GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE UK AND NIGERIA: TRIGGER OF REGIME CHANGE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY ANALYSIS
Sažetak
Ова студија примењује модел регресије прага да би се истражио утицај неизвесности на незапосленост у Нигерији и Уједињеном Краљевству са подацима од 1970. до 2021. Емпиријски резултати показују значајан ефекат прага неизвесности на незапосленост. Процењена вредност утицаја прага глобалне неизвесности на незапосленост знатно је већа у Нигерији него у Великој Британији. Процењена вредност окидача за Нигерију и УК је 0,421 и 0,093, респективно. Међутим, утицај се разликује по величини. Иако је испод граничне вредности од 0,093, утицај је већи у Великој Британији него у Нигерији, али обрнуто је изнад овог прага. Ово претпоставља улогу и утицај чврстог формулисања и спровођења политике између две земље. Стопа незапослености је нижа у Великој Британији него у Нигерији. Коначно, однос између глобалне неизвесности и незапослености је линеаран за Нигерију и позитиван. Међутим, за УК је потврђен нелинеарни и обрнути однос у облику слова У. Постаје императив да се светска неизвесност угради у формулисање будуће политике владе ако би се ублажили утицаји хирова неизвесности на макроекономску стабилност и флуктуације пословног циклуса.
Reference
Ahir, H., Bloom, N. and Furceri, D. (2018). The World Uncertainty Index (October 29, 2018). SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3275033 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3275033
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2022). The world uncertainty index (No. w29763). National bureau of economic research. https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2023/program/paper/RkheFFTi
Aloui, R., Gupta, R., & Miller, S. M. (2016). Uncertainty and crude oil returns. Energy Economics, 55, 92-100.
Angelini, G., Costantini, M., & Easaw, J. Z. (2018). Uncertainty and spillover effects across the Euro area (No. E2018/15). Cardiff Economics Working Papers.
Arellano, C., Bai, Y., & Kehoe, P. J. (2019). Financial frictions and fluctuations in volatility. Journal of Political Economy, 127(5), 2049-2103.
Babalola, S. J., Saka, J. O., & Adenuga, I. A. (2013). The validity of Okun's law in Nigeria: A difference model approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(12), 1598.
Bachmann, R., & Bayer, C. (2013). ‘Wait-and-See’business cycles?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(6), 704-719.
Bakas, D., & Triantafyllou, A. (2019). Volatility forecasting in commodity markets using macro uncertainty. Energy Economics, 81, 79-94.
Baker, S.R., Bloom, N., and Davis. A.J., (2016). “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1593–1636.
Balakeffi, L. R., Oboh, V., Augustine, U., & Fwangkwal, M. P. (2019). Uncertainties in Global Economic Policy and Nigeria's Export Earnings. International Journal of Business, Economics and Management, 6(1), 23-38.
Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., Kim, W. J., & Kyei, C. (2019). The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea. International Review of Economics & Finance, 59, 150-163.
Basu, S., & Bundick, B. (2017). Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand. Econometrica, 85(3), 937-958.
Bibow, J. (2013). Keynes on monetary policy, finance and uncertainty: Liquidity preference theory and the global financial crisis. Routledge.
Bloom, N. (2009), ‘The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks’, Econometrica 77, 623–685.
Caggiano G. Castelnuovo E and Groshenny N, (2014), Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions, Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, (C), 78-92
Davis, S. J. (2016). An index of global economic policy uncertainty (No. w22740). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Edeme, R. K., Emeka, E. T., & Ogbuabor, J. E. (2024). Global Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Unemployment-Economic Growth Relationship in Nigeria. Journal of Development Policy and Practice, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/24551333231208296
Ferrari-Filho, F., and Octavio A. C. (2005) "The concept of uncertainty in Post Keynesian theory and in institutional economics." Journal of Economic Issues, vol. 39, no. 3, 2005, p. 579+. Gale Academic OneFile, Accessed 30 May 2021.
Folawewo A.O and Adeboje, O.M. (2017). “Macroeconomic Determinants of
Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African
States” African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 197—210, June
Fontaine, I., Razafindravaosolonirina, J., & Didier, L. (2018). Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR. China Economic Review, 51, 1-19.
Fontanari, C., Palumbo, A., & Salvatori, C. (2020). Potential output in theory and practice: A revision and update of Okun's original method. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 54, 247-266.
Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference, Journal of Econometrics, 93, 334-368.
Hansen, B. E. (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica, 68(3), 575-603
Hidalgo, J., Lee, J., & Seo, M. H. (2019). Robust inference for threshold regression models. Journal of Econometrics, 210(2), 291-309.
