POTENCIJALNI RIZICI I PROBLEMI КOD GAJENJA VIŠEGODIŠNJIH ENERGETSКIH USEVA
Sažetak
Proizvodni sistemi druge generacije biogoriva su znatno bolji od sistema prve generacije. Međutim, veličina površina na kojima se gaje zavise od javne podrške i one opadaju kada izostane podrška. Uprkos svim mogućim životno-sredinskim i ekonomskim koristima, višegodišnji energetski usevi trenutno ne igraju značajniju ulogu. Tek treba da se razvije tržište za bioenergetsku biomasu. Smatra se da će u EU osnovni ograničavajući faktor za razvoj biogorivnih useva biti raspoložive zemljišne površine. U jugoistočnoj Evropi, pak, postoji veliki neiskorišćeni potencijal za proizvodnju bioenergije na napuštenim i marginalnim poljoprivrednim površinama. Кritičan faktor u prihvatanju novih useva, kao što su bioenergetski usevi, je njihova profitabilnost u odnosu na postojeće usevne sisteme. Pri tom, višegodišnji energetski usevi predstavljaju i rizične investicije. Ekonomski održiva proizvodnja namenskog energetskog useva biće teško ostvariva na većini zemljišta bonitetnih klasa V-VIII. U pogledu rizičnosti ulaganja poljoprivrednih proizvođača, kukuruz ima prednost nad svim višegodišnjim sistemima energetskih useva. Identifikovano je čak 10 vrsta rizika za njihovu uspešnu proizvodnju: (1) obezbeđenost useva vodom; (2) prisustvo korova u usevu; (3) opasnost od izmrzavanja useva; (4) poleganje useva; (5) bolesti useva i štetočine; (6) kratki žetveni rokovi i varijabilni prinosi; (7) ekonomičnost gajenja na zemljištima nižih bonitetnih klasa; (8) uticaj agrotehnike i agroekoloških uslova na kvalitet biomase; (9) skladištenje požnjevene biomase i opasnost od požara; i (10) ekonomske sankcije, rat i ratno okruženje. Trenutno se smatra da je tranzicija ka 100% obnovljivoj proizvodnji u sektoru električne energije nedostižna. Zbog toga, iako gajenje višegodišnjih energetskih kultura ima perspektivu, ona se mora sistemski planirati i dalje unapređivati.
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