ВОЈНЕ ИНТЕРВЕНЦИЈЕ У УНИПОЛАРНОСТИ: ПОУКЕ ЗА БЕЗБЕДНОСНУ ДИНАМИКУ ОДНОСА САД И КИНЕ ЗА ДРУГУ ТРАМПОВУ АДМИНИСТРАЦИЈУ
Sažetak
Хуманитарни интервенционизам, обележје униполарне ере после Хладног рата, био је нашироко дебатован као механизам за решавање наводног кршења људских права и очување глобалне безбедности. Укорењене у принципима као што је одговорност за заштиту (R2P), ове интервенције су се често укрштале са стратешким интересима доминантних сила, посебно Сједињених Америчких Држава. Овај рад испитује развојну динамику политике војног интервенционизма унутар променљивог геополитичког пејзажа, фокусирајући се на исходе по америчко-кинеске односе током другог председничког мандата Доналда Трампа. Надовезујући се на историјске преседане и теоријске оквире, студија анализира како би САД могле да се позову на хуманитарну интервенцију као средство двоструке намене – утврђивање моралног вођства док се супротставља растућем утицају Кине у регионима од стратешког интереса. Додатно, рад истражује изазове примене лекција из интервенција у униполарној ери на свет који све више дефинише мултиполарност и стратешко ривалство. Контекстуализацијом Трамповог асертивног спољнополитичког става и испитивањем потенцијалних оправдања за интервенционизам, овај рад нуди критички увид у то како би хуманитарни мотиви могли да буду у складу са ширим геополитичким циљевима или их маскирају. Ова анализа анализира безбедносне импликације будућих односа САД и Кине, доприносећи ширем дискурсу о етици, моћи и глобалном управљању.
Reference
The U.S. Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization China [US NATO]. 2021. “Remarks by President Biden on Afghanistan.” The U.S. Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. August 16, 2021. https://nato.usmission.gov/remarks-by-president-biden-on-afghanistan.
Chase, Michael S., Cristina L. Garafola, and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga. 2018. “Chinese perceptions of and responses to US conventional military power.” Asian Security 14 (2): 136–154. DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2017.1301931.
Chesterman, Simon. 2011. “‘Leading from Behind’: The Responsibility to Protect, the Obama Doctrine, and Humanitarian Intervention after Libya”. Ethics & International Affairs 25(3): 279-285. DOI: 10.1017/S0892679411000190.
Dawson, Grant. 2022. “‘No future for Libya with Gaddafi’: Classical realism, status and revenge in the UK intervention in Libya.” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 35 (3): 357–374. DOI: 10.1080/09557571.2021.1888879.
Harding, Brian. 2019. “The Trump administration’s free and open Indo-Pacific approach.” In Southeast Asian Affairs, eds. Daljit Singh and Malcolm Cook, 61–68. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing. DOI: 10.1355/9789814843164-006.
Hsiao, Russell. 2024. “Taiwan Policy under the Second Trump Administration.” Global Taiwan Institute. November 27, 2024. https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/11/taiwan-policy-under-the-second-trump-administration.
Jansen, Marenne, and Eric-Hans Kramer. 2023. “The Future of the Comprehensive Approach as a Strategy for Intervention.” In Violence in Extreme Conditions: Ethical Challenges in Military Practice, eds. Eric-Hans Kramer and Tine Molendijk, 87–98. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Kavanagh, Jennifer, Bryan Frederick, Alexandra Stark, Nathan Chandler, Meagan L. Smith, Matthew Povlock, Lynn E. Davis, and Edward Geist. 2019. Characteristics of successful US military interventions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.
Kerton-Johnson, Nicholas. 2010. Justifying America's wars: the conduct and practice of US military intervention. New York: Routledge.
Kessler, Glen. 2024. “Trump falsely claims no terrorist attacks, no wars during his presidency.” The Washington Post. January 13, 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/13/trump-falsely-claims-no-terrorist-attacks-no-wars-during-his-presidency/.
