STRANE DIREKTNE INVESTICIJE KAO IZVOR FINANSIRANJA PRIVREDNOG RAZVOJA ZEMALJA JUGOISTOČNE EVROPE
Ključne reči:
privredni razvoj, izvori finansiranja, strane direktne investicije, domaća štednja, Jugoistočna Evropa
Sažetak
U radu se analiziraju izvori finansiranja privrednog razvoja zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope - Albanije, Bosne i Hercegovine, Bugarske, Crne Gore, Hrvatske, Rumunije, Makedonije i Srbije u periodu od 2009 do 2018. Istraživački fokus rada je sa jedne strane usmeren na analizu stope privrednog rasta, udela domaće štednje i salda tekućeg računa. Sa druge strane, poseban akcenat u analizi se daje podacima o dinamici stranih direktnih investicija. Analaza u radu ukazuje da usled nedostatka domaće štednje i poteškoća sa inostranim zaduživanjem u posmatranom periodu, strane direktne investicije su bile najzastupljeniji izvor finansiranja privrednog i ekonomskog razvoja. Sprovedena analiza za zemlje Jugoistočne Evrope, takođe, pokazuje da je nedostatak domaće štednje uslovio nepovoljnu strukturu tokova stranih direktnih investicija sa krajnjim rezultatom niske stope privrednog rasta. Kada se govori o relevantnosti stranih direktnih investicija za dugoročni privredni razvoj zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope, nameće se zaključak da je potrebna aktivnija politika razvoja koja je usmerena na povećanje udela domaće štednje u bruto društvenom proizvodu kao i rast domaćih investicija. Jednostavno, danas u ovim okolnostima je nerealno očekivati da to budu samo strana ulaganja.
Ključne reči: privredni razvoj, izvori finansiranja, strane direktne investicije, domaća štednja, Jugoistočna Evropa
Reference
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Aghion, P., Howitt, P. (2009). The Economics of Growth. MIT Press.
Alfaro, L., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Volosovych, V. (2008). Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? An empirical investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), pp 347-368.
Agrawal, P., Sahoo, P., Radjan, D.K. (2010). Savings behavior in India: Co- integration and causality evidence. Singapore Economic Review, 55(2), 273-295.
Andrei, E.A., Petrescu-Huidumac, E.C. (2013). Saving and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Euro area countries. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 20(7), 43-58.
Anoruo, E., Ahmad, Y. (2001). Causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth: Evidence from seven African countries. African Development Review, 13(2), 238–249.
Adžić, S.J., Tošković D.J. (2015). Analiza trenda kretanja priliva stranih direktnih investicija u tranzicionim ekonomijama Zapadnog Balkana. Poslovna Ekonomija, IX(II), 235-258.
Baharumshahl, A.Z., Thanoon, A.M., Rashid,S. (2003). Savings dynamic in Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 13, 827-845.
Basu, P., Chakraborty, C., Reagle, D. (2003). Liberalization, FDI, and Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach. Economic Inquiry, 41, 510- 516.
Budha, B. (2012). A multivariate analysis of savings, investment and growth in Nepal. Internet http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/43346 [Preuzeto 15.03.2020].
Carkovic, M., Levine, R. (2005). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth? In Does foreign direct investment promote development? ed. Moran, H.T., Graham, M.E., Blomström, M., 195–220. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
Chanda, A.L.A., Ozcan, K.S., Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 64, 89–112.
Chowdhury, A., Mavrotas, G. (2006). FDI and growth: What causes what?. The World Economy, 29(1), 9-19.
Cvetanović, S., Despotović, D. (2014). Izvori finansiranja razvoja zemalja Zapadnog Balkana u periodu 2001-2012. godine. Ekonomika, 60(3), 59-66.
Cvetanović, S., Mladenović, I. (2014). Ekonomija kapitala i finaniranje razvoja. Niš: Sopstveno izdanje
Ćorović, E. (2019). Strukturni problemi finansiranja privrednog rasta Republike Srbije. Naučne Publikacije Državnog Univerziteta u Novom Pazaru Serija B: Društvene & humanistiĉke nauke, 2(1), 28-45.
