Determinante cene stanova novogradnje u Srbiji
Sažetak
Rad analizira determinante cena stanova novogradnje u Srbiji na panel podacima iz 24 grada u periodu 2011-2014. Rezultati su pokazali da na cene stanova novogradnje prvenstveno utiču rast stanovništva i masa isplaćenih realnih zarada kao reprezent dohotka stanovništva, dok sa padom efektivne kamatne stope na stambene kredite raste cena stanova novogradnje. Ocene ostalih objašnjavajućih promenljivih, kao što su nivo razvijenosti gradova, geografska udaljenost od Beograda ili dinamika privredne aktivnosti merena kretanjem realnog BDP-a, uprkos očekivanom znaku, pokazale su se kao statistički nesignifikantne za cene stanova novogradnje.
Reference
Adams, Z., & Füss, R. (2010). Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 19(1), 38-50. doi:10.1016/j.jhe.2009.10.005
Andrews, D. (2010). Real House Prices in OECD Countries: The Role of Demand Shocks and Structural and Policy Factors. In OECD Economics Department Working Papers. OECD Publishing.
Baltagi, B.H. (2013). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 5th. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Breusch, T.S., & Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. doi:10.2307/2297111
-Deutsche Bundesbank. (2013). The determinants and regional dependencies of house price increases since 2010,. (pp. 13-31). Monthly Report October. Retrieved from http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Monthly_Report/2013/2013_10_monthly_report.pdf?__blob=publicationFile.
-EUROSTAT. (2013). Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices (RPPIs), Methodologies & Working papers. European Commission.
Garmaise, M.J. (2003). Confronting Information Asymmetries: Evidence from Real Estate Markets. Review of Financial Studies, 17(2), 405-437. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhg037
Goodhart, C., & Hofmann, B. (2007). Financial Conditions Indices, in House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Implications for Banking and Price Stability. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Green, R.K., Malpezzi, S., & Mayo, S.K. (2005). Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources. American Economic Review, 95(2), 334-339. doi:10.1257/000282805774670077
Hill, R.C., Griffiths, W.E., & Lim, G.C. (2011). Principles of Econometrics, 4th. John Wiley & Sons, Inc..
Himmelberg, C., Mayer, C., & Sinai, T. (2005). Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions. In NBER Working Paper. doi:10.3386/w11643
Iacoviello, M., & Neri, S. (2008). Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model. In Economic working papers. Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Are.
Iossifov, P., Cihák, M., & Shanghavi, A. (2008). Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices. In IMF Working Paper, WP/08/247. (p. 34). doi:10.5089/9781451871050.001
Kubirić, M. (2013). Model for determing the average cost of property territorial units in Serbia. Geonauka, 1(1), 12.
-NARR - National Agency for Regional Development, Republic
of Serbia. (2015). Legislative and Strategic Framework of Regional Development Policy. Retrieved from http://narr.gov.rs/index.php/narr-en/About-regional-development/Legislative-and-Strategic-Framework-of-Regional-Development-Policy
Nikolic, I., & Kovacevic, M. (2014). The impact of privatization: Empirical analysis and results in Serbian industry. Industrija,42(1), 63-86. doi:10.5937/industrija42-4846
Mankiw, N.G., & Weil, D.N. (1989). The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(2), 235-58. pmid:12283640. doi:10.1016/0166-0462(89)90005-7
Mikhed, V., & Zemčík, P. (2009). Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence. Journal of Housing Economics, 18(2), 140-149. doi:10.1016/j.jhe.2009.03.001
Panagiotidis, T., & Printzis, P. (2015). On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: A VECM approach. In Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe, GreeSE Paper.
Reinhart, C.M., & Rogoff, K.S. (2009). This Time is Different; Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.
-SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. (2015). Anual prices of dwellings of new construction in period 2011-2014. Retrieved from http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/Public/PageView.aspx?pKey=121.
Šoškić, D., Urošević, B., Živković, B., & Božović, M. (2012). The Housing Market in Serbia in the Past Decade. In A. Bardhan & et al. (Eds.), Global Housing Markets: Crises, Policies, and Institutions. (p. 576). John Wiley & Sons.