RAST JAVNOG DUGA KAO POSLEDICA PANDEMIJE COVID-19 U ZEMLJAMA ZAPADNOG BALKANA: SLUČAJ SEVERNE MAKEDONIJE I REPUBLIKE SRBIJE

  • Jovana Kisin Univerzitet Educons
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/poseko20-35315
Ključne reči: javni dug, pandemija, COVID-19, Zapadni Balkan, Severna Makedonija, Republika Srbija

Sažetak


Neposredno pred početak pandemije javni dug država Zapadnog Balkana iznosio je u proseku preko pedeset odsto BDP-a, uz velike oscilacije među zemljama, što je suzilo fiskalni prostor za rešavanje posledica krize COVID-19. Uprkos tome, iako delimično stabilne na pandemijske turbulencije, u zemljama Zapdog Balkana potrebe za zaduživanjem naglo rastu, usled čega se povećavaju i buduće otplate kamata u uslovima uvećanog fiskalnog deficita, javnog duga i smanjene dostupnosti sredstava na finansijskim tržištima. Procenjuje se da će sve sve zemlje regiona beležiti rast javnog duga, dok će največi nivo rasta imati Crna Gora. Zato države Zapadnog Balkana treba na nacionalnom nivou da sprovedu uspešnu fiskalnu konsolidaciju i opreznije fiskalno upravljanje, ali i da obrate pažnju na veća zaduživanja države, i povećanja javnih ulaganja u pandemijskim uslovima. Cilj ovog rada je da analizira trend kretanja javnog duga u uslovima pandemije COVID-19 u zemaljama Zapadnog Balkana, sa posebnim osvrtom na slučaj Severne Makedonije i Republike Srbije. Rad se sastoji iz tri dela. Nakon uvoda, prvi deo rada predstavlja analizu javnog duga u region Zapadnog Balkana. Drugi deo rada analizira javni dug u slučaju Republike Srbije, dok se treći deo rada bavi analizom javniog duga u slučaju Severne Makedonije. Na kraju je dat zaključak po mišljenju autora.

Reference


  1. Bakić, S. (2020). Analysis of the financial account of the Republic of Serbia in the period from 2010-2018. Business economics, 26(1: )66-79.

  2. Економски инситут, Универзитет „Св. Кирил и Методиј“. (2017). Каркатеристики на јавниот долг на Република Македонија. https://www.ek-inst.ukim.edu.mk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Karakteristiki-na-javniot-dolg-za-printanje-20.11.2017.compressed.pdf.

  3. Fiscal Council of the Republic of Serbia (2021). Opinion on the Draft Fiscal Strategy for 2022 with projections for 2023 and 2024. June 2021. http://www.fiskalnisavet.rs/analize-stavovi-predlozi.php.

  4. Filipović, S., Ignjatović, J. (2021). Chinese investments in Central and Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans (original in Serbian). Culture-Polis, 18(45): 73-86.

  5. Government of the Republic of North Macedonia. (2021). 2021-2023 Public Debt Management Strategy of the Republic of North Macedonia (with 2025 prospects). https://finance.gov.mk/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Strategija_2021_2025_EN-.pdf.

  6. Government of the Republic of North Macedonia. (2021a). 2022-2024 Public Debt Management Strategy of the Republic of North Macedonia (with 2026 prospects). https://finance.gov.mk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/STRATEGY-OF-THE-REPUBLIC-OF-NORTH-MACEDONIA_2022_2026.pdf.

  7. Grgić, R. (2010). Menadžment javnih finansija. Banja Luka: Panevropski univerzitet Apeiron.

  8. Hristovska, B. M., Spasova, T. M. (2016). Analysis of Public Debt: Republic of Macedonia, European Commission. http://wings-of-hope.ba/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/D3.4.1.4.-Analysis-on-Public-Debt-Macedonia.pdf.

  9. Ignjatović J., Kisin J., Brajković M. (2020). Export as a trigger of economic growth of the Republic of Serbia. Business Economics, 14(2): 19-37.

  10. Ignjatović, J., Kisin, J., Mashović, M. 2021. Economic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western Balkan region, International scientific conference, Susutainable economic transformation in the post pandemic period, Sremska Kamenica, University Educons, Serbia p. 63-88.

  11. International monetary fund (IMF). (2020a). IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of North Macedonia. January 2020.


https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/01/27/pr2017-north-macedonia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation



  1. International monetary fund (IMF). (2020b). IMF Country Report No. 20/126. April 20.

  2. Jeremić, N., Kamenković, S., Grubišić, Z. (2019). Uporedna analiza poreskih sistema skandinavskih I mediteranskih zemalja. Poslovna ekonomija, 25(2): 1-27.

