Monetatna politika i nezaposlenost u Republici srbiji
Ključne reči:
Monetarna politika, referentna kamatna stopa, inflacija, nezaposlenost, VECM
Sažetak
Glavni cilj sprovođenja istraživanja je utvrditi da li monetarna politika može uticati na nezaposlenost putem glavnog instrumenta monetarne politike, referentne kamatne stope, kao i analizirati povezanost između inflacije i nezaposlenosti u Republici Srbiji, s obzirom na to da su spomenute pojave glavni destabilizatori ekonomije u razvoju. Centralni model kojim se ispituje struktura vremenskih serija predstavlja Vektorski model korekcije grešaka (VECM). Prema rezultatima koji proizilaze iz kointegracione jednačine VEC modela, može se zaključiti da ne postoji dugoročna dinamika ravnoteže između referentne kamatne stope i stope nezaposlenosti u Republici Srbiji, u periodu od januara 2009. godine do juna 2019. godine. Istražujući odnos između inflacije i nezaposlenosti, rezultati upućuju na pozitivan statistički značajan uticaj stope inflacije na stopu nezaposlenosti u posmatranom periodu. Kratkokorčna perspektiva istaživanja ukazuje da promene u stopi nezaposlenosti nisu bile uzrokovane promenama referentne kamatne stope, kao ni promenama stope inflacije.
Reference
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Pandit, B. L. (2015). The Global Financial Crisis and the Indian Economy. doi:10.1007/978-81-322-2395-5_5
Peersman, G., & Smets, F. (2001). The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis (ECB Working Paper No.91). Retrieved from European Central Bank website: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp091.pdf
Ribba, A. (2006). The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980. Empirical Economics, 31(2), 497-511. doi:10.1007/s00181-005-0031-8
Sasongko, G., & Huruta, A. (2019). The causality between inflation and unemployment: the Indonesian evidence. Business: Theory and Practice, 20, 1–10. doi:10.3846/btp.2019.01
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Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2019). Labour Force Survey from 2014. Retrieved from https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US
Stojanović, D., & Stojanović, D. (2017). Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Serbia: evidence from the fully-fledged inflation targeting regime. Post-Communist Economies, 29(1), 117-137. doi:10.1080/14631377.2016.1238083
Touny, M. A. (2013). Investigate the Long-Run Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(7), 115–125. doi:10.5539/ijef.v5n7p115
Baltagi, B. H. (2011). Econometrics (5th ed.). doi:10.1007/978-3-642-20059-5_14
Bartles, B. (2009). The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: A VAR-analysis for Austria and Germany (Working paper No.452). Retrieved from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) website: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/search/?q=The+monetary+transmission+mechanism+in+the+euro+area%3A+A+VAR-analysis+for+Austria+and+Germany
Benazić, M., & Rami, J. (2016). Monetary policy and unemployment in Croatia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 29(1), 1038–1049. doi:10.1080/1331677x.2016.1211955
Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (2nd ed.). Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313899363_Introductory_Econometric_For_Finance
Bungin, S., Reljic, M., & Ivkovic, B. (2015). Estimation of transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Serbia. Industrija, 43(3), 143–158. doi:10.5937/industrija43-9076
Cioran, Z. (2014). Monetary policy, inflation and the causal relation between the inflation rate and some of the macroeconomic variables. Procedia Economics and Finance, 16, 391-401. doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00818-1
Đorđević, M., & Lojanica, N. (2015). Kontroverze o statistički značajnoj povezanosti inflacije i ekonomskog rasta: Primer Republike Srbije. In V. Lekovic (Ed.): Institucionalne promene kao determinanta privrednog razvoja Srbije (pp.149-164). Kragujevac: Ekonomski fakultet Univerzitet u Kragujevcu. Retrieved from http://www.ekfak.kg.ac.rs/sr/nir/nir-naucni-skupovi/naucni-skup-instit-promene
Fetai, B., & Izet, Z. (2010). The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate regime on real GDP and prices in the Republic of Macedonia. Economic and Business Review, 12(4), 263–284. Retrieved from http://ojs.ebrjournal.net/ojs/index.php/ebr/article/view/103
