MODELOVANJE KAO NAČIN UPRAVLJANJA NEIZVESNOŠĆU PANDEMIJE: PROCENA SMRTNOSTI U KOVID-19 PANDEMIJI
Procena globalnih i lokalnih efekata COVID-19 pandemije
Ključne reči:
covid-19, javno zdravlje, pandemija, predviđanje, transmisija, procena rizika
Sažetak
Progresija pandemije bolesti izazvane koronavirusom (COVID-19) motivisala je medicinsku i naučnu zajednicu da pokuša da modeluje i predvidi transmisiju SARS-CoV-2. Predviđanje mogućeg toka COVID-19 pandemije je pomoglo da bolje razumemo nijansirane efekte usvojenih mera, kao i da se usmerimo ka budućim merama koje bi trebalo sprovesti. U ovom radu smo pokušali da sumiramo nekoliko odabranih pristupa koji su korišćeni za procenu efekata COVID-19 pandemije, kako na globalnom tako i na lokalnom nivou (Srbija).
Reference
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3. Gostin LO. The coronavirus Pandemic 1 year on—what went wrong? JAMA. 2021;325:1132. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.3207.
4. Krouse HJ. COVID-19 and the widening gap in HEALTH Inequity. Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery. 2020;163:65–6. doi:10.1177/0194599820926463.
5. Wyper GM, Assunção R, Cuschieri S, Devleesschauwer B, Fletcher E, Haagsma JA, et al. Population vulnerability To COVID-19 in Europe: A burden of disease analysis. Archives of Public Health. 2020;78. doi:10.1186/s13690-020-00433-y.
6. Friedman J, Liu P, Troeger CE, Carter A, Reiner RC, Barber RM, et al. Predictive performance of international COVID-19 MORTALITY forecasting models. Nature Communications. 2021;12. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22457-w.
7. Reiner, R. C., Barber, R. M., Collins, J. K., Zheng, P., Adolph, C., Albright, J., et al. Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. Nature Medicine. 2020;27:94–105. doi:10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9.
8. Kandel N, Chungong S, Omaar A, Xing J. Health security capacities in the context of Covid-19 outbreak: An analysis of international health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries. The Lancet. 2020;395:1047–53. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30553-5.
9. Neogi SB, Preetha GS. Assessing health systems' responsiveness in TACKLING COVID-19 pandemic. Indian Journal of Public Health. 2020;64:211. doi:10.4103/ijph.ijph_471_20.
10. Estimation of excess mortality due to COVID-19 [Internet]. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Available from: http://www.healthdata.org/node/8660 (accessed July 27, 2021).
11. Global COVID-19 Forecast Comparison [Internet]. GitHub. 2021. Available from: https://github.com/pyliu47/covidcompare (accessed on 27 July 2021).
12. Li ML, Bouardi HT, Lami OS, Trikalinos TA, Trichakis NK, Bertsimas D. Forecasting covid-19 and analyzing the effect of government interventions. 2020. doi:10.1101/2020.06.23.20138693.
13. Forecasting the Healthcare Burden of COVID-19 in LMICs [Internet]. Imperial College London., & MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. 2020. Available from: https://mrc-ide.github.io/global-lmic-reports/ (accessed on 27 July 2021).
14. COVID-19 projections using machine learning [Internet]. Gu, Y. 2020. Available from: https://covid19-projections.com/ (accessed on 27 July 2021).
15. COVID-19 Confirmed and Forecasted Case Data [Internet]. Los Alamos national Laboratory COVID-19 Team. Available from: https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/ (accessed on 27 July 2021).
16. Fast and Accurate Forecasting of COVID-19 Deaths [Internet]. Srivastava, A., Xu, T. 2020. Available from : http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05180 (accessed on 27 July 2021).
17. COVID-19 National Info page [Internet]. Ministry of Health, Republic of Serbia. 2020. Available from: https://covid19.data.gov.rs (accessed on 27 July 2021).
18. COVID-19 Statistics in Serbia [Internet]. Ministry of Health, Republic of Serbia. 2020. Available from: https://covid19.rs/homepage-english (accessed on 27 July 2021).
19. Statistical release Number 203 – Year LXXI, 26 July 2021 Life births and deaths, January-June 2021. SORS – Statistical Office of Serbia. 2021. Available from: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/PdfE/G20211203.pdf (accessed 27 July 2021).
20. Statistical release Number 017 – Year LXXI, 25 January 2021 Life births and deaths, January-December 2020. SORS – Statistical Office of Serbia. 2021. Available from: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/PdfE/G20211017.pdf (accessed 27 July 2021).
21. Tashman LJ. Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: An analysis and review. International Journal of Forecasting 2000;16:437–50. doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(00)00065-0.
22. Viner RM, Russell SJ, Croker H, Packer J, Ward J, Stansfield C, et al. School closure and management practices During coronavirus OUTBREAKS including covid-19: A rapid systematic review. The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health 2020;4:397–404. doi:10.1016/s2352-4642(20)30095-x.
23. Atkeson, A. What Will Be the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the Us? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios. 2020. In Nber Working Paper Series (NBER Working Papers, Issue 26867). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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2021/10/06
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