Kindleberger, Charles. 1974. The Formation of Financial centers. A study in Comparative Economic History. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Lin, Ying Yu and Tzu-Hao Liao. 2024. “The Resumption of China-US Military Dialogue and the Limits of the Thaw.” The Diplomat. October 25, 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/the-resumption-of-china-us-military-dialogue-and-the-limits-of-the-thaw.
Matthews, William. 2024. “Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy will accelerate China’s push for global leadership.” Chatam house. November 14, 2024. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/trumps-america-first-foreign-policy-will-accelerate-chinas-push-global-leadership.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs The People’s Republic of China [MFA PRC]. 2024. “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian's Regular Press Conference.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs The People’s Republic of China. July 12, 2024. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202407/t20240730_11463258.html.
Mitić, Aleksandar. 2024. “A decade of Serbia’s EU accession process: implications for Sino-Serbian political relations.” In Proceedings from the 4th Dialogues on China international conference, eds. Aleksandar Mitić and Katarina Zakić, 511–527. Belgrade: Institute of International Politics and Economics.
Pant, Harsh. V., and Kashish Parpiani. 2020. “US Engagement in the Indo-Pacific: An Assessment of the Trump Era.” Observer Research Foundation. October 28, 2020. orfonline.org/research/us-engagement-in-the-indo-pacific-an-assessment-of-the-trump-era.
Rauta, Vladimir. 2020. “Proxy warfare and the future of conflict: Take two.” The RUSI Journal 165 (2): 1–10. DOI: 10.1080/03071847.2020.1736437.
Russell, Clyde. 2024. “Where will Trump and China drive commodities in 2025?” Reuters. December 19, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/where-will-trump-china-drive-commodities-2025-russell-2024-12-19.
Saunders, Phillip C., and Julia G. Bowie. 2016. “US-China military relations: competition and cooperation.” Journal of Strategic Studies 39 (5–6): 662–684. DOI: 10.1080/01402390.2016.1221818.
Schweller, Randall L., and Xiaoyu Pu. 2011. “After unipolarity: China's visions of international order in an era of US decline.” International security 36 (1): 41–72. DOI: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00044.
Scobell, Andrew. 2018. “The South China Sea and US-China Rivalry.” Political Science Quarterly 133 (2): 199–224. DOI: 10.1162/ISEC_a_00044.
Seybolt, Taylor B. 2007. Humanitarian military intervention: the conditions for success and failure. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Smith, William. 2007. “Anticipating a cosmopolitan future: The case of humanitarian military intervention.” International Politics 44 (1): 72–89. DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.ip.8800159.
Stanojević, Nataša, and Katarin Zakić. 2023. “China and deglobalization of the world economy.” National Accounting Review 5 (1): 67–85. DOI: 10.3934/NAR.2023005.
Stekić, Nenad. Z. 2021. „Vojne intervencije i postkonfliktna izgradnja države u eri unipolarnosti: slučaj Savezne Republike Jugoslavije, Avganistana i Iraka.” PhD diss. Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet bezbednosti.
Stekić, Nenad. Z. 2022. “Are the Hawks Watching Closely? Reports on China’s Military Power for the US Congress, 2001–2021.” The Review of International Affairs 73 (3), 33–60. DOI: 10.18485/iipe_ria.2022.73.1186.2.
Sullivan, Patricia L., and Michael T. Koch. 2009. “Military intervention by powerful states, 1945-2003.” Journal of Peace Research 46 (5): 707–718. DOI: 10.1177/0022343309336796.
US Mission to International organization in Geneva. 2024. “US Statement at the Universal Periodic Review of the People's Republic of China.” US Mission to International organization in Geneva. January 23, 2024. https://geneva.usmission.gov/2024/01/23/u-s-statement-at-the-universal-periodic-review-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-english-version.
US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. 2024. “China's Position on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine.” US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. December 12, 2024. https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-position-russias-invasion-ukraine.
White House. 2017. National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Washington: White House.
White House. 2021. “Remarks by President Biden on the Drawdown of US Forces in Afghanistan.” 15.12.2024. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-drawdown-of-u-s-forces-in-afghanistan
Wippman, David. 1995. “Change and Continuity in Legal Justifications for Military Intervention in Internal Conflict.” Columbia Human Rights Law Review 27: 435.
