TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER - AWRY? ASSIGNMENT PROBLEM IN DISINFLATION ENDEAVOURS
Ključne reči:
Ključne reči: (dez)inflacija, monetarna i fiskalna politika, akumulirani dug, fiskalna teorija nivoa cena, povećanje kamatnih stopa JEL klasifikacija: E31, E62, E63, H30, H68
Sažetak
Rezime: Prevazilaženje makroekonomskih prepreka kao zanat pretpostavlja da su grane vlasti gotovo kontinuirano zadužene raznolikim zadacima, tj. određenim zaduženjima vezanim za ograničen skup resursa i talenata u posedu organizacionih podjedinica sa pravima odlučivanja u korektivnom kreiranju politike. Iako su nas antiinflacioni programi u otvorenim privredamaodavno podsetili da jedan zadatak ne mora biti dodeljen isključivo jednom jedinom resursu, preovlađujuće uverenje u tradicionalnoj makroekonomskoj misli do danas glasi da je monetarna politika i dalje glavna odgovorna i za izazivanje i zaustavljanje štetne inflacione spirale. Ovaj rad, međutim, prati novi talas literature koji dvostruko dovodi u pitanje pomenuto uverenje. Čini se da su uobičajeni osumnjičeni za nedavni porast inflacije širom sveta proglašeni nevinim, pa stoga stojimo uz još uvek retke ekonomiste koji smatraju da inflacija u modernom nerikardijanskom okruženju, kada je konačno izmakla kontroli, predstavlja tek legitimnu i neizbežnu posledicu neodgovorne fiskalne politike i neodrživo visokih javnih (i privatnih) dugova. Štaviše, zbog poznatog, iako u rikverc posmatranog Fišerovog efekta, posredno monetarno ograničenje kroz povećanje kamatnih stopa pokazuje se kao nesigurna, prilično kontroverzna reakcija centralnih banaka kada je u pitanju razumno brza i pouzdana preferencija u pogledu ishoda ovakvih dezinflacionih poduhvata.
Reference
REFERENCES
• Аgarwal, R.-Kimball, M.(2022), «The Future of Inflation Part I: Will Inflation remain High?», Finance&Development Occasional Paper, IMF, Washington DC, April 7th.
• Azizirad, M. (2023), "Fisher vs Keynes: Does an Interest Rate Hike Cause Inflation to Increase or Decrease?", Simon Fraser University, mimeo.
• Ballabriga, F. (2004), "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level", ESADE, Dept. of Economics, Universitat Ramon Llull, April, mimeo.
• Banerjee, R.-Boctor, V.-Mehrotra, A.-Zampolli, F. (2023), "Fiscal Sources of Inflation Risk in EMDEs: The Role of the External Chanell", BIS Working Paper #1110, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, July.
• Bassetto, M. (2006), "Fiscal Theory of the Price Level", The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, mimeo.
• Barro, R.-Bianchi, F. (2023), "Fiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries: 2020-2022", NBER Working Paper #31838, Cambridge, MA, November.
• Bernanke, B.-Blanchard, O. (2023), "What caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?", Hutchins Centre Working Paper #86, Brookings Institution, June.
• Blanchard, O. (2022), "Beyond the current Fight against Inflation: Fiscal Policy under low Rates", Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 1st, mimeo.
• Bohn, H. (1998), "The Behaviour of US Public Debt and Deficits", Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 113, pp. 949-964.
• Brandao-Marques, L.-Casiraghi, M.-Gelos, G.-Harrison, O.-Kamber, G. (2023), "Is High Debt constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations", IMF Working Paper #143, June.
• Buiter, W. (2002), "The Fiscal Theory of Price Level: A Critique", The Economic Journal Vol. 112 (July), pp. 459-480.
• Buiter, W.-Sibert, A. (2018), "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of Price Level- One last Time", Economics Vol. 12 Issue 1, pp. 1-56.
• Canzoneri, M.-Cumby, R.-Diba, B. (2001), "Is the Price Level determined by the Need of Fiscal Solvency", American Economic Review Vol. 91 Issue 5, pp. 1221-1238.
• Cochrane, J. (2023), «The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level», Princeton University Press, NJ, passim.
• Cochrane, J. (2023*),"Interest Rates and Inflation", Grumpy Economist Blog, August, mimeo.
• Croitoru, L. (2023), "How Inflation is a Policy Nowadays", Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, No. 68, E, pp. 5-19.
• Eurostat (2023), "«Provision of deficit and debt data for 2022 – first notification», Euroindicators 47, April 21st, mimeo.
• Ferguson, T.-Storm, S. (2023), "Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy", International Journal of Political Economy, Volume 52, Issue 1, pp. 1-44, Taylor&Francis, April.
• Fix, B. (2023), "Interest Rates and Inflation: Knives Out", Economics from the Top Down, February 19th, mimeo.