Greenidge, K., Miller, C. (2010). Causal chains between savings investment and growth: Evidence for Latin America and the Caribbean. Business, Finance & Economics in Emerging Economies, 5(2), 121-170.
Gulmez, A., Yardımcıoglu, F. (2013). BRICS ülkeleri ile Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesinde ulusal ve yabancı tasarrufların etkisi: Panel veri analizi. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 14(1, 47-68.
Hong, D:V., A Vo, The A., Zhang, Z. (2019a). Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12, 12.
E. (2018). Privredni rast i institucionalna tranzicija Republike Srbije. Ekonomski horizonti, 20(2), 95-108.
Jangili, R. (2011). Causal relationship between saving, investment and economic growth for India – What does the relation imply? Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 32(1), 25-39.
Kolasa, A., Liberda, B. (2014). Determinants of saving in Poland: Are they different than in other OECD countries?. Working Papers No. 13/2014 (130), University of Warsaw.
Konings, J. (2001). The effects of foreign direct investment on domestic firms. Economics of Transportation, 9, 619-33.
Koojaroenprasit, S. (2012). The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth: A case study of South Korea. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3, 8-19.
Kovačević, R. (2004). Uticaj stranih direktnih investicija na privredni rast iskustva zemalja Evropske Unije. Biblid, LVI(4), 409-446.
Magnus, B., Kokko, A. (2002). The Economics of International Investment Incentives. Internet https://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investment-policy/2487874.pdf [Preuzeto 15.03. 2020.].
Massa, I. (2011). Impact of Multilateral Devlopment Financial Institutions on Economic Growth. Overseas Development Institute, 1-23.
Ministarstvo finansija Republike Srbije, (2019).), Tekuća makroekonomska kretanja, Realni sektor https://www.mfin.gov.rs/
Moura, R., Forte, R. (2010). The effects of foreign direct investment on the host country economic growth-theory and empirical evidence. FEP Working Papers No. 390, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
Nguyen, Ha M., Bui, H.N., Vo. H.D. (2019). The Nexus between Economic Integration and Growth: Application to Vietnam. Annals of Financial Economics, 14, 1950041.
Nistor, P. (2014). FDI and economic growth, the case of Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15, 577-582.
Odhiambo, N.M. (2009). Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, 708-718.
Omowunmi, F.O. (2014). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: A case of Nigeria. Bharati J. Manag. Res, 4, 1–20.
Patra, S. K., Murthy, D. S., Kuruva, M. B., Mohanty, A. (2017). Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis. Economia, 18(3), 380-391.
Pješčića, V. (2010). Značaj domaće štednje za novi model privrednog rasta u Srbiji. https://www.nbs.rs/internet/latinica/15/mediji/govori/VP-G-20101029.html), [Preuzeto 15.04. 2020.].
Popović, G., Savić, M. (2016). Uticaj stranih direktnih investicija na ekonomski rast u Evropskoj Uniji. Međunarodna Ekonomija, Internet http://oikosinstitut.org/wp- content/uploads/2016/11/popovic.pdf [Preuzeto 15.03.2020.].
Raheem, I.D., Ogebe, J.O. (2014). External financial flows, policies and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Global and Scientific Issues, 2(4), 21-32.
Roman, D.M., Padureanu, A. (2012). Models of foreign direct investments influence on economic growth: Evidence from Romania. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 3, 25-29.
Saglam, Y. (2017). FDI and Economic Growth in European Transition Economies: Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Yasar University, 12(46), 123-135.
Shahbaz, M., Rahman, M.M. (2010). Foreign capital inflows-growth nexus and role of domestic financial sector: An ARDL co-integration approach for Pakistan. Journal of Economic Research, 15, 207–31.
Stojanovic, D., Ilic, B., Mihajlovic, D. (2017). Strane direktne investicije u ostvarivanju ciljeva održivog razvoja lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Ecologica, 86, 265- 271.
Stojanović, D. (2018). Strane direktne investicije, izvoz i ekonomski rast u Srbiji. Poslovna ekonomija, XII, (1), 54–72.
Tahir, M.D., Ögüt, A., Mucuk, M. (2014). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. Paper presented at International Academic Conferences, Prague, Czech Republic.
