Ocena transmisionog mehanizma monetarne politike u Srbiji
Sažetak
Transmisioni mehanizam monetarne politike je u skorije vreme bio predmet nekoliko studija u Srbiji.Tzv. “crna kutija” monetarne politike istraživana je sa ciljem da se uoče efekti transmisionog mehanizma u okruženju sa dominantnom ulogom deviznog kursa kao instrumenta centralne banke. Zbog toga, i sam je izazov suočiti se sa ovim problemom kada se u režimu ciljanja inflacije očekuje veća uloga referentne kamatne stope kao glavnog instrumenta monenetarne politike. U studiji je primenjen nerestrikovani model vektorske autoregresije kako bi se ispitao značaj kanala deviznog kursa i kanala kamatne stope. Kao što se moglo i očekivati, devizni kurs ima daleko jači uticaj na inflaciju nego što to ima referentna kamatna stopa, iako ima naznaka o postojanju kamatnog kanala. Uvođenje Euribor kamatne stope kao endogene varijable u VAR sistem dolazi se do zaključka da strana kamatna stopa ima značajan uticaj na kretanje realnih varijabli.
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