Cene energije i njihov direktan efekat na inflaciju u Srbiji u periodu 2016-2025
Ključne reči:
inflacija, potrošačke cene, cene energije, električna energija, Srbija
Sažetak
Tokom poslednjih petnaest godina inflacija u Srbiji je uglavnom bila niska i u okvirima zadatog cilja NBS, sa izuzetkom perioda 2021-2023. Cilj ovog rada je da proceni direktan doprinos cena energije inflaciji u Srbiji. Energija čini oko 16% potrošačke korpe u Srbiji, a kretanje cena energije utiče na nebaznu inflaciju koja sadrži rast cena koje su sklone velikim kratkoročnim oscilacijama usled šokova ponude. U radu je prikazano kretanje cena električne energije, gasa, čvrstih goriva, grejanja i goriva za putnička vozila, kao i efekti promene navedenih cena na inflaciju u Srbiji u periodu 2016-2025. Direktan doprinos cena energije rastu opšteg nivoa cena u Srbiji u većem delu posmatranog perioda iznosio je manje od jednog procentnog poena godišnje, odnosno između 15 i 30 procenata ukupnog doprinosa svih elemenata potrošačke korpe. Pri tome, najveći doprinos inflaciji dalo je povećanje cena električne energije, a zatim povećanje cena goriva za putnička vozila i čvrstih goriva.
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Miletić, M., Cerović, D., & Tomin, A. (2023). Impact of Global Supply Disruptions and Energy Prices on Inflation in European Countries. Working Papers Bulletin V – September 2023, National Bank of Serbia.
Minasyan, G., Ozturk, E., Pinat, M., Wang, M., & Zhu, Z. (2023). Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans. IMF Working Paper No. WP/23/49.
Mladenović, Z., Arsić, M., & Nojković, A. (2024). Econometric Analysis of Energy Prices on Inflation in Serbia. The 51st Symposium on Operational Research – SYM-OP-IS 2024 Conference Proceedings. Tara, September 16-19, 2024. https://doi.org/10.24867/SYMOPIS-2024-51-022.
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Nikolić, I., & Filipović, S. (2020). How Energy Transition Will Affect Electricity Prices in Serbia? Industrija, 48(1), 47-60.
OECD. (2025). Energy Prices and Subsidies in the Western Balkans: Reforms for a Fair and Green Future. OECD Development Pathways, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/082ea26a-en.
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Wehrhöfer, N. (2023). Energy Prices and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Households and Firms. Deutsche Bundesbank, Discussion Paper No. 28/2023.