  3. Jotić, J., Lovre, I. (2013). Platni bilans Srbije – stanje i perspektive, Poslovna ekonomija, 7(2): 111–128.

  4. Kisin, J., Mihić, S. & Ignjatović, J. (2021). Ekonomski apsekti pandemije COVID-19: Slučaj Republike Srbije. Ecologica, 28 (103): 369-377.

  5. Kisin, J., Mihić, S. (2021) Fiskalni trendovi u uslovima pandemije COVID-19: Analiza javnog duga Republike Srbije. Tematski zbornik Poslovanje u periodu pandemije - izazovi i šanse. Beograd: Institut ekonomskih nauka, 2021. str. 1-17. Dostupno na: https://www.library.ien.bg.ac.rs/index.php/zb/article/view/1433/1166

  6. Kisin J., Ignjatovic J. (2020), COVID-19: Analysis of the economic mitigation measures taken by Serbia, International scientific conference “Economic aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic: How to survive today and cope with tomorrow”, Educons University, Sremska Kamenica, pp. 35-37.

  7. Ковачевић, М., Стевовић, Б. М. (2019). Трендови: Модел макроекономских пројекција за тестирање дугорочне одрживости дуга и перформанси раста, 2019–2030. Београд: Републички завод за статистику.

  8. Madžar, Lj. (2019). Državni dug kao ekonomski i društveni problem - Alternativna viđenja: iluzije, zablude i manipulacije. Zbornik radova Dug i (ne)razvoj. Beograd: Institut društvenih nauka – Centar za ekonomska istraživanja.

  9. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia - Public Debt Administration. (2021a). Fiscal strategy for 2022 with projections for 2023 and 2024. - http://www.javnidug.gov.rs/

  10. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia - Public Debt Administration, (2021b). Monthly reports. http://www.javnidug.gov.rs/

  11. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia - Public Debt Administration. (2021c). Quarterly report on the situation and structure of public debt. http://www.javnidug.gov.rs/

  12. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of North Macedonia. (2021). 2020 Annual Report on Public Debt Management of the Republic of North Macedonia. International Finance and Public Debt Management Department.


https://finance.gov.mk/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2020-Annual-Report-on-Public-Debt-Management-of-the-Republic-of-North-Macedonia-.pdf.



  1. National Bank of Serbia (NBS). (2021). Macroeconomic Developments in Serbia. Nov. 30. https://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/NBS_site/documents-eng/finansijska-stabilnost/presentation_invest.pdf

  2. National Bank of the Republic North Macedonia. (2020). Annual Report. https://www.nbrm.mk/content/Annual_Report_2020.pdf.

  3. Obradović-Matijašević, J., Ilić, D. (2018). Krivična dela privrede-krivična regulativa kao značajan faktor privredne stabilnosti. Poslovna ekonomija, 22(1): 92-109.

  4. Open economy. (2021). Data. https://javendolg.open.finance.gov.mk/en

  5. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2021). Quarterly National Accounts - Quarterly Gross Domestic Product, Q3 2021. http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/HTML/G20211333.html

  6. Trivić, B. (2019). Svetska banka o Zapadnom Balkanu: Ekonomija usporava. Radio slobodna Evropa. Oktobar 08. https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/svetska-banka-o-zapadnom-balkanu-ekonomska-aktivnost-usporava/30205559.html

  7. Vukićević, J. (2020). Zašto se Crnoj Gori predviđa najveći rast javnog duga na Zapadnom Balkanu? Radio slobodna Evropa. Oktobar 15.


https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/za%C5%A1to-se-crnoj-gori-predvi%C4%91a-najve%C4%87i-rast-javnog-duga-na-zapadnom-balkanu-/30894955.html



  1. World Bank (2021a). The World bank in Serbia, October 11.


https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/serbia/overview



  1. World Bank (2021b). Montenegro macroeconomic data. November 30.


https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/800101492021928924/data-mne.pdf



  1. World Bank (2021c). Serbia macroeconomic data. November 30.


https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/121461492021931547/data-srb.pdf



  1. World Bank. 2021. Fiskalna politika za izravnavanje krive: kako ograničiti i ublažiti uticaj krize. Public Disclosure Authorized.


https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/342801591288854080/pdf/The-Economic-and-Social-Impact-of-COVID-19-Fiscal-Policy.pdf


 


Internet:


https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/134121492021919973/data-alb.pdf


https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/541911492021922770/data-bih.pdf


https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/260081492021928320/data-mkd.pdf


 


 

Objavljeno
2022/05/20
Broj časopisa
Vol. 20 Br. 2 (2021): Poslovna ekonomija
Rubrika
Originalni naučni članak