Uticaj stranih direktnih investicija na nezaposlenost u tranzicionim zemljama: kointegraciona analiza panela
Sažetak
U ovom radu je analiziran odnos između priliva stranih direktnih investicija per capita i stopa nezaposlenosti u 17 tranzicionih zemalja za period 2000-2014. Cilj rada predstavlja testiranje pretpostavke, često isticane od strane kreatora ekonomskih politika, da privlačenje stranih direktnih investicija neminovno dovodi do smanjenja nezaposlenosti. Doprinos empirijske analize postojećoj literaturi se ogleda u primeni kointegracione analize panela u cilju testiranja i ocenjivanja dugoročnog uticaja SDI na nezaposlenost, umesto standardne analize panela koja ispituje kratkoročne efekte. Rezultati primenjenih panel kointegracionih testova nisu jednoznačni, dok rezultati ocenjivanja potpuno modifikovanom i dinamičkom metodom najmanjih kvadrata sugerišu da SDI i nezaposlenost verovatno nisu kointegrisane. Neusaglašenost empirijskih rezultata ide u prilog opštem zaključku da je dugoročni uticaj SDI na nezaposlenost u tranzicionim zemljama ili veoma slab ili opšte ne postoji.
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