machines, and Ancient Dreams of Technology. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

McCarthy, J., Minsky, M., Rochester, N. and Shannon, C. E. (2006). Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence. AIMagazine, 27 (4), 12-14.

Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990, Summer). Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War. International Security, 15 (1), 5-56.

Mearsheimer, J. J. (1994-1995, Winter). The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security, 19 (3), 5-49.

Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton.

Le Monde (2024, April 5). Israeli army uses AI to identify tens of thousands of targets in Gaza. Available at: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/05/israeli-army-uses-ai-to-identify-tens-of-thousands-of-targets-in-gaza_6667454_4.html

National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2021-2025. (NAIS) (2021, August). Available at: https:// cbddo.gov.tr/SharedFolderServer/Genel/File/TRNationalAIStrategy2021-2025.pdf

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (2021, March 1). Final Report. Available at: https://reports.nscai.gov/final-report/

New York Times (2024, July 25). China Is Closing the A.I. Gap with the United States. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/china-open-source-ai.html

Powers, N. (2002). Magic, Wonder and Scientific Explanation in Apollonius, Argonautica 4.1638-93. Proceedings of the Cambridge Philological Society, 48, 87-101.

President of Russia (2019, October 10). Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 10. 10. 2019. No. 490 On the development of artificial intelligence in the Russian Federation. Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/44731 [In Russian]

President of Russia (2024, February 9). Events, Interview with Tucker Carlson. Available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411 [In Russian]

Putnik, N. (2022). Cyber War and Cyber Peace. Beograd: Akademska misao, Innovation Centre of the Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade. [In Serbian]

Reuters (2013, February 27). Researchers say Stuxnet was deployed against Iran in 2007. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/technology/researchers-say-stuxnet-was-deployed-against-iran-in-2007-idUSBRE91P0PP/

Reuters (2015, May 29). Exclusive: U.S. tried Stuxnet-style campaign against North Korea but failed - sources. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/world/exclusive-us--tried-stuxnet-style-campaign-against-north-korea-but-failed-so-idUSKBN0OE2DM/

Reuters (2017, July 5). Ukraine scrambles to contain new cyber threat after ‘NotPetya’ attack. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/world/ukraine-scrambles-to-contain--new-cyber-threat-after-notpetya-attack-idUSKBN19Q14I/

Reuters (2018, February 18). White House blames Russia for ‘reckless’ NotPetya cyber attack. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/technology/white-house-blames--russia-for-reckless-notpetya-cyber-attack-idUSKCN1FZ0PR/

Reuters (2024, February 9). What did Putin say on war and peace, WW3 and AI?. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-did-putin-say-war-peace-ww-3-ai-2024-02-09/

Robinson, E. D. (1982). The Talos Ship System. Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory Technical Digest, 3 (2), 162-166.

Roper, W. (2020, December 16). Exclusive: AI Just Controlled a Military Plane for the First Time Ever. Popular Mechanics. Available at: https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a34978872/artificial-intelligence-controls-u2-spy-plane-air-force-exclusive/

Rubin, C. T. (2019, Fall). The Ancients’ Tech Anxiety. The New Atlantis, 60, 80-86. Schneier, B. (2021, April). The Coming AI Hackers. Paper. Available at: https://www.schneier.com/academic/archives/2021/04/the-coming-ai-hackers.html

Schneier, B. (2024, May 28). How AI Will Change Democracy. Available at: https://www.

schneier.com/essays/archives/2024/05/how-ai-will-change-democracy.html Snyder, G. H. (2002). Mearsheimer’s World: Offensive Realism and the Struggle for Security. International Security, 27 (1), 149-173.

Spathari, E. (2010). Greek Mythology: Cosmogony, Gods - Heroes and their worship, Trojan War, Odyssey. Athens: Papadimas Publishing. [In Greek]

State Council of China (2017, July 20). Notice on the Development Plan of the New Generation of Artificial Intelligence (Guofa [2017] No. 35). Available at: https://www. gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-07/20/content_5211996.htm Turing, A. M. (1950). Computing Machinery and Intelligence. Mind, 59 (236), 433-460. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). (1982).

United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR). (2018, March 28). The Weaponization of Increasingly Autonomous Technologies: Artificial Intelligence (A Primer for CCW Delegates). Available at: https://unidir.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/the-weaponization-of-increasingly-autonomous-technologies-artificial-intelligence-en-700.pdf

United Nations (2024, November 6). Fourteen New Drafts, Including on Implications of Artificial Intelligence in Military Domain, Approved in First Committee by 34 Votes. Available at: https://press.un.org/en/2024/gadis3757.doc.htm

Voice of America (2024, May 7). AI sharpens political targeting in US presidential race. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/a/ai-sharpens-political-targeting-in-us-presidential-race-/7601973.html

Zirojević, I. Z. (2024). Use of artificial intelligence in contemporary armed conflicts. Vojno delo, 1, January-March, 73-90. [In Serbian]