EVOLUTION OF THE RUSSIAN CONCEPT OF STRATEGIC DETERRENCE
Abstract
This article explores the evolution of Russia’s strategic deterrence concept from the Cold War era to the current conflict in Ukraine. The primary goal is to analyze how Russia’s nuclear and military doctrines have transformed and how deterrence has become a multidimensional instrument of national security. By applying content and comparative analysis methods, the paper contrasts the Russian approach with the Western (primarily American) paradigm. The findings reveal that Russia’s deterrence model has expanded significantly, incorporating not only nuclear and conventional capabilities, but also cyber, economic, and ideological tools. The study concludes that deterrence in the Russian context surpasses traditional defensive purposes and becomes an active element of power projection in a complex global security environment.
References
Adamsky, Dmitry. 2015. “Cross-Domain Coercion: The Current Russian Art of Strategy.” Institut français des relations internationales Security Studies Center. http://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/pp54adamsky.pdf.
Adsamsky, Dmitry. 2019. Russian nuclear orthodoxy. Stenford University Press.
Aljazeera. 2023. „Šta je Novi START, sporazum SAD-a i Rusije koji je Putin suspendirao.“ https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/world/2023/2/21/sta-je-novi-start-sporazum-sad-a-i-rusije-koji-je-putin-suspendovao.
Arkadij, Vitaljevič Nedelin, Vladimir Ivanovič Levšin and Mihail Evgenjevič Sosnovski. 1999. “On the Use of Nuclear Weapons for the De-Escalation of Military Conflict.” VoyennayaMysl.
Ball, Jordan. 2022. “Escalate to De-Escalate: Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy.” Global Security Review. https://globalsecurityreview.com/nuclear-deescalation-russias-deterrence-strategy.
Bogdanov, Anatoljevič Sergej, and Sergej Grigorjevič Čekinov. 2012. “Strategic Deterrence and Russian National Security in the Contemporary Era.” VoyennayaMysl 3.
Borger, Julian. 2018. “US Nato envoy's threat to Russia: stop developing missile or we'll 'take it out.” Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/02/us-ambassador-nato-russia-kay-bailey-hutchison.
Bruusgaard, Ven Kristin. 2016. “Russian Strategic Deterrence.” Survival 58 (4): 7–26. doi: 10.1080/00396338.2016.1207945.
Charap, Samuel. 2015. “The Ghost of Hybrid War.” Survival 57 (6): 51–58. doi: 10.1080/00396338.2015.1116147.
Driver, Darrell W. 2019. “Deterrence in Eastern Europe in Theory and Practice.” The Quarterly Journal 18 (1–2): 11–24.
Giles, Keir. 2022. “Myths and Misconceptions around Russian Military Intent - Myth 9: Russian Nuclear Strategy Is Best Described as ‘Escalate to De-Escalate.” Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/07/myths-and-misconceptions-around-russian-military-intent/myth-9-russian-nuclear-strategy.
Hines, G. John, Ellis M. Mishulovich and John F. Shull. 1995. “Soviet Intentions 1965–1985: An Analytical Comparison of U.S.–Soviet Assessments During the Cold War.” BDM. http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb285/doc02_I_front_matter.pdf.
Joint Chiefs of Staff. 2018. “Description of the National Military Strategy.” https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Publications/UNCLASS_2018_National_Military_Strategy_Description.pdf.
Khamzatov, Maro, and Baluyevskiy Yuriy. 2014. “Globalizatsiyaivoyen noyedyelo.” Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozrenie. http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-08-08/1_globalisation.html.
Krejdin, Viktorovič Sergej, Andrej Andrejevič Protasov and Sergej Jurjevič Yegorov. 2009. “Sistemy upravleniya voiskami (silami) kak instrument strategichsekogo sderzhivaniya.” Voyennaya Mysl.
Kroenig, Matthew. 2018. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lanoszka, Alexander. 2016. “Russian Hybrid Warfare and Extended Deterrence in Eastern Europe.” International Affairs 92 (1): 175–195.
Lunn, Simon, and Nicholas Williams. 2019. “The Demise of the INF Treaty: What Are the Consequences for NATO.” European Leadership Network. https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief/the-demise-of-the-inf-treaty-what-are-the-consequences-for-nato/.
Matvichuk, Vasiljevič Vladimir, and Aleksandar Leonidovič Khryapin. 2010. “Sistema strategichsekogo sderzhivaniya v novikh uslovyakh.” Voyennaya Mysl 1.
Military-Encyclopaedic Dictionary of the Russian Ministry of Defense. n.d. http://encyclopedia.mil.ru/encyclopedia/dictionary/details.htm?id=14206@morfDictionary.
