Uticaj globalnih trendova na spoljnu trgovinu Srbije
Sažetak
Ovaj rad analizira aktuelne ključne procese u globalnoj ekonomiji: pad međunarodne trgovine, rast protekcionizma i skraćivanje globalnih proizvodnih lanaca. Specifični cilj je da istraži uticaj ovih kretanja na srpsku spoljnu trgovinu. Predložene hipoteze su 1) Može se očekivati da će pad obima srpske spoljnotrgovinske razmene biti oštriji od globalnih pokazatelja i 2) Smanjeni obim trgovinske razmene, kako u Srbiji, tako i na globalnom nivou, nastaviće se u dužem periodu. Koristeći statističku analizu za različite vrste podataka, linearnu regresiju i studiju slučaja, istraživanje je potvrdilo prvu hipotezu. Primenom linearne regresije utvrđena je visoka korelacija između spoljnotrgovinske razmene Srbije i sveta od preko 90%. Dobijeni koeficijenti primenjeni su na projekcije Svetske trgovinske organizacije za globalnu trgovinu u 2020. i 2021. Utvrđeno je da je očekivani pad spoljnotrgovinske razmene Srbije skoro dvostruko veći od svetskog proseka. Druga hipoteza je dokazana analizom ekonomskih uzroka glavnih globalnih trendova, koji su se pokazali kao uglavnom strukturalni,dakle dugoročni.
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