Testiranje relacije realni devizni kurs-diferencijal realnih kamatnih stopa u slučaju Srbija-EMU
Sažetak
Cilj ove studije jeste da se ispita da li postoje dokazi empirijske održivosti relacije realni devizni kurs - diferencijal realnih kamatnih stopa u slučaju Srbije i EMU za period od januara 2007. do maja 2012. godine. Teorijska veza izvedena je kombinovanjem nepokrivenog pariteta kamatnih stopa i Fišerove jednačine, dok je empirijsko testiranje zasnovano na konceptu kointegracije vremenskih serija i primeni Johansenovog i Engl-Grejndžerovog testa. Rezultati do kojih smo došli pokazuju da indeks realnog deviznog kursa i diferencijal realnih kamatnih stopa nisu kointegrisane serije, odnosno da one ne formiraju dugoročnu ravnotežnu relaciju. Na osnovu ovakvih nalaza zaključujemo da ne postoje empirijski dokazi da relacija realni devizni kurs - diferencijal realnih kamatnih stopa predstavlja ključ za objašnjenje dugoročne dinamike realnog kursa dinara prema evru.
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