Ministarstvo odbrane Ruske Federacije. 2014. “Vojna doktrina Ruske Federacije.”
Pengelly, Martin. 2018. “Trump says US will withdraw from nuclear arms treaty with Russia.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/20/trump-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-russia.
Pikler, Džefri V. 2023. “Sovremennaya sistema sderzhivaniya – Voyna XXI veka trebuyet sistemy sderzhivaniya XXI veka.” Wild Blue Yonder: Air University
Poletayev, Ivanovič Viktor, and Alferov Vladimirovič Valerij. 2015. “O neyadernom sderzhivanii, ego roli i meste v sisteme strategicheskogo sderzhivaniya.” VoennaiaMysl.
President of the Russian Federation. 2010. “Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation.” Section 27 point 6. http://rg.ru/2010/02/10/doktrina-dok.html.
President of the Russian Federation. 2014. “National Security Strategy.” Russian Military Doctrine. Section IV point 34.
Reif, Kingston. 2020. “New START at a Glance Fact Sheets & Briefs.” Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NewSTART.
Rojansky, Matthew. 2013. “Russia and Strategic Stability.” In Strategic Stability: Contending Interpretations. eds. Elbridge A. Colby and Michael S. Gerson 295–342. Carlisle: US Army War College.
Russian Federation Ministry of Defense. 2015. “Military-Encyclopedic Dictionary.” http://encyclopedia.mil.ru/encyclopedia.htm.
Sagan, Scott D., and Kenneth Waltz. 2002. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed. New York: W. W. Norton and Co.
Sanger, David E., and William Broad J. 2019. “U.S. to Tell Russia It Is Leaving Landmark I.N.F. Treaty.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/russia-nuclear-arms-treaty-trump-administration.html.
Simikić, Siniša. 2024. „Nuklearna doktrina Rusije-odvraćanje za 21.vek.“ Politeia 14 (28): 63–70. doi: 10.5937/politeia0-55913.
Sivkov, Konstantin. 2015. “Khaltura v otvetnavyzovy.” Voyenno-PromyshlenniyKur’er 4. http://vpk-news.ru/articles/23673.
Sobolevskii, Vladimir, Andrey Protasov and Vadim Sukhorutchenko. 20214. “Planning for the Use of Strategic Weapons.” VoyennayaMysl 7: 9–27.
Sokov, Nikolai. 1999. “Russia’s 2000 Military Doctrine.” Nuclear Threat Initiative. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/russias-2000-military-doctrine/.
The Department of Defense. 2018. “Sumarry of the National Defense Strategy of The United States of America.” https://dod.defense.gov/portals/1/documents/pubs/2018-national-defense-strategy-summary.pdf.
Trofimenko, Henry. 1980. “Changing Attitudes Toward Deterrence.” ACIS Working Paper Center for International and Strategic Affairs. Los Angeles: University of California.
Vukadinović, Radovan. 2004. Međunarodni politički odnosi. Zagreb: Politička kultura.
Евгеньевич, Стерлин Андрей, Протасов Андрей Андреевич, Крейдин Сергей Викторович. 2019. „Современные трансформации концепций и силовых инструментов стратегического сдерживания.“ Военная мысль 8. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sovremennye-transformatsii-kontseptsiy-i-silovyh-instrumentov-strategicheskogo-sderzhivaniya.
Эрнстовна, Исаева Ирина, и Скуридин Александр Сергеевич. 2017. „Актуальные вопросы стратегического сдерживания в военной сфере. Бюллетень науки и практики.” 10 (23) https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/aktualnye-voprosy-strategicheskogo-sderzhivaniya-v-voennoy-sfere.
Подберезкин Иванович Алексеј. 2016. „Стратегия национальной безопасности России в XXI веке.”
Путин, Владимир. 2016. „Послание Президента Федеральному Собранию.“ 1. декабря 2016. http://kremlin.ru/.
Савельев, Александр. 2008. „Стратегические отношения России и США.” Международная жизнь 11. https://interaffairs.ru/jauthor/material/1600.
Сергејевич, Семченков Андреј. 2016. Предотвращение войн: советский опыт//Дискурс-Пи. 2016. №1;
Указ Президента Российской Федерации. 1993. „№ 1833 Об Основных положениях военной доктрины Российской Федерации от 02.11.1993.”
Указ Президента РФ. 2000. „N 706 Об утверждении Военной доктрины Российской Федерации от 21.04.2000.”
Указ Президента РФ. 2010. „N 146 О Военной доктрине Российской Федерации от 05.02.2010.”
Указ Президента Российской Федерации. 2020. „№ 355. Об Основах государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания от 02.06.2020.”
Указ Президента Российской Федерации. 2024. „№ 991 Об утверждении Основ государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания от 19.11.2024.”