• Issing, O. (2023), «Can the ECB escape its own Trap?», Project Syndicate, June 7th, mimeo.
• Konczal, M. (2023), "Inflation in 2023: Causes, Progress and Solutions", Testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability", March, mimeo.
• Korinek, A. -Stiglitz, J. (2022), «Macroeconomic Stabilisation for a Post-Pandemic World: Revising the Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix and Correcting Macroeconomic Externalities», Hutchins Centre Working Paper #78, Brookings Institution, August.
• Kose, M.A.-Ohnsorge, F.-Ha, J. (2022), "From Stagflation to Debt Crisis", VoxEU and Centre for Economic Policy Research, 12th of July, mimeo.
• Leeper, E. (1991), "Equilibria under 'Active' and 'Passive' Monetary Policies", Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 27 Issue 1, pp. 129-147.
• Lubik, T. (2022), "Analysing Fiscal Policy matters more than ever: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Inflation", Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief No. 22, September.
• Malovic, M. (2014), "Money Theory and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy", Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade.
• Malovic, M.-Petrovic, V. (2023), "Political Economy of Disinflation: The Case of EMU", (in Serbian), EconBiz International Conference Proceedings, University of E. Sarajevo, forthcoming.
• McCallum, B.-Nelson, E. (2006), "Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences", NBER Working Paper #12089, Cambridge, MA, March.
• Nersisyan, Y.-Randall Wray, L. (2022), "What's causing Accelerating Inflation: Pandemic or Policy Response?", Levy Economics Institute Working Paper #1003, Bard College, Annadale-on-Hudson, NY, March.
• Оbstfeld, M. (2022), «Emerging-market and Developing Economies need Support amid rising Interest Rates», Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 6th, mimeo.
• Rogoff, K. (2023), "Higher Interest Rates are here to stay", Project Syndicate, December 5th, mimeo.
• Roubini, N. (2022), "More War means more Inflation", Project Syndicate, December 30th, mimeo.
• Roubini, N. (2022*), “The Unavoidable Crash”, Project Syndicate, December, mimeo.
• Schweitzer, J.-Khattar, R. (2022), "Wages and Employment Do Not Have To Decline To Bring Down Inflation", Centre for American Progress, NY, accessed September 1: https://www.americanprogress.org/article/wages-and-employment-do-not-have-to-decline-to-bring-down-inflation/
• Sims, C. (1994), "A Simple Model for the Study of Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy", Economic Theory Vol. 4, pp. 381-399.
• Spence, M. (2022), "Secular Inflation", Project Syndicate, October 12th, mimeo.
• Spence, M. (2022*), "Is it Time to give up on 1.5C?", Project Syndicate, December 23rd, mimeo.
• Storm, S. (2022), "Inflation in the Time of Corona and War", Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper #185, May 30th.
• Svensson, L. (2013), "“The Possible Unemployment Costs of Average Inflation Below a Credible Target”, NBER Working Paper 19442, Cambridge, MA, September.
• Tanner, E. C. (2019), "Disinflation, External Vulnerability and Fiscal Intransigence: Some Unpleasant Mundellian Arithmetic", Journal of Applied Economics, No 22, Issue 1, pp. 403-436.
• Woodford, M. (1995), "Price Level Determinacy without Control of a Monetary Aggregate", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Vol. 43, pp. 1-46.
• Woodford, M. (2003), "Interest&Prices - Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy", Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
• Аgarwal, R.-Kimball, M.(2022), «The Future of Inflation Part I: Will Inflation remain High?», Finance&Development Occasional Paper, IMF, Washington DC, April 7th.
• Azizirad, M. (2023), "Fisher vs Keynes: Does an Interest Rate Hike Cause Inflation to Increase or Decrease?", Simon Fraser University, mimeo.
• Ballabriga, F. (2004), "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level", ESADE, Dept. of Economics, Universitat Ramon Llull, April, mimeo.
• Banerjee, R.-Boctor, V.-Mehrotra, A.-Zampolli, F. (2023), "Fiscal Sources of Inflation Risk in EMDEs: The Role of the External Chanell", BIS Working Paper #1110, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, July.
• Bassetto, M. (2006), "Fiscal Theory of the Price Level", The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, mimeo.
• Barro, R.-Bianchi, F. (2023), "Fiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries: 2020-2022", NBER Working Paper #31838, Cambridge, MA, November.
• Bernanke, B.-Blanchard, O. (2023), "What caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?", Hutchins Centre Working Paper #86, Brookings Institution, June.
• Blanchard, O. (2022), "Beyond the current Fight against Inflation: Fiscal Policy under low Rates", Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 1st, mimeo.
• Bohn, H. (1998), "The Behaviour of US Public Debt and Deficits", Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 113, pp. 949-964.
