Kako makroekonomske determinante utiču na likvidnost banaka: Slučaj Srbije
Ključne reči:
banke, likvidnost, makroekonomske determinante, OLS model, Srbija
Sažetak
Cilj istraživanja je istaći važnost makroekonomskog okvir za stabilnost bankarskog sektora, kao I odrediti kako odabrane makroekonomske determinante utiču na likvidnost banaka. Rad analizira uticaj makroekonomskih determinanti na likvidnost banaka u Srbiji od 2008. do 2022. Godine. Koristeći OLS model, istraživanje je otkrilo značajan uticaj BDP stope rasta, inflacije, nezaposlenosti i ukupne štednje, dok ukupan javni dug negativno utiče na likvidnost banaka, ali bez statističke značajnosti. Dobijeni rezultati ukazuju da veća stopa BDP rasta i inflacije dovodi do više pozicije likvidnosti banaka, dok veća stopa nezaposlenosti narušava likvidnost banaka tokom posmatranog perioda. Takođe, dovoljan nivo ukupne štednje omogućava pozitivan uticaj na likvidnost banaka, dok viši nivo duga ima štetan efekat na likvidnost banaka. Ovi nalazi mogu biti lukrativni za menadžere banaka, regulatorne organe i kreatore ekonomskih politika prilikom kreiranja strategija, politika i procedura u pogledu likvidnosti i stabilnosti banaka.
Reference
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Sopan, J., & Dutta, A. (2018). Determinants of liquidity risk in Indian banks: A panel data analysis. Asian Journal of Research in Banking and Finance, 8(6), 47–59. https://doi.org/10.5958/2249-7323.2018.00043.3
Vodová, P. (2011). Liquidity of Czech Commercial Banks and its Determinants. International Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, 5(6), 1060-1067
Yahaya, A., Mahat, F.M.H.Y., & Matemilola, B.T. (2022). Liquidity risk and bank financial performance: an application of system GMM approach. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 30(3), 312-334. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFRC-03-2021-0019
Yitayaw, M.K. (2021). Firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of commercial banks liquidity in Ethiopia: Panel data approach. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1956065
Al-Harbi, A. (2020). Determinates of Islamic banks liquidity. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 11(8), 1619-1632. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-08-2016-0096
Al-Matari, E.M. (2023). The determinants of bank profitability of GCC: The role of bank liquidity as moderating variable – Further analysis. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1423-1435. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2485
Athari, S.A., Saliba, C., Khalife, D., & Salameh-Ayanian, M. (2023). The Role of Country Governance in Achieving the Banking Sector’s Sustainability in Vulnerable Environments: New Insight from Emerging Economies. Sustainability, 15(3), 10538. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310538
Batrancea, L., Rathnaswamy, M.M., & Batrancea, I. (2021). A Panel Data Analysis of Economic Growth Determinants in 34 African Countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14, 260. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14060260
Bayar, Y. (2019). Macroeconomic, Institutional and Bank-Specific Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Emerging Market Economies: A Dynamic Panel Regression Analysis. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 8(3), 95-110. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0026
Bucevska, V., & Misheva, H.B. (2017). The Determinants of Profitability in the Banking Industry: Empirical Research on Selected Balkan Countries. Eastern European Economics, 55(2), 146-167. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2016.1260473
Chowdhury, M.A., & Salman, M.A.G. (2021). Bank-specific & Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Bangladeshi Private Commercial Banks. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Business, 7(4), 72-80. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtab.20210704.11
Cvetkovska, V., Fotova Čiković, K., & Tasheva, M. (2021). Efficiency of Commercial Banking in Developing Countries. Mathematics, 9(14), 1597. https://doi.org/10.3390/math9141597
Đuranović, G., & Filipović, S. (2021). The impact of market concentration on competitiveness of the banking sector in Serbia. Industry, 49(3/4), 25-45. https://doi.org/industrija49-36262
Gazi, M.A.I., Karim, R., Senathirajah, A.R.B.S., Ullah, A.K.M., Afrin, K.H., & Nahiduzzaman, M. (2024). Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability of Islamic Shariah-Based Banks: Evidence from New Economic Horizon Using Panel Data. Economies, 12(3), 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12030066
Grubišić, Z., Kamenković, S., & Kaličanin, T. (2021). Comparative Analysis of the Banking Sector Competitiveness in Serbia and Montenegro. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 1, 75-91. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0004
Mazreku, I., Morina, F., Misiri, V., Spiteri, J. V., & Grima, S. (2019). Exploring the liquidity risk factors in the Balkan region banking system. European Research Studies Journal, 22(1), 96–108. https://doi.org/10. 35808/ersj/1409
Mdaghri, A.A., Oubdi, L. (2022). Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2, 55-76. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0013
Mirović, V., Kalaš, B., Milenković, N., Andrašić, J., & Đaković, M. (2024). Modelling Profitability Determinants in the Banking Sector: The Case of the Eurozone. Mathematics, 12(6), 897. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12060897
Mohammad, S., Asutay, M., Dixon, R., & Platonova, E. (2020). Liquidity risk exposure and its determinants in the banking sector: A comparative analysis between Islamic, conventional and hybrid banks. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 66, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101196
National Bank of Serbia. (2022). Annual Financial Stability Report. Retrieved from: https://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/NBS_site/documents-eng/publikacije/fs/fsr_2022.pdf
Pham, H.N., & Pham, T.H.N. (2022). Determinants of Bank Liquidity: Evidence from Vietnam. In: Ngoc Tach, N., Ha, D.T., Trung, N.D., Kreinovich, V. (eds) Prediction and Causality in Econometrics and Related Topics. ECONVN 2021. Studies in Computational Intellingence, vol 983. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77094-5_17
Radojičić, J., Jemović, M., & Dragijević, D. (2021). An Analysis of Concentration and Competition in the Banking Sector of the Republic of Serbia. Economic Themes, 59(4), 427-444. https://doi.org/10.2478/ethemes-2021-0024
Radovanov, B., Milenković, N., Kalaš, B., & Marcikić Horvat, A. (2023). Do the Same Determinants Affect Banks’ Profitability and Liquidity? Mathematics, 11(19), 4072. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11194072
Sopan, J., & Dutta, A. (2018). Determinants of liquidity risk in Indian banks: A panel data analysis. Asian Journal of Research in Banking and Finance, 8(6), 47–59. https://doi.org/10.5958/2249-7323.2018.00043.3
Vodová, P. (2011). Liquidity of Czech Commercial Banks and its Determinants. International Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, 5(6), 1060-1067
Yahaya, A., Mahat, F.M.H.Y., & Matemilola, B.T. (2022). Liquidity risk and bank financial performance: an application of system GMM approach. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 30(3), 312-334. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFRC-03-2021-0019
Yitayaw, M.K. (2021). Firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of commercial banks liquidity in Ethiopia: Panel data approach. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1956065