Analiza predviđanja odabranih zdravstvenih i ekonomskih indikatora u zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope i Balkana
Sažetak
Uvod/Cilj. Zdravstveni indikatori pružaju uporedive informacije relevantne za definisanje zdravstvenih ciljeva. Cilj ovog rada bio je da se izvrši analiza predviđanja odabranih indikatora koji bi mogli da pomognu u predviđanju budućih potreba u ekonomiji zdravstva i sprečavanju problema koji bi u budućnosti mogli prediktivno da rastu. Metode. Zdravstveni pokazatelji su prikupljeni iz javno dostupnih baza podataka Svetske zdravstvene organizacije i Eurostata. Koristili smo tehniku kvantitativnog predviđanja koja se obično koristi za istorijske podatke, za predviđanje nekoliko godina u budućnost, uzimajući u obzir odabrane indikatore povezane sa zdravstvom i ekonomijom. Rezultati. Ukupni izdaci za zdravstvo kao procenat bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) do 2025. godine povećaće se u većini od 17 analiziranih zemalja. Procenat plaćanja za zdravstvene usluge direktno iz budžeta domaćinstava smanjiće se u polovini analiziranih zemalja, dok će vrednosti BDP-a, izražene u američkim dolarima, znatno porasti u poređenju sa poslednjom analiziranom godinom (2017), osim u Grčkoj. Pokazatelj mortaliteta novorođenčadi pokazuje da će se brojevi smanjiti u svakoj analiziranoj zemlji, dok će procenat gradskog stanovništva rasti gotovo u svakoj zemlji, osim u Estoniji. Očekivani životni vek će se povećati u svakoj od pomenutih zemalja. Zaključak. Indikatori povezani sa zdravljem i ekonomijom moraju se pratiti tokom vremena, jer pružaju značajne informacije o relevantnim pitanjima u zdravstvenom sistemu. Štaviše, oni mogu ukazivati na promene koje bi trebalo izvršiti kako bi se postigao napredak u svakoj pojedinačnoj zemlji.
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