MODELING AS AN APPROACH TO PANDEMIC UNCERTAINTY MANAGEMENT: MORTALITY ASSESSMENT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Assessment of the COVID-19 Global and Local Effects
Keywords:
covid-19, public health, pandemics, forecasting, transmission, risk assessment
Abstract
The progression of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has urged medical and scientific community to attempt to model and predict the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Forecasting possible course of the COVID-19 pandemic helped to better understand the nuanced effects of the adopted policy measures and directed us towards the future actions which might need to be undertaken. In this article, we briefly summarize few selected projection approaches used for estimating COVID-19 effects globally and locally (Serbia).
References
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4. Krouse HJ. COVID-19 and the widening gap in HEALTH Inequity. Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery. 2020;163:65–6. doi:10.1177/0194599820926463.
5. Wyper GM, Assunção R, Cuschieri S, Devleesschauwer B, Fletcher E, Haagsma JA, et al. Population vulnerability To COVID-19 in Europe: A burden of disease analysis. Archives of Public Health. 2020;78. doi:10.1186/s13690-020-00433-y.
6. Friedman J, Liu P, Troeger CE, Carter A, Reiner RC, Barber RM, et al. Predictive performance of international COVID-19 MORTALITY forecasting models. Nature Communications. 2021;12. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22457-w.
7. Reiner, R. C., Barber, R. M., Collins, J. K., Zheng, P., Adolph, C., Albright, J., et al. Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. Nature Medicine. 2020;27:94–105. doi:10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9.
8. Kandel N, Chungong S, Omaar A, Xing J. Health security capacities in the context of Covid-19 outbreak: An analysis of international health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries. The Lancet. 2020;395:1047–53. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30553-5.
9. Neogi SB, Preetha GS. Assessing health systems' responsiveness in TACKLING COVID-19 pandemic. Indian Journal of Public Health. 2020;64:211. doi:10.4103/ijph.ijph_471_20.
10. Estimation of excess mortality due to COVID-19 [Internet]. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Available from: http://www.healthdata.org/node/8660 (accessed July 27, 2021).
11. Global COVID-19 Forecast Comparison [Internet]. GitHub. 2021. Available from: https://github.com/pyliu47/covidcompare (accessed on 27 July 2021).
12. Li ML, Bouardi HT, Lami OS, Trikalinos TA, Trichakis NK, Bertsimas D. Forecasting covid-19 and analyzing the effect of government interventions. 2020. doi:10.1101/2020.06.23.20138693.
13. Forecasting the Healthcare Burden of COVID-19 in LMICs [Internet]. Imperial College London., & MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. 2020. Available from: https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/ (accessed on 27 July 2021).
14. COVID-19 projections using machine learning [Internet]. Gu, Y. 2020. Available from: https://covid19-projections.com/ (accessed on 27 July 2021).
15. COVID-19 Confirmed and Forecasted Case Data [Internet]. Los Alamos national Laboratory COVID-19 Team. Available from: https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/ (accessed on 27 July 2021).
16. Fast and Accurate Forecasting of COVID-19 Deaths [Internet]. Srivastava, A., Xu, T. 2020. Available from : http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05180 (accessed on 27 July 2021).
17. COVID-19 National Info page [Internet]. Ministry of Health, Republic of Serbia. 2020. Available from: https://covid19.data.gov.rs (accessed on 27 July 2021).
18. COVID-19 Statistics in Serbia [Internet]. Ministry of Health, Republic of Serbia. 2020. Available from: https://covid19.rs/homepage-english (accessed on 27 July 2021).
19. Statistical release Number 203 – Year LXXI, 26 July 2021 Life births and deaths, January-June 2021. SORS – Statistical Office of Serbia. 2021. Available from: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/PdfE/G20211203.pdf (accessed 27 July 2021).
20. Statistical release Number 017 – Year LXXI, 25 January 2021 Life births and deaths, January-December 2020. SORS – Statistical Office of Serbia. 2021. Available from: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/PdfE/G20211017.pdf (accessed 27 July 2021).
21. Tashman LJ. Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: An analysis and review. International Journal of Forecasting 2000;16:437–50. doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(00)00065-0.
22. Viner RM, Russell SJ, Croker H, Packer J, Ward J, Stansfield C, et al. School closure and management practices During coronavirus OUTBREAKS including covid-19: A rapid systematic review. The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health 2020;4:397–404. doi:10.1016/s2352-4642(20)30095-x.
23. Atkeson, A. What Will Be the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the Us? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios. 2020. In Nber Working Paper Series (NBER Working Papers, Issue 26867). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Published
2021/10/06
Section
Reviews