International Labour Organisation. (2021) ILOSTAT https://ilostat.ilo.org/
International Monetary Fund. (2012). Coping with high debt and sluggish growth. World Economic Outlook. World Economic and Financial Survey.
Ji, Q., Liu, B. Y., Nehler, H., & Uddin, G. S. (2018). Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach. Energy Economics, 76, 115-126.
Jurado, Kyle, Sydney C. Ludvigson, and Serena Ng. 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty." American Economic Review, 105 (3): 1177-1216.
Kandoussi M. and Langot F. (2020). Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics Discussion Paper Series. IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. IZA DP No. 13438.
Kang, W., Ratti, R. A., & Vespignani, J. (2020). Impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies. Applied Economics, 52(22), 2392-2407.
Kurov, A., & Stan, R. (2018). Monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news. Journal of Banking & Finance, 86, 127-142.
Liu, G., & Zhang, C. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China. China Economic Review, 63, 101279.
National Bureau of Statistics (2020) Labor Force Statistics: Unemployment and Underemployment Report (Q4 2020) Retrieved from https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1238
Office of National Statistics: (2021). UNEM04: Unemployment rate retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsz/lms ".
Ozturk, E. O., & Sheng, X. S. (2018). Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty. Journal of international money and finance, 88, 276-295.
Petrosky-Nadeau, N., Zhang, L., & Kuehn, L. A. (2018). Endogenous disasters. American Economic Review, 108(8), 2212-2245.
Pizzinelli, C., Theodoridis, K., & Zanetti, F. (2020). State dependence in labor market fluctuations. International Economic Review, 61(3), 1027-1072.
Schaal E., (2017) “Uncertainty and Unemployment”, November 2017, Econometrica, Vol.85, No.6, pages1675-1721.
Sen, S. (2020). Investment decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 43(2), 267-280.
Shinohara T., Okuda T and Nakajima, J (2020). “Characteristics of uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy” Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-5, Bank of Japan.
Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016Measuring Economic Policy. " Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
Van Robays, I. (2016). Macroeconomic uncertainty and oil price volatility. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(5), 671-693
Wang, G. J., Xie, C., Wen, D., & Zhao, L. (2019). When Bitcoin meets economic policy uncertainty (EPU): Measuring risk spillover effect from EPU to Bitcoin. Finance Research Letters, 31.
Watugala, S. W. (2019). Economic uncertainty, trading activity, and commodity futures volatility. Journal of Futures Markets, 39(8), 921-945.
Wensheng, K., Ratti, R., & Vespignani, J. (2017). Impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies. Tasmanian School of Business and Economics University of Tasmania Discussion Paper Series N 2017-01 retrieved from https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/959829/The-Impact-of-Global-uncertainty-the-global-economy.pdf
World Bank(2021), Youth Unemployment Rate for Nigeria [SLUEM1524ZSNGA], retrieved from
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSNGA, August 19, 2021.
Yi, Su; Xiao-li, An (2018). Application of threshold regression analysis to study the impact of regional technological innovation level on sustainable development. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, 89(), 27–32. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.005
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2022). The world uncertainty index (No. w29763). National bureau of economic research. https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2023/program/paper/RkheFFTi
Aloui, R., Gupta, R., & Miller, S. M. (2016). Uncertainty and crude oil returns. Energy Economics, 55, 92-100.
Angelini, G., Costantini, M., & Easaw, J. Z. (2018). Uncertainty and spillover effects across the Euro area (No. E2018/15). Cardiff Economics Working Papers.
Arellano, C., Bai, Y., & Kehoe, P. J. (2019). Financial frictions and fluctuations in volatility. Journal of Political Economy, 127(5), 2049-2103.
Babalola, S. J., Saka, J. O., & Adenuga, I. A. (2013). The validity of Okun's law in Nigeria: A difference model approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(12), 1598.
Bachmann, R., & Bayer, C. (2013). ‘Wait-and-See’business cycles?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(6), 704-719.
Bakas, D., & Triantafyllou, A. (2019). Volatility forecasting in commodity markets using macro uncertainty. Energy Economics, 81, 79-94.
Baker, S.R., Bloom, N., and Davis. A.J., (2016). “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1593–1636.
Balakeffi, L. R., Oboh, V., Augustine, U., & Fwangkwal, M. P. (2019). Uncertainties in Global Economic Policy and Nigeria's Export Earnings. International Journal of Business, Economics and Management, 6(1), 23-38.
Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., Kim, W. J., & Kyei, C. (2019). The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea. International Review of Economics & Finance, 59, 150-163.
Basu, S., & Bundick, B. (2017). Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand. Econometrica, 85(3), 937-958.
Bibow, J. (2013). Keynes on monetary policy, finance and uncertainty: Liquidity preference theory and the global financial crisis. Routledge.
