Емпиријска процена кредитних активности банака детерминантама приватног сектора: Случај Северне Македоније

  • Darko Lazarov University "Goce Delchev", Stip
  • Misho Nikolov Assistant Professor, University American Collage - Skopje,
  • Kiril Simeonoski PhD Candidate at Faculty of Economics, University Ss. Cyril and Methodius - Skopje
Ključne reči: Банкарски кредит приватном сектору, регресија јединствене земље, економски раст, Северна Македонија

Sažetak


Главни циљ листа је да истражи главне детерминанте банкарских кредитних активности приватном сектору у Северној Македонији. Теорија раста и емпиријске студије показују да је кредитна активност банака један од најважнијих фактора економског раста, посебно у земљама у којима финансијским системом доминирају банке. Приступ финансијама приватног сектора од кључног је значаја за подршку инвестицијама, док кредити домаћинствима имају позитиван ефекат на подршку коначној потрошњи. Међутим, фокусирамо се само на банкарске кредите приватном сектору јер то има значајнији утицај на економски раст кроз улагање у физички капитал и технологију. У том смислу, за период од четвртог квартила 2007. до трећег квартета 2019. примењујемо такозвану анализу регресије у једној земљи на основу модела АДРЛ. Резултати показују да депозити и ефикасност банака имају најзначајнији утицај на кредите приватних банака, док ненаплаив кредити негативно утичу на раст кредита приватних банака.

Biografija autora

Darko Lazarov, University "Goce Delchev", Stip
His main scientific and research interests are Financial and International Macroeconomics, Industrial Economics and Economic Growth and Development. His has realized several research studies at Bologna University; High School of Economics -Moscow; Jaume I, Spain. His is actively involved in few research projects in Macedonian Academy of Science and Macedonian Chamber of Commerce. He has attended Advanced Macroeconomic course at Macedonian National Bank organized by CERGE, Prague. He also has been part of many international scientific conferences

Reference

Abuka, C., Egesa, K.A. (2007). An assessment of private sector credit evolution in the East African Community: The candidates for a region wide reform strategy for the financial sector – Working paper presented at CSAE Conference.


Albertazzi U., Leonardo Gambacorta L. (2006) Bank profitability and the business cycle - Economic Working paper, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.


Aisen, A., Franken, M. (2010) Bank Credit during the 2008 Financial Crisis: A CrossCountry Comparison - IMF Working Paper WP/10/47.


Barajas A., Chami, R., Yousefi, S.R (2013) The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally? - IMF Working Paper, WP/13/130.


Beck, T., Levine, R. (2000) Finance and the sources of growth - Journal of Financial Economics, 58, pp. 261-300.


Banerjee, A. (1986) A joint economic-lot-size model for purchaser and vendor- Decision Sciences Journal, 17, pp. 292-311.


Berger A.N, DeYoung, R. (1997) Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks - Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(6), pp. 849-870.


Bikker, J., Bos, W.B.  (2008) A Theoretical and Empirical Framework for the Analysis of Profitability, Competition and Efficiency – Routledge.


Cikak, M., Demirguc-Kunt, A., Feyen, E., Ross, L. (2012) Benchmarking Financial System around the World - The World Bank.


Cottarelli, C., Dell’ Ariccia, G., & Vladkova-Hollar, I. (2005). Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the  Private Sector  in  Central and  Eastern  Europe  and the  Balkans - Journal of Banking and Finance, 29(1), pp. 83-104.


Gabrisch, H. (2015) Financial Constraints on Growth: Comparing the Balkans to Other Transition Economies - Eastern European Economics, 53(4), pp. 309-327.


Guo, K., Stepanyan, V. (2011) Determinants of Bank Credit in Emerging Market Economies - IMF Working Paper WP/11/51.


Engle F.R, C. W. J. Granger C.W.J (1987) Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing – Econometrica, 55(2), pp. 251-276


Imran, K., Nishat, M. (2013) Determinants of bank credit in Pakistan: A supply side approach – Economic Modeling Journal, 35, pp. 384-390.


Johansen, S. (1998) Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, pp. 231-254.


Klenow, P., Rodriguez-Clare, A. (2005) Externalities and Growth - NBER Working Papers, No. 11009.


Magud, E.N., Reinhart, M.C, esperoni R.E (2012) Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms – IMF Working Paper, WP/12/41.


Takáts, E. (2010) Was it credit supply? Cross-border bank lending to emerging market economies during the financial crisis - BIS Quarterly Review.


Pesaran M. H., Shin, Y. (1995) Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis -  DAE WP 9514, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.


Pesaran, M. H., Smith, R. (1995) Estimating Long-run Relationship from Heterogeneous Panels - Journal of Econometrics, 68, pp. 79-113.


Pesaran M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R. (1996) Testing the Existence of A long-run Relationship - DAE WP 9622, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.


Pesaran, M. H. (1997) The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long-run - Economic Journal, 107, pp. 178-191.


Pesaran M. H., Shin, Y. (1999) An autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis - Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Strom S. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.


Pesaran, M.  H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.  J.  (2001) Bound testing approaches to the analysis of the long run relationships - Journal of Applied Economic, 16, pp. 289-326.


Phillips, P. C. B., Perron, P. (1988) Testing for Unit Roots Time Series Regression - Biometrika, 75(2), pp. 335-346.


 Qayyum, A. (2002) Demand for Bank Lending by Private Business Sector in Pakistan - The Pakistan Development Review, 41(2), pp. 149-159.


Hausmann, R., Rodrik, D., Velasco, A. (2006) Growth Diagnostics - Manuscript, Inter-American Development Bank.


Hofmann, B. (2004) The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter? – International finance, 27(2), pp. 203-234


Tan, Y.A., Floros, C. (2012) Bank profitability and GDP growth in China: A note - Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(3), pp. 267-273.


Shijaku, G., Kalluci, I. (2013) Determinants of bank credit to the private sector: The case of Albania - MPRA Paper 79092, University Library of Munich.


Wooldridge, J.  (2002) Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach - Thomson press.


 

Objavljeno
2023/11/08
Broj časopisa
Rubrika
Originalni naučni članak