Tang, C.F., Ch’ng, S.K. (2012). A multivariate analysis of the nexus between savings and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 Economies. Margin-The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 6(3), 385-406.
Tang, C.F., Chua, Y.S. (2012). The savings growth Nexus for the Malaysian economy: A view through rolling sub-samples. Applied Economics, 44, 4173-4185.
Tang, C.F., Lean, H.H. (2013). The role of savings on economic growth in Malaysia: A view from generalized variance decomposition analysis. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 47(3), 199-214.
Tang, C.F., Tan, W.B. (2014). A revalidation of the savings–growth Nexus in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, 370–377.
Verma, R. (2007). Savings, investment and growth in India. South Asia Economic Journal, 8(1), 87-98.
World Bank, (2018). World Development Indicators (WDI). Internet http://databank.worl dbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development- indicators [Preuzeto 05.03.2020.]
Aghion, P., Howitt, P. (2009). The Economics of Growth. MIT Press.
Alfaro, L., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Volosovych, V. (2008). Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? An empirical investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), pp 347-368.
Agrawal, P., Sahoo, P., Radjan, D.K. (2010). Savings behavior in India: Co- integration and causality evidence. Singapore Economic Review, 55(2), 273-295.
Andrei, E.A., Petrescu-Huidumac, E.C. (2013). Saving and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Euro area countries. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 20(7), 43-58.
Anoruo, E., Ahmad, Y. (2001). Causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth: Evidence from seven African countries. African Development Review, 13(2), 238–249.
Adžić, S.J., Tošković D.J. (2015). Analiza trenda kretanja priliva stranih direktnih investicija u tranzicionim ekonomijama Zapadnog Balkana. Poslovna Ekonomija, IX(II), 235-258.
Baharumshahl, A.Z., Thanoon, A.M., Rashid,S. (2003). Savings dynamic in Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 13, 827-845.
Basu, P., Chakraborty, C., Reagle, D. (2003). Liberalization, FDI, and Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach. Economic Inquiry, 41, 510- 516.
Budha, B. (2012). A multivariate analysis of savings, investment and growth in Nepal. Internet http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/43346 [Preuzeto 15.03.2020].
Carkovic, M., Levine, R. (2005). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth? In Does foreign direct investment promote development? ed. Moran, H.T., Graham, M.E., Blomström, M., 195–220. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
Chanda, A.L.A., Ozcan, K.S., Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 64, 89–112.
Chowdhury, A., Mavrotas, G. (2006). FDI and growth: What causes what?. The World Economy, 29(1), 9-19.
Cvetanović, S., Despotović, D. (2014). Izvori finansiranja razvoja zemalja Zapadnog Balkana u periodu 2001-2012. godine. Ekonomika, 60(3), 59-66.
Cvetanović, S., Mladenović, I. (2014). Ekonomija kapitala i finaniranje razvoja. Niš: Sopstveno izdanje
Ćorović, E. (2019). Strukturni problemi finansiranja privrednog rasta Republike Srbije. Naučne Publikacije Državnog Univerziteta u Novom Pazaru Serija B: Društvene & humanistiĉke nauke, 2(1), 28-45.
Greenidge, K., Miller, C. (2010). Causal chains between savings investment and growth: Evidence for Latin America and the Caribbean. Business, Finance & Economics in Emerging Economies, 5(2), 121-170.
Gulmez, A., Yardımcıoglu, F. (2013). BRICS ülkeleri ile Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesinde ulusal ve yabancı tasarrufların etkisi: Panel veri analizi. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 14(1, 47-68.
Hong, D:V., A Vo, The A., Zhang, Z. (2019a). Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12, 12.
E. (2018). Privredni rast i institucionalna tranzicija Republike Srbije. Ekonomski horizonti, 20(2), 95-108.
Jangili, R. (2011). Causal relationship between saving, investment and economic growth for India – What does the relation imply? Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 32(1), 25-39.
Kolasa, A., Liberda, B. (2014). Determinants of saving in Poland: Are they different than in other OECD countries?. Working Papers No. 13/2014 (130), University of Warsaw.
