STANJE I TENDENCIJE PROIZVODNIH KARAKTERISTIKA PŠENICE I KUKURUZA U SRBIJI
Sažetak
Cilj istraživanja je da se utvrde stanje i tendencije u kretanju proizvodnih karakteristika pšenice i kukuruza u Srbiji u periodu od 2005-2020 godine. Analizirani su površina, prinos i ukupna proizvodnja. Za utvrđivanje stanja i tendencija posmatranih obeležja korišćena je deskriptivna statistika. Za predviđanje vrednosti obeležja u periodu 2021-2023 godina korišćena su dva metoda: ARIMA model i ekstrapolacija prosečne stope promene analizirane pojave. ARIMA model nije dao zadovoljavajuće rezultate usled kratke vremenske serije koja je analizirana. Primenom ekstrapolacije prosečne stope promene, autori su zaključili da je prinos kukuruza i pšenice u analiziranom periodu ispoljio tendenciju rasta, pri čemu su površine oba useva ispoljile tendenciju pada. Ukupna proizvodnja pšenice i kukuruza imaju tendenciju rasta za vreme perioda predikcije u odnosu na višegodišnje proseke analiziranog perioda. Rezultati predviđanja ukazuju da je za očekivati 15,54% veći obim proizvodnje pšenice, a kukuruza povećanje za 28,41%,
Reference
Devi, M., Kumar, J., Malik, D., P., Mishra, P. (2021): Forecasting of wheat production in Haryana using hybrid time series model. Journal of Agriculture and Food Resreach, vol 5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2021.100175
Geoffrey Allen, P., (1994): Economic forecasting in agriculture. International Journal of Forecasting, vol 10, (1), pp 81-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(94)90052-3
Li, J., Li, G., Liu, M., Zhu, X., Wei, L., (2022): A novel text-based framework for forecasting agricultural futures using massive online news headlines. International Journal of Forecasting, vol 38, (1), pp 35-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.02.002
Malinovský, V. (2021): Predicting Trends in Cereal Production in the Czech Republic by Means of Neural Networks, Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Volume XIII, Number 1, p. 87-103 https://media.proquest.com/media/hms/PFT/1/IvLnJ?_s=wTdXHNfjTZS9BmyJrDym1YuOcMY%3D
Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., Vukelić, N., Radojević, V. (2016): Analysis and prediction of prices and price parties of corn and wheat in Serbia. Journal on Processing and Energy in Agriculture, vol 20 (2), pp 106-108.
Niyigaba, J., Peng, D. (2020): Analysis and Forecasting the Agriculture Production Sector in Rwanda, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 12, No. 8; ISSN 1916-971X E-ISSN 1916-9728, Published by Canadian Center of Science and Education, doi:10.5539/ijef.v12n8p
Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Ivanišević, D., Drinić, LJ., Vukelić, N., (2019): Models for forecasting the price of wheat and maize in Serbia. Journal on Processing and Energy in Agriculture, vol, 23 (3), pp 134-141.
NovkoNovkivić, N., Vukelić, N., Janošević, M. (2020): Analysis and forecast of the production parameters of major cereal crops in Serbia, Journal on Processing and Energy in Agriculture, vol, 24 (2), DOI 10.5937/jpea24-25579, pp 45-49.
Novković, N., Vukelić, N., Paunović, B., Hubana, A., Drinić, LJ., (2021): Tendencies and prediction of grape production characteristics in Serbia. Book of Proceedings of the XII International Scientific Agricultural Symposium “Agrosym 2021”, pp 1281-187. ISBN 978-99976-787-9-9
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia: https://www.stat.gov.rs/
