Veza između reformi i spoljnog duga u zemljama u tranziciji
Sažetak
Zemlje u tranziciji su u periodu nakon eskalacije globalne ekonomske krize zabeležile rast spoljne zaduženosti. Cilj rada je da se utvrdi da li postoji korelaciona veza između tranzicionih reformi i nivoa spoljnog duga. Istraživanje se bazira na primeni Mann-Whitney U testa na uzorku od 27 zemalja u tranziciji. Zemlje u tranziciji su podeljene u dve grupe u zavisnosti da li im je vrednost prosečnog tranzicionog indikatora u 2012. godini veća, odnosno manja od 3.4. Istraživanje je pokazalo da postoji pozitivna i statistički značajna veza između posmatranih varijabli, odnosno da zemlje koje imaju veći prosečni tranzicioni indikator imaju i veću spoljnu zaduženost. Primenom regresione analize utvrđena je pozitivna i statistički značajna veza između posmatranih varijabli i u slučaju Srbije koja ulazi u zonu visoke zaduženosti. Nalazi istraživanja ukazuju na potrebu preispitivanja efikasnosti postojećih ekonomskih politika kao i definisanja novog pravca razvoja koji bi bez dodatnog spoljnog zaduživanja dao zamajac privrednom rastu zemalja u tranziciji.
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