Problematični krediti i sistemski rizik: komparativna analiza Srbije i tranzicionih zemalja CESEE
Sažetak
Ovaj rad prikazuje rezultate istraživanja uticaja problematičnih kredita na sistemski rizik u domaćem bankarstvu i poređenje sa drugim zemljama u tranziciji i nekim zemljama EU. Ekstremna bankocentričnost je uzrokovala proširenje analize na celokupan finansijski sektor Srbije. Pri tome su razdvajane makroekonomska i makrofinansijska komponenta sistemskog rizika. U cilju preciznijeg utvrđivanja osnovnih efekata loših kredita u propagaciji sistemskog rizika autori su osmislili i koristili u istraživanju dva nova sintetička pokazatelja. Prvi je makroekonomska zaraženost problematičnim kreditima (problematični krediti iskazani u procentima BDP-a), a drugi zaraženost finansijskog sektora problematičnim kreditima (procentualni udeo ovih kredita u aktivi finansijskog sektora). Analiza vremenskog perioda neposredno pre i tokom aktuelne finansijske krize i recesije (2007-2012) pokazala je da su problematični krediti glavni generator sistemskog rizika u finansijskom i realnom sektoru Srbije. Uz to, rezultati istraživanja dokazuju da primenjeni sintetički pokazatelji preciznije mere ukupan sistemski rizik i njegove osnovne komponente nego analitički, koji su do sada isključivo bili korišćeni. Komprativna analiza je pokazala iste rezultate ne samo u tranzicionim, već i razvijenim zemljama. Rezultati ovog istraživanja daju smernice i predstavljaju značajan input kreatorima ekonomske politike, jer je sistemski rizik najveća neposredna pretnja ekonomskom prosperitetu i finansijskoj stabilnosti svake zemlje.
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