• Brandao-Marques, L.-Casiraghi, M.-Gelos, G.-Harrison, O.-Kamber, G. (2023), "Is High Debt constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations", IMF Working Paper #143, June.
• Buiter, W. (2002), "The Fiscal Theory of Price Level: A Critique", The Economic Journal Vol. 112 (July), pp. 459-480.
• Buiter, W.-Sibert, A. (2018), "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of Price Level- One last Time", Economics Vol. 12 Issue 1, pp. 1-56.
• Canzoneri, M.-Cumby, R.-Diba, B. (2001), "Is the Price Level determined by the Need of Fiscal Solvency", American Economic Review Vol. 91 Issue 5, pp. 1221-1238.
• Cochrane, J. (2023), «The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level», Princeton University Press, NJ, passim.
• Cochrane, J. (2023*),"Interest Rates and Inflation", Grumpy Economist Blog, August, mimeo.
• Croitoru, L. (2023), "How Inflation is a Policy Nowadays", Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, No. 68, E, pp. 5-19.
• Eurostat (2023), "«Provision of deficit and debt data for 2022 – first notification», Euroindicators 47, April 21st, mimeo.
• Ferguson, T.-Storm, S. (2023), "Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy", International Journal of Political Economy, Volume 52, Issue 1, pp. 1-44, Taylor&Francis, April.
• Fix, B. (2023), "Interest Rates and Inflation: Knives Out", Economics from the Top Down, February 19th, mimeo.
• Issing, O. (2023), «Can the ECB escape its own Trap?», Project Syndicate, June 7th, mimeo.
• Konczal, M. (2023), "Inflation in 2023: Causes, Progress and Solutions", Testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability", March, mimeo.
• Korinek, A. -Stiglitz, J. (2022), «Macroeconomic Stabilisation for a Post-Pandemic World: Revising the Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix and Correcting Macroeconomic Externalities», Hutchins Centre Working Paper #78, Brookings Institution, August.
• Kose, M.A.-Ohnsorge, F.-Ha, J. (2022), "From Stagflation to Debt Crisis", VoxEU and Centre for Economic Policy Research, 12th of July, mimeo.
• Leeper, E. (1991), "Equilibria under 'Active' and 'Passive' Monetary Policies", Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 27 Issue 1, pp. 129-147.
• Lubik, T. (2022), "Analysing Fiscal Policy matters more than ever: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and Inflation", Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief No. 22, September.
• Malovic, M. (2014), "Money Theory and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy", Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade.
• Malovic, M.-Petrovic, V. (2023), "Political Economy of Disinflation: The Case of EMU", (in Serbian), EconBiz International Conference Proceedings, University of E. Sarajevo, forthcoming.
• McCallum, B.-Nelson, E. (2006), "Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences", NBER Working Paper #12089, Cambridge, MA, March.
• Nersisyan, Y.-Randall Wray, L. (2022), "What's causing Accelerating Inflation: Pandemic or Policy Response?", Levy Economics Institute Working Paper #1003, Bard College, Annadale-on-Hudson, NY, March.
• Оbstfeld, M. (2022), «Emerging-market and Developing Economies need Support amid rising Interest Rates», Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 6th, mimeo.
• Rogoff, K. (2023), "Higher Interest Rates are here to stay", Project Syndicate, December 5th, mimeo.
• Roubini, N. (2022), "More War means more Inflation", Project Syndicate, December 30th, mimeo.
• Roubini, N. (2022*), “The Unavoidable Crash”, Project Syndicate, December, mimeo.
• Schweitzer, J.-Khattar, R. (2022), "Wages and Employment Do Not Have To Decline To Bring Down Inflation", Centre for American Progress, NY, accessed September 1: https://www.americanprogress.org/article/wages-and-employment-do-not-have-to-decline-to-bring-down-inflation/
• Sims, C. (1994), "A Simple Model for the Study of Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy", Economic Theory Vol. 4, pp. 381-399.
• Spence, M. (2022), "Secular Inflation", Project Syndicate, October 12th, mimeo.
• Spence, M. (2022*), "Is it Time to give up on 1.5C?", Project Syndicate, December 23rd, mimeo.
• Storm, S. (2022), "Inflation in the Time of Corona and War", Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper #185, May 30th.
• Svensson, L. (2013), "“The Possible Unemployment Costs of Average Inflation Below a Credible Target”, NBER Working Paper 19442, Cambridge, MA, September.
• Tanner, E. C. (2019), "Disinflation, External Vulnerability and Fiscal Intransigence: Some Unpleasant Mundellian Arithmetic", Journal of Applied Economics, No 22, Issue 1, pp. 403-436.
• Woodford, M. (1995), "Price Level Determinacy without Control of a Monetary Aggregate", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Vol. 43, pp. 1-46.
• Woodford, M. (2003), "Interest&Prices - Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy", Princeton University Press, New Jersey.
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2025/01/08
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