Konings, J. (2001). The effects of foreign direct investment on domestic firms. Economics of Transportation, 9, 619-33.
Koojaroenprasit, S. (2012). The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth: A case study of South Korea. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3, 8-19.
Kovačević, R. (2004). Uticaj stranih direktnih investicija na privredni rast iskustva zemalja Evropske Unije. Biblid, LVI(4), 409-446.
Magnus, B., Kokko, A. (2002). The Economics of International Investment Incentives. Internet https://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investment-policy/2487874.pdf [Preuzeto 15.03. 2020.].
Massa, I. (2011). Impact of Multilateral Devlopment Financial Institutions on Economic Growth. Overseas Development Institute, 1-23.
Ministarstvo finansija Republike Srbije, (2019).), Tekuća makroekonomska kretanja, Realni sektor https://www.mfin.gov.rs/
Moura, R., Forte, R. (2010). The effects of foreign direct investment on the host country economic growth-theory and empirical evidence. FEP Working Papers No. 390, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
Nguyen, Ha M., Bui, H.N., Vo. H.D. (2019). The Nexus between Economic Integration and Growth: Application to Vietnam. Annals of Financial Economics, 14, 1950041.
Nistor, P. (2014). FDI and economic growth, the case of Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15, 577-582.
Odhiambo, N.M. (2009). Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, 708-718.
Omowunmi, F.O. (2014). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: A case of Nigeria. Bharati J. Manag. Res, 4, 1–20.
Patra, S. K., Murthy, D. S., Kuruva, M. B., Mohanty, A. (2017). Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis. Economia, 18(3), 380-391.
Pješčića, V. (2010). Značaj domaće štednje za novi model privrednog rasta u Srbiji. https://www.nbs.rs/internet/latinica/15/mediji/govori/VP-G-20101029.html), [Preuzeto 15.04. 2020.].
Popović, G., Savić, M. (2016). Uticaj stranih direktnih investicija na ekonomski rast u Evropskoj Uniji. Međunarodna Ekonomija, Internet http://oikosinstitut.org/wp- content/uploads/2016/11/popovic.pdf [Preuzeto 15.03.2020.].
Raheem, I.D., Ogebe, J.O. (2014). External financial flows, policies and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Global and Scientific Issues, 2(4), 21-32.
Roman, D.M., Padureanu, A. (2012). Models of foreign direct investments influence on economic growth: Evidence from Romania. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 3, 25-29.
Saglam, Y. (2017). FDI and Economic Growth in European Transition Economies: Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Yasar University, 12(46), 123-135.
Shahbaz, M., Rahman, M.M. (2010). Foreign capital inflows-growth nexus and role of domestic financial sector: An ARDL co-integration approach for Pakistan. Journal of Economic Research, 15, 207–31.
Stojanovic, D., Ilic, B., Mihajlovic, D. (2017). Strane direktne investicije u ostvarivanju ciljeva održivog razvoja lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Ecologica, 86, 265- 271.
Stojanović, D. (2018). Strane direktne investicije, izvoz i ekonomski rast u Srbiji. Poslovna ekonomija, XII, (1), 54–72.
Tahir, M.D., Ögüt, A., Mucuk, M. (2014). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. Paper presented at International Academic Conferences, Prague, Czech Republic.
Tang, C.F., Ch’ng, S.K. (2012). A multivariate analysis of the nexus between savings and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 Economies. Margin-The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 6(3), 385-406.
Tang, C.F., Chua, Y.S. (2012). The savings growth Nexus for the Malaysian economy: A view through rolling sub-samples. Applied Economics, 44, 4173-4185.
Tang, C.F., Lean, H.H. (2013). The role of savings on economic growth in Malaysia: A view from generalized variance decomposition analysis. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 47(3), 199-214.
Tang, C.F., Tan, W.B. (2014). A revalidation of the savings–growth Nexus in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 36, 370–377.
Verma, R. (2007). Savings, investment and growth in India. South Asia Economic Journal, 8(1), 87-98.
World Bank, (2018). World Development Indicators (WDI). Internet http://databank.worl dbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development- indicators [Preuzeto 05.03.2020.]
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2021/01/21
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