Globalizacija i metodologija istraživanja međunarodne trgovine
Sažetak
Intenzivna globalizacija proizvodnje krajem XX i početkom XXI veka dovela je do značajne distorzije statističkih podataka o obimu međunarodne trgovine. Primena ovih podataka u kvantitativnim istraživanjima ne daje pouzdane informacije u pogledu razvojnog potencijala određenog izvoznog pravca (orijentacije) ili proizvoda. Radi korekcije ovih podataka, pre njihove primene u poznatim ekonometrijskim modelima, predložen je specifičan metodološki postupak On uključuje standardne postupke za razgraničavanje inter-industrijske i intra-industrijske trgovine, a potom razdvajanje horizontalne i vertikalne u okviru intra-industrijske razmene. U poslednjem koraku, na osnovu utvrđivanja nelogičnosti između izvozne cene i smera trgovine između razvijenih i nerazvijenih privreda, izdvaja se sporna vrednost izvoza, koja je rezultat višestrukog prelaska granice istih proizvoda. Tako dobijena korigovana vrednost statističkih podataka može se dalje uspešno primenjivati u postojećim ekonometrijskim modelima. Metodološki postupak je primenjen na odabrane izvozne grupe proizvoda Srbije i nekoliko njenih ključnih izvoznih zemalja partnera. Rezultati pokazuju da je statistička vrednost izvoza 10% do 40% veća od realne za analizirane proizvode.
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