Analiza kretanja berzanskog indeksa SASX - 30 u uslovima usporenog ekonomskog rasta
Sažetak
Rezime: U prvom kvartalu 2012. godine skoro svi posmatrani indeksi na regionalnom tržištu kapitala su zabilježili porast u vrijednosti, izuzev tržišta kapitala u BiH, tj. indeksa Sarajevske berze vrijednosnih papira (SASX-10) i indeksa Banjalučke berze hartija od vrijednosti (BIRS). Dakle, najveći rast je ostvario srbijanski regionalni indeks (BELEX 15) u iznosu od 6,59%, zatim hrvatski (CROBEX) od 5,36%, makedonski (MBI10) od 2,56%, crnogorski (MONEX) s rastom od 2,17% i slovenski (SBI TOP) s prinosom od 1,64%. Najveći pad u vrijednosti ostvarili su banjalučki indeks (BIRS) od 4,69% i sarajevski (SASX-10) u iznosu od 3,57%. U ovom radu se analizira uticaj četiri nezavisne varijable putem višestruke linerane regresije na jednu zavisnu varijablu. Zavisna varijabla je berzanski indeks Sarajevske berze (SASX – 30), dok su nezavisne varijable u modelu ukupni promet akcija, ukupni krediti komercijalnim bankama, tržišna kapitalizacija i berzanski indeks Njujorške berze (S&P 500). Osnovni cilj u ovom radu je utvrditi da li postoji međuzavisnost u kretanju između nezavisnih i zavisnih varijabli u cilju boljeg razumijevanja faktora koji utiču na samo kretanje berzanskog indeksa SASX – 30.
Ključne reči: berzanski indeks, promet, tržišna kapitalizacija, S&P 500, regresiona analiza.
Reference
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