Funkcija fiskalne reakcije: primer zemalja CESEE regiona
Sažetak
Cilj ovog rada je unapređenje metodologije postavljene u ranijim istraživanjima drugih autora za procenu uticaj javnog duga na bruto primarni bilans u velikom skupu od 21 zemlje CESEE regiona. Jedna od posledica dugotrajne krize u tim zemljama je porast disbalansa javnih finansija te je neophodno analizirati koji faktori izazivaju takve efekte. Primenom regresije na panel podatke utvrđeno je da državni dug sa docnjom i autput jaz imaju pozitivan uticaj na primarni bilans. Takođe je potvrđena nelinearne veza između primarnog bilansa u i dug sa docnjom, sa pojavom fiskalnog zamora na nivou od 70%. Procena uvećanog modela pokazuje da je kontracikličan odgovor primanog bilansa izraženiji tokom ekonomske krize u odnosu na period prosperiteta.
Reference
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