Uticaj valutnog rizika na javni dug u Srbiji: stanje i evropska iskustva
Sažetak
Valutni rizik i njegov uticaj na kretanje javnog duga dobija sve više na značaju u ekonomskim analizama naročito u visoko dolarizovanim zemljama poput Srbije. Cilj rada je analiza valutne strukture javnog duga Srbije i rizici koje ona nosi te uz predstavljanje međunarodnih iskustava davanje preporuka za unapređenje upravljanja javnim dugom. U radu je analizirana valutna struktura javnog duga Srbije u periodu od 2004. do 2016. godine, zatim uporedni pokazatelji dolarizacije Srbije i odabranih zemalja regiona, kao i kretanje valutnog rizika u istim. Valutnu strukturu javnog duga Srbije karakteriše veliki udeo tri valute – dinara, dolara i evra. Srbija je najviše evroizovana zemlja u regionu uporedo sa upadljivo najvećim učešćem dolarskog duga u ukupnom javnom dugu. Time je usled valutne neusklađenosti javni dug Srbije izložen visokom valutnom riziku. Na osnovu predstavljanja uspešnih primera upravljanja javnim dugom u Mađarskoj i Poljskoj, kao zemljama sa niskim stepenom dolarizacije, na kraju rada date su preporuke za unapređenje sistema upravljanja javnim dugom u Srbiji.
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