MATHEMATIČKI MOEL STARENJA U COVID-19

Olivera Jovanikic

doi:10.5937/jomb0-39602

Olivera Jovanikic Neurosurgeon, MMA, Belgrade, Serbia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/jomb0-39602

Ključne reči: COVID19 virus, mathematical model, intima-media thickness, carotid. C-reaktive protein, interleukin-6,fibrinogen, ultrasonography, pneumonia

Sažetak

Cilj. Ispitivanje debljine intimomedijalnog kompleksa karotidnih arterija u COVID 19 infekciji.

Metode. Kod 50 pacijenata sa PCR(+) testom merena je debljina intimomedijalnog kompleksa(IMT) u zajedničkim karotidnim arterijama. Vrednosti su uporedjene sa kontrolnom grupom 2006-9god. Stanje pluća ocenjeno je sonografijom- lak (0-14) ili srednje težak kovid ( 15-28). Beleženi su rizikofaktori zadebljanja IMT i vrednost fibrinogena, IL-6 i CRP. Formirana su dva modela predvidjanja IMT. Sociepidemiološki model predvidja razvoj IMT na osnovu epidemioloških faktora. Drugi model, osim ovih faktora uključuje i vrednosti navedenih biomarkera.

Resultati. It skor pluća 20±6, 18% lak i 82% srednje težak COVID-19; IMT desno 1,024±0,272mm i levo 0,999±0,224( razlika strana nema p=0,379). Kontrolna grupa IMT 0,78±0,27mm i levo 0,79±0,27mm( nema razlike strana p=0,864). Razlika grupa/kontrola je visoko značajna ( p=0,000). Epidemiološki model: logit (IMT)= 4,463+(2,021+vrednost za GEN)+ (0,055xvrednost za AGE)+)-3.419x vrednost za RF)+(-4.447x vrednost za SM)+(5,115xvrednost za HTA)+(3,56x vrednost zaDM)+(22,389x vrednost za LIP)+(24,206x vrednost za KVO)+( 1,449x vrednost za drugo)+(-0,138xvrednost za It skor)+(0,19x vrednost za BMI). Epidemiološko-inflamatorni model: logit(IMT)=5,204+(2,545x vrednost GEN)+(0,076x vrednost za AGE)+(-6,132xvrednost za RF)+(-7,583x vrednost za SM)+(8,744x vrednost za HTA)+ (6,838x vrednost za DM)+(25,446x vrednost za LIP)+(28,825x vrednost za KVO)+(2,487 x vrednost za drugo)+(-0,218x vrednost za It skor)+( 0,649x vrednost za BMI)+(-0,194x vrednost za fibrinogen)+(0,894x vrednost za IL-6)+( 0,659x vrednost za CRP). Vrednosti za oba modela Exp(B)=4,882; P of sample=0,83;logit=-0,19; OR=23,84;preciznost modela 87% i 88% ( prvi, drugi model, redom); Omnibus test prvog modela χ²=34,324;p=0,000; koeficijent verodostojnosti –2LogLH=56, 854 Omnibus test drugog modela χ²=39,774;p=0,000; -2LogLH=51,403.

Zaključak. Starenje krvnih sudova u COVID 19 se može predvideti.

Skraćenice: IMT- zadebljanje intimomedijalnog kompleksa; GEN- pol; AGE- starost; RF- broj rizikofaktora; DM-dijabetes; SM-pušenje; HTA-hipertenzija; LIP-lipidemija;KVO- kardiovaskularna oboljenja; drugo- druga oboljenja od značaja za IMT; BMI- indeks telesne mase.

Reference

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