The Tourism on Latin America and Caribbean: a Panel Var Evidence
Sažetak
O aumento do fenômeno da globalização no final do século XX foi vital para a indústria do turismo. A indústria do turismo é comumente entendida como essencial para várias economias. Neste estudo, por meio de um Painel Vector Autoregressivo composto por 26 países da América Latina e do Caribe, houve uma relação entre a decomposição do Índice de Globalização KOF (social, econômico e político), Produto Interno Bruto e Produto Interno Bruto do turismo, investimento público, taxa de câmbio e população. O horizonte temporal da análise empírica compreende informações anuais de 1995 a 2015. Os resultados mostram a existência de uma relação bidirecional entre a globalização social e o investimento público. As evidências mostram a existência de outros resultados importantes: Produto Interno Bruto e Produto Interno Bruto do turismo; Produto Interno Bruto do turismo e investimento público; Produto Interno Bruto e investimento público. Os resultados empíricos contribuem para as discussões sobre turismo na América Latina e no Caribe, fornecendo uma base teórica que contribui para a tomada de decisão de agentes públicos e privados.
Reference
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Croes, R.; Ridderstaat, J.; Van Niekerk, M. (2018): Connecting quality of life, tourism specialization, and economic growth in small island destinations: The case of Malta. Tourism Management, 65, 212-223.
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Kurmanaliyeva; Rysbekova, S.; Duissenbayeva, A.; Izmailov, I. (2014). Religious Tourism as a Sociocultural Phenomenon of the Present “The Unique Sense Today is a Universal Value Tomorrow. This is the Way Religions are Created and Values are Made.”. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences. Vol. 143, 958-963.
Lee, C. C.; Chang, C. P. (2008): Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180-192.
Lin, B.; Zhu, J. (2017): Energy and carbon intensity in China during the urbanization and industrialization process: A panel VAR approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 168, 780-790.
Liu, A.; Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404-417.
Lorde, T.; Francis, B.; Drakes, L. (2011): Tourism Services Exports and Economic Growth in Barbados. The International Trade Journal, 25(2), 205-232.
Massardi, W. O.; Braga, A. J.; Ciribelli, J. P.; Baia, J. W. (2016). Influência do Ciclo Político na Arrecadação da Contribuição de Melhoria. Revista Pretexto, 17(3), 75-89.
Mendola, D.; Volo, S. (2017): Building composite indicators in tourism studies: Measurements and applications in tourism destination competitiveness. Tourism Management, 59, 541-553.
Neves, S. A.; Marques, A. C.; Fuinhas, J. A. (2018): Could alternative energy sources in the transport sector decarbonise the economy without compromising economic growth? Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-18.
Oh, C. O. (2005): The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management, 26(1), 39-44.
Payne, J. E.; Mervar, A. (2010): Research Note: The Tourism–Growth Nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1089-1094.
Ritchie, J. R. B.; Crouch, G. I. (2005): The competitive destination: A sustainable tourism perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rivera, M. A. (2017): The synergies between human development, economic growth, and tourism within a developing country: An empirical model for ecuador. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 6, 221-323.
Schubert, F. S.; Brida, J. G.; Risso, W. A. (2011): The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism. Tourism Management, 32(2), 377-385.
Shahzad, S. J. H., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Tourism Management, 60, 223-232.
Singer, P. (2009). Latin America in the global crisis. Estudos Avançados, 23(66), 91-102.
Tugcu, C. (2014): Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212.
UNWTO (2018). 2017 International Tourism Results: the highest in seven years. PR No.: 18003. Vol. 16. http://media.unwto.org/press-release/2018-01-15/2017-international-tourism-results-highest-seven-years.
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WTTC (2016). WTTC - World Travel and Tourism Council data gateway. Available in: http://www.wttc. org/datagateway/. Accessed in: 23/08/2018.
Amaghionyeodiwe, L. A. (2012): A causality analysis of tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Jamaica. Tourism Economics, 18(5), 1125-1133.
Andrades, L.; Dimanche, F. (2017): Destination competitiveness and tourism development in Russia: Issues and challenges. Tourism Management, 62, 360-376.
Apergis, N.; Payne, J. E. (2012): Tourism and growth in the Caribbean — evidence from a panel error correction model. Tourism Economics, 18(4), 449-456.
Aslan, A. (2014): Tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: evidence from panel Granger causality tests. Current Issues in Tourism, 17, 363-372.
Aydin, O. (2016): Tourism Income of Turkey: A Panel Data Approach. Procedia economics and finance, 38, 245-256.
Balaguer, J.; Cantavella-Jordà, M. (2002): Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: The Spanish case. Applied Economics, 34, 877-884.
Brana, S.; Djigbenou, M. L.; Prat, S. (2012): Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: A PVAR approach. Emerging Markets Review, 13(3), 256-267.
Brida, J. G., Punzo, L. F.; Risso, W. A. (2011a): Research Note: Tourism as a Factor of Growth – the Case of Brazil. Tourism Economics, 17(6), 1375-1386.
Brida, J. G.; Lanzilotta, B.; Risso, W. A. (2008a): Turismo y crecimiento económico: el caso de Uruguay. PASOS: Revista de Turismo Y Patrimonio Cultural, 6(3), 481-492.
Brida, J. G.; Monterubbianese, P. D.; Zapata-Aguirre, S. (2011b): Impactos del turismosobre el crecimientoeconómico y el desarrollo. El caso de los principalesdestinosturísticos de Colombia. PASOS: Revista de Turismo Y Patrimonio Cultural, 9(2), 291-303.
Brida, J. G.; Risso, W. A. (2009): Tourism as a factor of long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis for Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178-185.