Furtula, S., & Kostić, M. (2017). Key Policy Rate as the Main or Additional Instrument of Inflation Targeting Strategy in Serbia. Economic Themes, 55(2), 143–159. doi:10.1515/ethemes-2017-0009
Furtula, S., Durkalić, D., & Simionescu, M. (2018). Testing Phillips Curve For Serbian And Romanian Economy. Romanian Statistical Review, 3, 40–56. Retrieved from http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/RRS-3_2018_A4.pdf
Holden, D., & Perman, R. (1994). Unit Roots and Cointegration for the Economist. In B. B. Rao (Ed.), Cointegration (pp. 47-112). London, United Kingdom: Palgrave Macmillan. doi:10.1007/978-1-349-23529-2_3
Jevdjovic, G. (2014). Investigating the efficiency of monetary transmission channels in Serbia. Industrija, 42(2), 169–187. doi:10.5937/industrija42-6099
Josifidis, K., Allegret, J.-P., & Beker-Pucar, E. (2009). Monetary and exchange rate regimes changes: The cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia. Panoeconomicus, 56(2), 199–226. doi:10.2298/pan0902199j
Levendis, J. D. (2018). Time Series Econometrics. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-98282-3_12
Lojanica, N. (2018). Macroeconomic effects of monetary transmission in Serbia: SVAR approach. Bankarstvo, 47(1), 14–31. doi:10.5937/bankarstvo1801014l
Lucas, R. E., & Sargent, T.J. (1979). After Keynesian Macroeconomics. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 3(2), 295-319. Retrieved from https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/quarterly-review/after-keynesian-macroeconomics
Marjanović, G. (2010). Uticaj ekonomske krize na glavni tok ekonomske misli. Ekonomski horizonti, 12(2), 5-20. Retrived from http://horizonti.ekfak.kg.ac.rs/sites/default/files/Casopis/2010_2/1_Gordana_Marjanovic.pdf
Mihajlović, V. (2018). Implikacije novog konsenzusa u makroekonomskoj teoriji za ekonomsku politiku u Republici Srbiji. In: Ivanović, V., Nikolić, J., Jovković, B., Zlatanović, D., Kalinić, Z., Janković, N. (Eds.): Implikacije ekonomije znanja za razvojne procese u Republici Srbiji (pp.263-275). Kragujevac: Ekonomski fakultet Univerzitet u Kragujevcu. Retrived from http://www.ekfak.kg.ac.rs/images/Nir/ProjekatFakulteta/Zbornik2018-Implikacije_ekonomije_znanja_za_razvojne_procese_u_Republici_Srbiji.pdf
Mishkin, F. S. (2011). Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis (NBER Working Paper No.16755). Retrieved from National Bureau of Economic Research website: https://www.nber.org/papers/w16755
National Bank of Serbia (2019). Monetary Policy Strategy and Objectives. Retrieved from https://www.nbs.rs/internet/english/30/30_3/index.html
National Bank of Serbia (2019). NBS Interest rates. Retrieved from https://www.nbs.rs/internet/english/80/index.html#i3
National Bank of Serbia (2019). Inflation report - Archive. Retrieved from https://www.nbs.rs/internet/english/90/ioi_arhiva.html
Pandit, B. L. (2015). The Global Financial Crisis and the Indian Economy. doi:10.1007/978-81-322-2395-5_5
Peersman, G., & Smets, F. (2001). The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis (ECB Working Paper No.91). Retrieved from European Central Bank website: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp091.pdf
Ribba, A. (2006). The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980. Empirical Economics, 31(2), 497-511. doi:10.1007/s00181-005-0031-8
Sasongko, G., & Huruta, A. (2019). The causality between inflation and unemployment: the Indonesian evidence. Business: Theory and Practice, 20, 1–10. doi:10.3846/btp.2019.01
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2019). Labour Force Survey 2008-2014. Retrieved from https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2019). Labour Force Survey from 2014. Retrieved from https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US
Stojanović, D., & Stojanović, D. (2017). Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Serbia: evidence from the fully-fledged inflation targeting regime. Post-Communist Economies, 29(1), 117-137. doi:10.1080/14631377.2016.1238083
Touny, M. A. (2013). Investigate the Long-Run Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(7), 115–125. doi:10.5539/ijef.v5n7p115
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2020/10/19
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