Bloom, N. (2009), ‘The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks’, Econometrica 77, 623–685.
Caggiano G. Castelnuovo E and Groshenny N, (2014), Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions, Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, (C), 78-92
Davis, S. J. (2016). An index of global economic policy uncertainty (No. w22740). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Edeme, R. K., Emeka, E. T., & Ogbuabor, J. E. (2024). Global Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Unemployment-Economic Growth Relationship in Nigeria. Journal of Development Policy and Practice, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/24551333231208296
Ferrari-Filho, F., and Octavio A. C. (2005) "The concept of uncertainty in Post Keynesian theory and in institutional economics." Journal of Economic Issues, vol. 39, no. 3, 2005, p. 579+. Gale Academic OneFile, Accessed 30 May 2021.
Folawewo A.O and Adeboje, O.M. (2017). “Macroeconomic Determinants of
Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African
States” African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 197—210, June
Fontaine, I., Razafindravaosolonirina, J., & Didier, L. (2018). Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR. China Economic Review, 51, 1-19.
Fontanari, C., Palumbo, A., & Salvatori, C. (2020). Potential output in theory and practice: A revision and update of Okun's original method. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 54, 247-266.
Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: estimation, testing, and inference, Journal of Econometrics, 93, 334-368.
Hansen, B. E. (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica, 68(3), 575-603
Hidalgo, J., Lee, J., & Seo, M. H. (2019). Robust inference for threshold regression models. Journal of Econometrics, 210(2), 291-309.
International Labour Organisation. (2021) ILOSTAT https://ilostat.ilo.org/
International Monetary Fund. (2012). Coping with high debt and sluggish growth. World Economic Outlook. World Economic and Financial Survey.
Ji, Q., Liu, B. Y., Nehler, H., & Uddin, G. S. (2018). Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach. Energy Economics, 76, 115-126.
Jurado, Kyle, Sydney C. Ludvigson, and Serena Ng. 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty." American Economic Review, 105 (3): 1177-1216.
Kandoussi M. and Langot F. (2020). Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics Discussion Paper Series. IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. IZA DP No. 13438.
Kang, W., Ratti, R. A., & Vespignani, J. (2020). Impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies. Applied Economics, 52(22), 2392-2407.
Kurov, A., & Stan, R. (2018). Monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news. Journal of Banking & Finance, 86, 127-142.
Liu, G., & Zhang, C. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China. China Economic Review, 63, 101279.
National Bureau of Statistics (2020) Labor Force Statistics: Unemployment and Underemployment Report (Q4 2020) Retrieved from https://nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1238
Office of National Statistics: (2021). UNEM04: Unemployment rate retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsz/lms ".
Ozturk, E. O., & Sheng, X. S. (2018). Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty. Journal of international money and finance, 88, 276-295.
Petrosky-Nadeau, N., Zhang, L., & Kuehn, L. A. (2018). Endogenous disasters. American Economic Review, 108(8), 2212-2245.
Pizzinelli, C., Theodoridis, K., & Zanetti, F. (2020). State dependence in labor market fluctuations. International Economic Review, 61(3), 1027-1072.
Schaal E., (2017) “Uncertainty and Unemployment”, November 2017, Econometrica, Vol.85, No.6, pages1675-1721.
Sen, S. (2020). Investment decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 43(2), 267-280.
Shinohara T., Okuda T and Nakajima, J (2020). “Characteristics of uncertainty Indices in the Macroeconomy” Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-5, Bank of Japan.
Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016Measuring Economic Policy. " Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
Van Robays, I. (2016). Macroeconomic uncertainty and oil price volatility. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(5), 671-693
Wang, G. J., Xie, C., Wen, D., & Zhao, L. (2019). When Bitcoin meets economic policy uncertainty (EPU): Measuring risk spillover effect from EPU to Bitcoin. Finance Research Letters, 31.
Watugala, S. W. (2019). Economic uncertainty, trading activity, and commodity futures volatility. Journal of Futures Markets, 39(8), 921-945.
Wensheng, K., Ratti, R., & Vespignani, J. (2017). Impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies. Tasmanian School of Business and Economics University of Tasmania Discussion Paper Series N 2017-01 retrieved from https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/959829/The-Impact-of-Global-uncertainty-the-global-economy.pdf
World Bank(2021), Youth Unemployment Rate for Nigeria [SLUEM1524ZSNGA], retrieved from
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLUEM1524ZSNGA, August 19, 2021.
Yi, Su; Xiao-li, An (2018). Application of threshold regression analysis to study the impact of regional technological innovation level on sustainable development. Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, 89(), 27–32. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.005
Objavljeno
2024/10/30
Rubrika
Originalni naučni članak