Brida, J. G.; Risso, W. A.; Sanchez, E. J. (2008b): Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth. Economics Bulletin, 1-8.
Chulaphan, W., Barahona, J. F. (2017): Contribution of disaggregated tourism on Thailand's economic growth. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences. In press.
Croes, R.; Vanegas, M. (2008): Cointegration and causality between tourism and poverty reduction. Journal of Travel Research, 47, 94-103.
Crouch, G. I.; Ritchie, J. R. B. (1999): Tourism, competitiveness, and societal prosperity. Journal of Business Research, 44(3), 137-152.
Croes, R.; Ridderstaat, J.; Van Niekerk, M. (2018): Connecting quality of life, tourism specialization, and economic growth in small island destinations: The case of Malta. Tourism Management, 65, 212-223.
Demiröz, D. M.; Ongan, S. (2005): The Contribution of Tourism to the Long-Run Turkish Economic Growth. Ekonomický časopis, 53(9), 880-894.
Dogru, T.; Bulut, U. (2017): Is tourism an engine for economic recovery? Theory and empirical evidence. Tourism Management.
Dritsakis, N. (2004): Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10 (3), 305-316.
Dwyer, L.; Kim, C. (2003): Destination competitiveness: determinants and indicators. Current Issues of Tourism, 6(5), 369-414.
Dwyer, L.; Mellor, R.; Livaic, Z.; Edwards, D.; Kim, C. (2004): Attributes of destination competitiveness: a factor analysis. Tourism Analysis, 9(1-2), 91-101.
Gomezelj, D. O.; Mihalic, T. (2008): Destination competitiveness e applying different models, the case of Slovenia. Tourism Management, 29(2), 294-307.
Gunduz, L.; Hatemi-J, A. (2005): Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12, 499-504.
Gygli, S., Haelg, F., & Sturm, J. E. (2018). The KOF Globalisation Index–Revisited. KOF Working Papers, 439. doi. 10.3929/ethz-b-000238666.
ICCA (2017) ICCA announces all-time record number of association meetings in 2016. Available in: https://www.iccaworld.org/newsarchives/archivedetails.cfm?id=6607. Acessed in: 09/05/2018.
Jawadi, F.; Mallick, S. K.; Sousa, R. M. (2016): Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICS: A panel VAR approach. Economic Modelling, 58, 535-542. doi.
Katircioglu, S. T. (2009): Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30, 17-20.
Koengkan, M.; Fuinhas, J. A.; Marques, A. C. (2017): O impacto da produção de energia eólica no mercado de trabalho: Uma abordagem pvar. Revista de Estudos Sociais, 19(38), 36-49.
Kouame, A., & Reyes, M. I. (2011). The Caribbean Region beyond the 2008-09 global financial crisis. In: documento presentado en la conferencia “Options for the Caribbean after the Global Financial Crisis”, Bridgetown (pp. 1-41).
Kurmanaliyeva; Rysbekova, S.; Duissenbayeva, A.; Izmailov, I. (2014). Religious Tourism as a Sociocultural Phenomenon of the Present “The Unique Sense Today is a Universal Value Tomorrow. This is the Way Religions are Created and Values are Made.”. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences. Vol. 143, 958-963.
Lee, C. C.; Chang, C. P. (2008): Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180-192.
Lin, B.; Zhu, J. (2017): Energy and carbon intensity in China during the urbanization and industrialization process: A panel VAR approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 168, 780-790.
Liu, A.; Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404-417.
Lorde, T.; Francis, B.; Drakes, L. (2011): Tourism Services Exports and Economic Growth in Barbados. The International Trade Journal, 25(2), 205-232.
Massardi, W. O.; Braga, A. J.; Ciribelli, J. P.; Baia, J. W. (2016). Influência do Ciclo Político na Arrecadação da Contribuição de Melhoria. Revista Pretexto, 17(3), 75-89.
Mendola, D.; Volo, S. (2017): Building composite indicators in tourism studies: Measurements and applications in tourism destination competitiveness. Tourism Management, 59, 541-553.
Neves, S. A.; Marques, A. C.; Fuinhas, J. A. (2018): Could alternative energy sources in the transport sector decarbonise the economy without compromising economic growth? Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-18.
Oh, C. O. (2005): The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management, 26(1), 39-44.
Payne, J. E.; Mervar, A. (2010): Research Note: The Tourism–Growth Nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1089-1094.
Ritchie, J. R. B.; Crouch, G. I. (2005): The competitive destination: A sustainable tourism perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rivera, M. A. (2017): The synergies between human development, economic growth, and tourism within a developing country: An empirical model for ecuador. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 6, 221-323.
Schubert, F. S.; Brida, J. G.; Risso, W. A. (2011): The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism. Tourism Management, 32(2), 377-385.
Shahzad, S. J. H., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Tourism Management, 60, 223-232.
Singer, P. (2009). Latin America in the global crisis. Estudos Avançados, 23(66), 91-102.
Tugcu, C. (2014): Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212.
UNWTO (2018). 2017 International Tourism Results: the highest in seven years. PR No.: 18003. Vol. 16. http://media.unwto.org/press-release/2018-01-15/2017-international-tourism-results-highest-seven-years.
World Economic Forum (2017). Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017. Available in: http://ev.am/sites/default/files/WEF_TTCR_2017.pdf. Accessed in: 22/05/2018. ISBN-13: 978-1-944835-08-8.
WTTC (2016). WTTC - World Travel and Tourism Council data gateway. Available in: http://www.wttc. org/datagateway/. Accessed in: 23/08/2018.
