DETERRING RUSSIA AND THE STRATEGIC NARRATIVE ON THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN INNOVATED DEFENSE POLICIES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

  • Milan Igrutinović Institute of European Studies
Keywords: war in Ukraine, Russia, European Union, member states, deterrence, strategic narrative, security and defence strategies

Abstract


The paper deals with the publicly expressed logic of deterring Russia, which is understood as a security threat, in the valid doctrinal documents of the European Union and member states, adopted after Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022. First, the declarative attitudes towards the war and the role of Russia, the positioning of Russia as an immediate and long-term security threat are analysed. Those positions are understood as elements of strategic macro narratives about the Russian threat. It then outlines new steps taken to deter the real or perceived threat from Russia, from increasing military budgets to developing military industries. These steps are then analysed in the light of the formal competencies of the European Union in the field of defense, which are minor in relation to military control and capacity, bearing in mind national competencies and the role of NATO, and are much more related to the development of the military industry and technological solutions with a military purpose. The author's conclusion is that there is an established strategic narrative at the EU level that fixes the role of Russia as a security threat. Against such a threat, the processes of arming, innovating military doctrines, and developing the military industry have been launched, which have the function of deterring Russia for a foreseeable long period, and without the particular regard to the immediate outcome of the war in Ukraine.

References

Bomprezzi, Pietro, Kharitinov, Ivan and Christoph Trebesch (2024). „Ukraine Support Tracker – Methodological Update & New Results on Aid “Allocation” (June 2024).“ IFW Kiel, https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Subject_ Dossiers_Topics/Ukraine/Ukraine_Support_Tracker/Ukraine_Support_Tracker_-_Research_Note.pdf, последњи приступ 26. 9. 2024.
Council of the EU [EU Strategic Compass]. A Strategic Compass for Security and Defence - For a European Union that protects its citizens, values and interests and contributes to international peace and security. Brussels, 21 March 2022. https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-7371-2022-INIT/en/pdf, последњи приступ 27. 9. 2024.
EU-NATO Declaration. 2023. Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation by the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, and the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Brussels, 10 January 2023.
European Commission [European Defence Industrial Strategy]. A New European Defence Industrial Strategy: Achieving EU readiness through a responsive and resilient European Defense Industry, Brussels, 5. 3. 2024 JOIN(2024) 10 final, https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/643c4a00-0da9 4768- 83cda5628f5c3063_en?filename=EDIS%20Joint%20Communication.pdf, последњи приступ 27. 9. 2024.
Fernández, Óscar, et al. 2023. “The impact of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine on public perceptions of EU security and defence integration: a big data analysis.” Journal of European Integration 45(3): 463–485, Doi: 10.1080/07036337.2023. 2183392.
Fiott, Daniel. 2023. “In every crisis an opportunity? European Union integration in defence and the War on Ukraine.” Journal of European Integration 45:(3): 447–462, DOI: 10.1080/07036337.2023.2183395
Foreign and Security Policy Strategy [Denmark's Foreign and Security Strategy]. Ministry of the Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Denmark, July 2023, https://um.dk/en/foreign-policy/foreign-and-security-policy-2023 последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
Freedman, Lawrence. 2023. “The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Durability of Deterrence.” Survival 65(6): 7–36. Doi: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2285598.
Hoeffler, Catherine, Hofmann, Stéphanie C., and Frédéric Mérand. 2024. “The polycrisis and EU security and defence competences.” Journal of European Public Policy 31(10): 3224–3248. doi: 10.1080/13501763.2024.2362762.
Homolar, Alexandra, Oliver Turner. 2023. “Narrative alliances: the discursive foundations of international order.” International Affairs 100(1): 203–220, Doi: 10.1093/ia/iiad291.
Igrutinović, Milan, Slađana Ćurčić. 2024. „Snaga međuvladinog principa u Zajedničkoj bezbednosnoj i odbrambenoj politici i slabost ambicija o strateškoj autonomiji Evropske unije u kontekstu ukrajinske krize.“ Međunarodni problemi LXXVI(2): 223-248, doi: 10.2298/MEDJP2402223I.
Integrated Security for Germany. National Security Strategy [German Security Strategy], Federal Foreign Office, June 2023, https://www.Nationalesicherheitsstrategie .de/National-Security-Strategy-EN.pdf, последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
Jonsson, Emma, et al. 2024. “Multifaceted Conscription: A Comparative Study of Six European Countries.” Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies 7(1): 19–33. doi: 10.31374/sjms.166.
Мeissner, Katharina, Chiara Graziani. 2023. “The transformation and design of EU restrictive measures against Russia.” Journal of European Integration 45:(3): 377-394, DOI: 10.1080/07036337.2023.2190105
Miskimmon, Alister, O’Loughlin, Ben and Laura Roselle. 2013. Strategic Narratives. Communication Power and the New World Order. New York and London: Routledge.
Miskimmon, Alister, O’Loughlin, Ben and Laura Roselle. 2015. “Strategic Narratives: a response”. Critical Studies on Security 3(3): 341-344, Doi: 10.1080/21624887.2015.1103023.
Miskimmon, Alister, O’Loughlin, Ben and Laura Roselle, eds. 2017. Forging the world: strategic narratives and international relations. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
National Security Concept of Estonia [Estonian National Security Concept] Government of the Republic of Estonia, 22. 2. 2023, https:// kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/eesti_julgeolekupoliitika_alused_eng_22.02.2023.pdf, последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
National Security Strategy [Swedish National Security Strategy], Government Offices of Sweden - Prime Minister's Office, 8 July 2024, https://www.government.se/ information-material/2024/07/national-security-strategy/, последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
National Strategic Review [French Strategic Review], Premiere Ministre, Secretariat general de la defense et de la securite national, Toulon, 9. 11. 2022, https://www.sgdsn.gouv.fr/files/files/rns-uk-20221202.pdf, последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
Röhl, Klaus-Heiner, Bardt, Hubertus, Barbara Engels. 2023. “A new era for the defense industry? Security Policy and Defense Capability after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” IW-Policy Paper 1/2023, https://hdl.handle.net/10419/270725.
Security Strategy of the Czech Republic [Czech Security Strategy], Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, June 2023, https://mzv .gov.cz/jnp/en/foreign_relations/security_policy/security_strategy_of_the_czech_republic/, последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
The Chief of Defence Strategic Concept [Italian Defence Strategic Concept], Italian Defence General Staff, Office of the Chief of Defence, September 2022, https://www.difesa.it/assets/allegati/24873/chief_of_defence_strategic_concept_2022_.pdf, последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
The Military Balance. The Annual Assessment of Global Military Capabilities and Defence Economics [Military Balance]. The International Institute for Security Studies 2024. London: Routledge.
The Security Strategy for the Kingdom of the Netherlands [Netherlands' Security Strategy], Government of the Kingdom of Netherlands, 3. 4. 2023, https://www. government.nl/documents/publications/2023/04/03/security-strategy-for-the-kingdom-of-the-netherlands, последњи приступ 24. 9. 2024.
Vanaga, Nora, Toms Rostoks, eds. 2019. Deterring Russia in Europe: Defence Strategies for Neighbouring States. London and New York: Routledge.
Zimmerman, Hubert. 2023. "Russia’s war and EU peace: The role of the Russian ‘other’ in European integration." In The Political Economy of Europe’s Future and Identity: Integration in crisis mode, eds. Anette Bongardt and Francisco Torres, 276-285. Florence: European University Institute.
Published
2024/11/08
Section
Scientific papers